Knut Hallberg @KnutHallberg
F.d. ekonom som följer makroekonomi och penningpolitik Stockholm Joined June 2011-
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Sverige står inför demografiska utmaningar. Befolkningen i arbetsför ålder väntas öka mycket långsamt framöver och tillväxten i arbetskraften halveras de kommande 10 åren. Denna utveckling reser en mängd frågor och kan i förlängningen påverka inflationen och ränteläget i Sverige
Långsammare befolkningstillväxt leder till omställning 🔸Befolkningen i arbetsför ålder väntas öka mycket långsamt framöver 🔸Ökat arbetskraftsdeltagande bland vissa grupper kan mildra situationen 🔸Inflationen och ränteläget i Sverige kan påverkas Läs: shorturl.at/kGjFV
Inflation på målet 🔸KPIF-inflationen nådde tvåprocentsmålet i maj 🔸Kortsiktigt ljus inflationsbild med orosmoln längs horisonten Läs mer i Veckobrevet: research.swedbank.se/default.aspx?c…
'Upward pressures on inflation coming from deglobalization, energy transition, defense spending, restrictions on immigration, easy financial conditions, and easy fiscal policy will keep interest rates higher for longer.' apolloacademy.com/the-outlook-fo…
Large investment needs due to structural change may have raised the natural rate of interest, says Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel. Given that monetary policy may also impact real long-term rates, we must communicate our views prudently ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
Trots det kraftiga raset i byggandet så tycks "bostadsbristen" fortsätta att minska. Befolkningstillväxten faller nämligen ännu snabbare. De senaste fyra åren har det byggts mer än vad som är motiverat utifrån befolkningsutvecklingen.
Ser ut som att hyrorna därmed kommer att börja stiga realt igen. –> fastighetsnytt.se/fastighetsmark…
If the signal from last week's US price data is confirmed in the months ahead — that is, getting to the #FederalReserve’s 2% #inflation target may be more challenging than many expect — policymakers, economists, and market participants may be forced to confront an inherently uncomfortable issue whose … Weak variant concerns the length of the soft-landing glide path to durable and sustainable 2% inflation and Strong variant concerns the multi-year appropriateness of the 2% inflation target. Underneath all this is the paradigm shift from last decade's world of insufficient aggregate demand to this decade's insufficiently flexible supply side. #economy #econtwitter #markets
Januariinflationen överraskade på uppsidan, trots större negativ korgeffekt än förväntat. Räntesänkning lär dröja och försiktighet är att rekommendera för Riksbanken. Ingenting är normalt i dessa tider.
New inflationary pressure is building up here: Suez Canal Transit Volume continues to plunge. (Chart via SRP)
Inflationen sjunker men kronan en risk: 🔸Sjunkande inflation i december 🔸Kronan är viktigt för inflationen 🔸Riksbanken behöver ett kapitaltillskott på cirka 45 mdkr Läs mer i veckobrevet: research.swedbank.se/default.aspx?c…
Intressant och bra analys kring kronans betydelse för inflationen
🇸🇪 Växelkursen är viktig för inflationen. Våra nya estimat tyder på ett snabbare genomslag från kronan på inflationen än vad tidigare studier visat. Kronan utgör en risk för vår prognos om att inflationen underskjuter målet till sommaren. Läs mer här: research.swedbank.se/default.aspx?c…
🇸🇪 Sista veckobrevet för 2023 är ute!🌟 🔸Räntan sänks betydligt mer än vad centralbankerna signalerar 🔸Trendbrott i inflationen flyttar fokus till kylan på arbetsmarknaden 🔸Finanspolitiska ramverket under översyn 🔸Supervalåret 2024 bitly.ws/36LIb
I veckobrevet sammanfattar vi veckan som gått med flertalet centralbanksbesked och det svenska inflationsutfallet för november. Dessutom blickar vi ut mot nästa veckas publicering av KI-barometern. Läs mer här: research.swedbank.se/default.aspx?c…
As usual, many great one-liners by Goodhart: "any central bank which had Willem Buiter as a member could not be accused of groupthink because he was a one-man anti-groupthink" ft.com/content/ce9de7… via @ft
Dollar and US Yields jump as US Nov labor market a lot hotter than expected: NFP +199k vs 185k expected, Unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% vs unch 3.9% expected w/household survey shows a whopping 747k new jobs. Avg hourly earnings +0.4% MoM vs 0.3% expected, +4% YoY as exp.
'Even if inflation declines, soaring debt levels, deglobalization, and populist pressures will keep rates higher for the next decade than they were in the decade following the 2008 financial crisis.' project-syndicate.org/commentary/era… by @krogoff
Starkt och tydligt tal från Tysklands vicekansler, tillika Miljöpartist…
🇸🇪 GDP was unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2, suggesting an annual decline of 0.5% in 2023. The decline in economic activity in September indicates further weakness ahead. Read more here: research.swedbank.se/default.aspx?c…
Germany’s BILD have published a 50-point manifesto in four different languages including English m.bild.de/politik/inland…
🇸🇪 Tillfällig “blipp” upp i tillväxten 🔸Obligationsutbudet kommer sannolikt öka mer än planerat🔸BNP växte igen under tredje kvartalet 🔸Långsamma löneökningar och stigande konkurser Läs mer här: rb.gy/g85n6
Gabriel Mellqvist @EkonomiGabriel
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Nicklas Andersson @Investeraren
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🇸🇪🇺🇦🇪�... @alltifisk
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EuroMarten @euromarten
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16K Followers 41 Following Senior Economist SEB Curious news hunter & trend searcher Mobile: +4670-445 1404
Andreas Wallström @anwallstrom
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viktor munkhammar @vmunkhammar
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7K Followers 489 Following +30y in macro and finance. Writing about AI, crypto, equity markets, macro and new trends in the economy. Opinions are always my own, reposts not endorsements.
Sveriges riksbank @riksbanken
19K Followers 22 Following Riksbanken är Sveriges centralbank och en myndighet under riksdagen. Här twittrar kommunikationsenheten om Riksbanken.
Affärsvärlden @AFV_magasin
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Daniela Marquardt @SRDanielaMar
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3K Followers 821 Following Chief Economist @DanskeBankSE. Labor Econ PhD.
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578 Followers 3K Following PhD student in Economics at Stockholm University. Interested in macroeconomics, environmental policy and the Chinese economy.
Kungenavkronan @AIKSEK1
87 Followers 835 FollowingTrends for United States
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