Ken Tumin @KenTumin

Forecasters who can transpose the PPI and CPI into the May PCE are expecting a firm core print (and wide wedge with the CPI) on Thursday morning, yielding a 3.4% increase from a year earlier. For context, four FOMC participants expect core PCE to end the year at 3.2% or lower. Another four expect it to end the year at 3.5% of higher. The remaining 10 have it at 3.3%-3.4% on a Q4-Q4 basis.

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Appreciate the chance to share my expertise on the Synapse collapse & BaaS with @MorePerfectUS. While I don't agree banning bank-fintech partnerships is the right policy solution, real risks remain -- and, arguably, are greater now than when Synapse failed in 2024, leaving end users unable to access around $265 million at the time. While much of that money was thankfully returned to depositors, as much as $95 million remains unaccounted for, with impacted end users still looking for answers. On the technology side, the use of FBO structures is still commonplace -- including as part of stablecoin infrastructure -- with no publicly known regulatory changes that would encourage banks, infrastructure providers, and user-facing programs to avoid the mistakes that led to Synapse. The situation on the consumer-facing marketing side is, unquestionably, worse than it was when Synapse failed. With the explosion of stablecoins, we have seen an increase in banking-like products that appear to offer "dollar" accounts, but may or may not enjoy FDIC insurance protection. At the same time, the regulators who oversee consumer compliance have been gutted. The cuts at the CFPB have been the most extreme and the most publicized. But consumer compliance, including how third-party programs market their offerings, is functionally handled through programs' bank partners, most of which have $10 billion or less in assets. These banks' regulators for consumer compliance, the Fed, the OCC, and the FDIC, have been explicitly directed to de-emphasize non-financial risks, which include marketing/consumer compliance. (Find the full episode about Synapse at More Perfect Union.)

If you're an Ally Invest customer, you have free access to many mutual funds, including the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX). It's easy for Ally customers to use VUSXX instead of the Ally savings account (which now only pays 3.00% APY) for their savings. VUSXX’s current compound yield is 3.67%, and since it holds mostly Treasuries, the interest can generally be exempt from state and local income tax.

The Money Cruncher, CPA @money_cruncher

2 days ago

One thing I dont like about Fidelity is how expensive their MMFs are: $SPAXX - expense of 0.42%, net yield 3.29% $FDLXX - expense of 0.42%, yield of 3.28% But Vanguard has: $VMFXX - expense of 0.11%, yield of 3.57% $VUSXX - expense of 0.07%, yield of 3.61% That's why I keep

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Odds that there’ll be no Fed rate cuts through 2026 are 100.0% (up slightly from 99.8% last week.) Odds that there’ll be at least one rate hike by the end of 2026 are 88.1% (up from 57.1% last week.) Current fed funds rate = 3.50%-3.75%. With no Fed rate cuts and with significant odds of a rate hike, we may see additional 4% online savings accounts as 2027 nears. Odds are from CME FedWatch.

The Big 5 online savings account APYs from Sep 18, 2024 to Jun 22, 2026: Ally: 4.20% → 3.00% (-120 bps) Amex: 4.25% → 3.10% (-115 bps) CapOne: 4.20% → 3.00% (-120 bps) Synchrony: 4.50% → 3.30% (-120 bps) Marcus: 4.40% → 3.40% (-100 bps) Big 5 Average: 4.31% → 3.16% (-115 bps) Rate cuts since the 9/17/25 Fed rate cut: 50 bps at Synchrony (fell 10 bps on Jun 16) 50 bps at Ally (fell 10 bps on Jun 3) 50 bps at Capital One/Discover (fell 10 bps on Jun 2) 25 bps at Marcus (fell 10 bps on Jun 2) 40 bps at Amex (fell 10 bps on May 20)

Top 5 online savings accounts by APY as of 6/22/2026 & thread on online savings account (OSA) yields and how OSA & money market fund (MMF) yields have changed since the first Fed rate cut (9/18/2024): Top 5 Status: No changes from last week Big 5 Status: Synchrony lowered its rate by 10 bps to 3.30% APY.

Alan Greenspan has died at 100. During his 18½ years leading the Fed, he reached rock-star heights and shaped the U.S. economy under presidents of both parties. Milton Friedman called him the greatest of all time. 2008 recast his legacy.

