Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert @KMooreGilbert
Academic. Author. Advocate. https://t.co/ZdxumawUcQ https://t.co/9vIz0sEnvZ Insta: @kyliemooregilbert Email: [email protected] Australia Joined November 2020-
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A wonderful tribute by @harari_yuval to the great Marc Bloch in whose debt so many of us stand.
Yesterday I had the privilege of attending Marc Bloch's reburial ceremony at the Panthéon – Paris' monument to the most outstanding citizens of France. Bloch was honored not only as one of the greatest French historians, but also as a man who chose resistance over safety when his
Interesting
This Iran oil sale authorization (GL X) explicitly covers entities sanctioned under the Global Terrorism Sanctions Regulations, the authority under which OFAC designated the Central Bank of Iran (2019) and the Ministry of Petroleum/NIOC (2020) for financing the IRGC-QF and Hizballah. Those designations exist because the CBI and MoP were conduits for IRGC-QF revenue generation. Authorizing their oil transactions is authorizing the IRGC's cash flow. Iran's FY2025/26 budget allocates 1/3 of all oil exports (~583K bpd, valued at $12.4B) directly to the armed forces — IRGC, Army, LEF — to sell on the market.
The U.S. Treasury just issued a new license, "General License X," that reopens Iran's oil (including petrochemicals) business to the world. Here's what it lets Iran do, and why each piece matters. 1/3 It lets Iran produce, ship, and sell its oil — not just unload what's already
یک جنبش سیاسی احمقانه، اغلب به قدرت گرفتن جنبشِ متقابلِ خود (که به همان اندازه احمقانه است) کمک میکند. برای مثال، افراطگراییِ «ووک» در چپِ آمریکا، به قدرت گرفتن ترامپ، که واکنش به ووک بود، کمک کرد. یکی از پیامدهای منفیِ فراوانِ جنبش پهلوی این بود که شکستِ اجتنابناپذیرش، بیتردید در میان بسیاری از ایرانیان احساس استیصال ایجاد خواهد کرد و میل به روی آوردن به مبارزهٔ مسلحانه را تقویت میکند. این وضعیت به مجاهدین، که خود جنبشی غیردموکراتیک هستند، فرصت میدهد بار دیگر به یک نیروی سیاسی جدی تبدیل شوند. اگر بهجای نمایش مضحکِ پهلوی، یک جنبش واقعاً دموکراتیک شکل گرفته بود، گروههایی مانند مجاهدین همچنان در حاشیهٔ سیاست باقی میماندند.
إيران الحرة 2026- إلى الأمام نحو جمهورية ديمقراطية عهدي الدفاع عن حرية وشرف واستقلال إيران في مواجهة أي نوع من الديكتاتورية والتبعية في طريق شائك مليئ بالمحن والصعوبات ولکن لا ضیر! باقون على العهد هذا عهدي وعهدنا مع شهداء طريق الحرية ومع الشعب الإيراني. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
For the record I listen to ABC content regularly and think their Iran analysis overall has been pretty good
Quite shocked to hear John Lyons on ABC radio claiming the reason for Republican pushback against the Iran MOU is that many of them are backed by the Israel lobby. Yes Israel is pissed because this deal is pretty clearly detrimental to its interests and was negotiated over its head and against its objections. But anyone with even the most rudimentary knowledge of US politics can see that this deal is the very antithesis of the position the Republican party adopted on Iran for decades. Including until very recently, Trump himself, who after all was the architect of 'maximum pressure' during his first term. This is why traditional Republicans, many of them longstanding Iran hawks, and some MAGA aligned ones too, are aghast at an MOU which compromises decades of US Iran policy. Claiming that all of these Republicans aren't thinking of the US's own national interests and are simply under the thumb of the Israel lobby is at best lazy and ignorant and at worst, well, you know.
Ukraine has just done something astonishing. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has just launched TrophyLab - essentially making access to all captured Russian weapon technologies free for foreign governments, research institutions and the defence industry. They will even send physical hardware to allies for examination and to rip it apart to discover Russian military secrets. As well as technical specifications, blueprints and research results. The website includes listings for armoured vehicles, missiles, aircraft, UAVs, EW assets, UGVs, cruise missiles etc. Governments usually want to keep this kind of captured tech a secret for its own advantage. Ukraine has decided to make it (relatively, I think) open access for the benefit of the West.
Free Reza and Nasrin!