See How Owning a Home Is Getting More Expensive in Every Way | @WSJ “A home buyer in 2019 could expect to spend about $20,000 a year on basic homeownership expenses” “By 2025, that annual bill had soared above $28,500, outpacing inflation” wsj.com/economy/housin…

They Looked Like They Were Getting Rich on Polymarket—but None of It Was Real - WSJ wsj.com/business/media…

How yields have changed from last week: x.com/kentumin/statu…

Ken Tumin @KenTumin

2 weeks ago

An end-of-week look at how Treasury and CD yields compare for maturities from 6 months to 5 years. This chart from @DepositQuestKCJ compares Treasury yields with top yields of brokered CDs and nationally-available direct CDs from banks and credit unions. While Treasury note

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An end-of-week look at how Treasury and CD yields compare for maturities from 6 months to 5 years. This chart from @DepositQuestKCJ compares Treasury yields with top yields of brokered CDs and nationally-available direct CDs from banks and credit unions. The Treasury yield curve started to flatten, as short- and mid-term yields increased after a hawkish Fed meeting. CD yields continue to lead, especially on the shorter terms. depositquest.substack.com/p/treasury-par…

One Investor’s Race to Get $80 Million Out of Private Credit | @miriamgottfried for @WSJ “Many are waiting in line to get their money out of the once-popular asset class as redemption requests accelerate” wsj.com/finance/invest…

So in a 20% drawdown, it took stocks on average 24 months to recover while a 60/40 portfolio took only 11 months. Interesting that the 60/40 didn’t have similar advantages for smaller drawdowns. Perhaps 20%+ drawdowns tend to be followed by recessions that spark the Fed to cut rates which helps bond returns.

One note on today’s DQ Savings/MMA leaderboard - Peak Bank’s Envision High-Yield Savings Account is in the top 20 with a non-promo rate of 4.01% APY. It has regularly been in the top 20 for almost two years now. In August 2024, its APY reached a peak of 5.33%. Peak Bank is the online-only division of Idaho First Bank, a community bank with $1.37B in assets and eight branches. Peak Bank’s HYSA and CDs appear to be significantly contributing to the bank’s deposit growth. In the two years before Peak Bank, Idaho First added two branches and deposits grew by about 20%. In the last two years since Peak Bank was launched, Idaho First’s deposits have grown 112%, and no branches have been added.

Deposit Quest Substack @DepositQuestKCJ

6 days ago

Best Nationally Available Savings Account/Money Market Account Rates, June 19, 2026 Link in comments.

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“Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market.” — Peter Lynch

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi

6 days ago

At the start of the year EVERYBODY predicted a steeper yield curve... wow was that wrong

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I reviewed these Fidelity credit union brokered CD offerings last year when Fidelity launched this feature. x.com/KenTumin/statu…

Ken Tumin @KenTumin

11 months ago

Fidelity has added brokered CDs from credit unions (called brokered Credit Union Shared Certificates). Fidelity customers can buy new-issue brokered CUSCs just like brokered bank CDs. Few things to note: 🧵 1/6 fidelity.com/fixed-income-b…

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One advantage of buying brokered CDs at Fidelity is that they offer CDs from credit unions. Credit union share certificates (essentially CDs) sometimes have rates higher than any CDs from banks. Yesterday’s Best Brokered CDs post by @DepositQuestKCJ provides three examples: The highest rates for CDs with 3-, 6- and 12-month terms were at Fidelity, and this was due to credit union share certificates. depositquest.substack.com/p/best-brokere…

Great review of yesterday's Fed meeting by @TreasuryBonds1 "PCE inflation was revised 90 basis points higher for 2026, while the projected federal funds rate was raised 40 basis points for 2026 and 50 basis points for 2027. That combination makes this one of the most hawkish SEP revisions in recent years."

TreasuryBonds.com @TreasuryBonds1

7 days ago

HERE'S EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE FED MEETING YESTERDAY: The Federal Reserve’s June projections delivered a clear message: Inflation is expected to remain significantly higher, while interest rates may stay elevated for much longer than previously anticipated.

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