As attention shifts to the latest developments involving #Iran, we cannot lose sight of the people still paying the price for the regime's repression. Reza Khandan has been arbitrarily detained since December 2024, when he was arrested on old charges related to creating pins in
The state of Iran's economy: up to 7% of the workforce lost their jobs during the war. Year-on-year inflation has doubled since January. Repairing energy facilities alone might cost $19bn. Poor people are paying for meat and bread in installments. In theory, the "reconstruction fund" should be a powerful inducement to make a final deal. But there are numerous reasons to doubt it will materialize. Gulf states are loath to pour money into Iran. A big chunk of Iran's economy is owned by the IRGC, which means any prospective investment would run into a thicket of American sanctions. And even if those sanctions were lifted, how many foreign investors would rush to get into business with the Guards? economist.com/middle-east-an…
The Iran war is over. But the US-led order in the Middle East is now in question. In this @ForeignAffairs essay, @ianbremmer and I argue: • Erratic & unpredictable American conduct, along with an inability to achieve a decisive victory, convinced US partners that deep dependence on Washington is a liability, not just an asset. •Their response will be to accelerate effort to diversify away from the US, including by forming new coalitions that afford them greater agency. • “We are no longer interested in being an American satellite state,” one senior GCC official put it bluntly. • Middle powers like the UK, France, Turkey, India & Pakistan will be the primary beneficiaries in a more diversified Middle East. • China, while unable & unwilling to take on the burdens of running the region, is well positioned as a predictable low-cost alternative to over reliance on the US. • Post #Iran war- the Middle East may just be the leading edge. From Europe’s push for defense autonomy to Asia’s growing nuclear hedging, the same diagnosis is spreading globally: betting less on the US is a strategic imperative. Read & share the full essay at: foreignaffairs.com/iran/long-shad…
Unreal: the symbolism of Trump signing a surrender agreement at Versailles in which the US agrees to pay massive reparations is just too perfect. I wouldn't be surprised if Macron weaponized Trump's complete ignorance of history and told him something like: "Mr. President, Versailles is where the most consequential deal of the 20th century was signed. Yours deserves the same stage." Either that or Macron stumbled into the perfect historical parallel through sheer obliviousness - which, knowing him, is actually even more likely.
Le Président Trump a signé ce soir à Versailles l’accord entre l’Iran et les États-Unis. Cet accord ouvre la voie à une paix durable et permet la réouverture du détroit d’Ormuz. C’est un pas important dans la bonne direction pour nos compatriotes
The “new regime” in Iran that Trump claims is so much better than its predecessors just sentenced singer Parastoo Ahmadi and eight musicians to 74 lashes, a two-year travel ban, and a two-year ban on artistic activity. Her crime? Daring to record a private performance. Women’s singing is forbidden in Iran.
This one has aged particularly well
What a rotten deal we made with Iran. We get nothing (except laughter at our stupidity). They get everything, including delay and big cash!
Hmmmmm and now what 9 years later?!
Iran was on its last legs and ready to collapse until the U.S. came along and gave it a life-line in the form of the Iran Deal: $150 billion
@blackbelt392299 Pretty sure nobody's graduating with a first from Cambridge with a low IQ
100% true. Within a couple of months of moving back to Australia and starting my PhD I had learnt not to mention the fact that I was a Cambridge graduate because this somehow threatened the egos of my mostly male PhD colleagues, who had come up through the Australian university system. Countless other examples too. Women learn to minimise their achievements so as not to appear threatening, while so many men gas themselves up and get rewarded for it.
The smarter women are, the more hostility they face. In the U.S. & China, the higher women’s IQs, the less they're liked—and the more they’re undermined by coworkers. Men pay no price for being bright. It's long past time to recognize female intellect as an asset, not a threat.
All the figures who are part of the #Iran regime today were part of previous iterations of the Islamic Republic. Same people, slightly different positions. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was on the same Supreme National Security Council that issued the live fire order against Iranians protesting. These men are willing to kill to save the regime and they're fundamentally no different from their predecessors. Offering them investment deals and an outstretched hand won't change their ideology. It's not for sale.
Reporter: The Iranian regime continues to kill their own people. Trump: The majority of that took place during the first and second regimes, much more so than now.
Meanwhile incredible scenes unfolding outside of sofi stadium Iranians are handing out t shirts with names & faces of protestors murdered by the Islamic regime on January 8-9 The IRGC wont be allowed to wash the blood of these youth through sports
Do not listen to the cultists trying to convince you otherwise: the United States, and to a degree, Israel, have suffered a profound strategic setback with the signing of the interim deal or the MOU with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The regime, though tactically bruised, now holds immense leverage that renders months of bombing and the future threat of force largely irrelevant. Iran retains its highly enriched uranium and the regional strike capabilities that allow it to threaten multiple states and impose political costs if its demands are not met. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively become an Iranian instrument of global economic coercion. Tehran has also succeeded in tying the fate of Hezbollah to the agreement, preserving billions of dollars in investments in the group’s military, political, and social infrastructure, turning Lebanon into a permanent forward operating platform against Israel. Add to this the billions likely to flow into the regime through sanctions relief and the lifting of the naval blockade, enabling Tehran to rebuild, rearm, and re‑entrench. One outcome is certain: the regime will now pursue nuclear armament with maximal determination, even if that takes five to ten years to achieve; and they'll have delivery vehicles, long-range ballistic missiles, for deploying those nukes; a North Korea-like state in the heart of the Middle East. America’s Gulf partners, undermined and abandoned, are now forced to court Tehran to protect their own stability. The foundational bargain of U.S. protection in exchange for sustaining the PetroDollar and aligning with Washington has been undermined. The Iranian people, whose sacrifices earlier this year briefly threatened the regime, have been effectively traded away; used to trigger a half‑baked war that ultimately strengthened the Islamic Republic’s regional and international posture. Hezbollah has been rescued, and Iranian‑backed militias now believe the regime will stand by them even when costs are high. And tragically, what began in Gaza on October 7 with Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel has achieved far more than the Islamic Republic could have imagined: isolating Israel, halting Saudi‑Israeli normalization, reviving the so‑called “resistance” narrative, and weakening the moderate Arab‑Sunni states that champion development over destruction. This is what American retreat and diminished power look like. It may mark the accelerated beginning of the end of U.S. global primacy, driven by strategic miscalculation and failed leadership. China and other adversaries are watching with satisfaction while Americans argue over trivialities, oblivious to the geopolitical abyss opening beneath the country’s economic, political, and cultural foundations.
Or in other words, this isnt the end of the matter, expect round 3 at some point...
The Memorandum of Misunderstanding between the US and Iran: The US believes Iran will restore the Strait of Hormuz as a secure international waterway, make significant nuclear concessions, and potentially abandon its revolutionary ideology--including its opposition to the US and
Kaveh Shahrooz کاو... @kshahrooz
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53K Followers 435 Following Author - Associate Professor - Directing Staff - CEO of @MENAanalytica Interests: MENA, Gulf, Network-centric statecraft Views are my own
Haviv Rettig Gur @havivrettiggur
93K Followers 2K Following Israel, Middle East, politics. Ask Haviv Anything podcast (https://t.co/cMqKF00MsF), Mideast analyst @TheFP, @TimesofIsrael. @RachelGur.
Michael McFaul @McFaul
888K Followers 2K Following Professor of Political Science, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute & Hoover Institution, all at Stanford University. U.S. Ambassador to Russia, 2012-2014.
Simon Schama @simon_schama
190K Followers 4K Following The past is never dead. It's not even past (Faulkner) . Historian, writer, art critic, cook, BBC presenter but not necessarily in that order
Free Reza V @freerezav
108 Followers 250 Following Reza Valizadeh is a journalist and dual Iranian American national who is wrongfully detained in Iran in violation of U.S. and international law. #freerezav
Alicia Kearns MP @aliciakearns
45K Followers 6K Following Conservative MP for Rutland, Stamford, and the South Kesteven and Harborough Villages. Shadow National Security and Safeguarding Minister.
Claire Lehmann @clairlemon
251K Followers 7K Following Founder, editor @quillette, contributing writer @australian, @thedispatch 📧 subscribe: https://t.co/04OP3ssOXf
Jonathan Haidt @JonHaidt
467K Followers 2K Following Social psychologist at NYU-Stern, working to roll back the phone-based childhood. Please visit https://t.co/ZjBuXdDYYg & https://t.co/7aVAmOTTcT
Sara Afshar @SaraAfshar
6K Followers 6K Following Filmmaker & journalist. Director of BAFTA nominated ‘Syria's Disappeared’. Watch free on C4: https://t.co/Z55f8JEFCv
Skylar Thompson @SkyylarThompson
774 Followers 666 Following Iran and more. Deputy Director at @hra_news @hrana_english - views are my own
janekinninmont @janekinninmont
12K Followers 13K Following Peace, security, multilateralism. CEO of United Nations Association UK. Advisor @WiltonPark @CARPOBonn @law_middle. Co-host @disordershow. Opinions=personal
Roxana Saberi @roxanasaberi
19K Followers 1K Following Journalist | Author | 🌍Explorer | Iran | Japan 🇯🇵 | Fargo roots 🎹 Piano tinkerer. E-mail: [email protected]
MESA @MESA_1966
19K Followers 333 Following The Middle East Studies Association (MESA) brings together scholars, educators and those interested in the study of the region from all over the world.
Ali Alfoneh علی آ... @Alfoneh
10K Followers 651 Following Political scientist by training: #Iran, #Civil-Military Relations, #IRGC, #QF, in Persian🇺🇸🇩🇰. See also: https://t.co/jlxr3SOyPG
Dahlia Scheindlin @dahliasc
15K Followers 3K Following Political analyst, recovering strategist, PhD, Isrl-Pal/ME, & other global stuff, @haaretzcom, @BBCWorld, @CenturyIntl, Board member, @2states1homelan
Robert Horvath @RG_Horvath
6K Followers 5K Following Academic @Latrobe. Critic of autocracy and its apologists. Sanctioned by Russian Foreign Ministry. Author of Putin's Fascists (2021).
Omid Memarian @Omid_M
114K Followers 4K Following Journalist, Analyst, @ucbsoj, #Iran, #Politics, #Journalism, #Media, #MiddleEast, #Art, Communications Director at @dawnmenaorg
Golnaz Esfandiari @GEsfandiari
133K Followers 2K Following Managing Editor, RFE/RL's Radio Farda. Retweets NOT Endorsement. Views my own. Expect typos. Email: esfandiarig at https://t.co/bwTwQ5G1eG

































