Kyle Handley @KyleLHandley
Professor of Economics at @UCSanDiego @GPS_UCSD. Trail runner, gravel biker, news reader, international economist, tweets on all of the above. kylehandley.com San Diego, California Joined March 2018-
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It seems a bit strange to call price controls a part of "Anti-fascist Economics" when price controls were one of the primary economic policies of Fascist Italy.
If people don’t agree with the prescriptions of mainstream economics, too many economists declare them incompetent. That’s exactly the anti-democratic attitude I’m examining in Anti-fascist Economics!
Tariffs are terrible industrial policy tools. Unlike free trade, tariffs: - are often calibrated to generate rents for favored industries and firms - change with political cycles that create uncertainty - distort incentives such that firms and consumers shift behavior in ways that lower welfare Obviously tariffs have gotten a bad rap lately, as they should. There, fixed it.
Tariffs are actually really great industrial policy tools. Unlike bans, tariffs: - Can be calibrated based on market conditions - Are flexible and can be adjusted over time - Work through incentives to get firms and investors to shift behavior Obviously tariffs have gotten a
I recently went through some of this research because I was asked to speak at the local school board on this question. I think it was oversold. The Geiser work in particular is not at all convincing and deliberately tried to confuse people and obfuscate what the UC task force on testing actually found. And what they found is SAT/ACT were valuable after conditioning on GPA, race, school FEs, gender and a host of other variables admission officers don't have or it's illegal for them to use. The crux is that something like a Lucas critique applies. You can predict multiple 4-year undergrad outcomes using only HS GPA and other legally usable demographic characteristics (and certainly many unobserved FEs that are by definiation not available to admissions). But it cannot be denied that SAT/ACT were also valuable predictors. The parameters people estimated under a system where the SAT/ACT scores were known admission officer targets, are not robust to a system that is blind to the SAT/ACT. Thats one of many reasons why this failed. Two sides of this. Part of it is probably demand side response where grades get inflated at the high school level, kids do more extra-curriculars, more AP stuff, and those signals get compressed and less informative. Another part is supply side. Admissions is not constrained by test scores, so they start optimizing over other objectives (that dare not be named) for the desired student body composition. I don't know the mix of the two, probably varies by university.
@jmhorp What if we all evaluated our well being in terms of gold bars? Wait, nevermind.
Hey, the markets called and they said there’s gonna be a shortage of something you want, whether you voted for markets or not.
The people have spoken. They want price controls. This is a vote of no confidence against market fundamentalism. For a deep dive into the politics of prices stay tuned for Anti-fascist Economics out 10/20.
I didn’t realize this reference really only made sense to people who were in Kansas City in the 90s until now.
@KyleLHandley @ModeledBehavior Honestly, that kind of nostalgia deserves respect. Bagel & Bagel forever in your heart.
👀👀👀
Waterborne shipments of crude oil and petroleum products from the U.S. Gulf Coast increased in April and May 2026. #TodayInEnergy bit.ly/4xKI6Vg
@OxfordFrom Well, it very much depends on what story you have for the factors driving up nominal rates.
@ModeledBehavior I still call Einstein Bros. “Bagel & Bagel”
@ModeledBehavior I feel they have been at this game for a while, especially GM, creating new model Z, which is may expand sales on net but only by partially cannibalizing the market share of old models X and Y.
It’s somewhat misleading because in the original working paper the categories are not mutually exclusive. Although the theory line is theory/non-empirical, all the others are just indicators that the method was used (one indicator of empirical is just using two-way FE). Over half the papers I have written are some combo of theory+structural+empirical, 4 are empirical only. 1 is pure theory. I would argue I am still doing a lot of applied theory and structural modeling, but this measure says I am an empirical guy
If you are or know a James Nathaniel Brown in or around Ann Arbor, MI, please let him know that he lost his wallet at the BP station on Washtenaw Avenue. I found your debit card there. Please RT. If it’s true that we are all connected through 7 links or so - this should work.
Real clickbait here from the NYT, I didn't think this story was gonna be about books
@spooleyhi @CSElmendorf @grok what is the share of degrees awarded at UC Berkeley, UCLA, and UCSD that require calculus?
Distribution of Calculus I readiness @ UC Berkeley, before and after test-blind admissions. 1/2
@mattkahn1966 The headways on most SoCal mass transit are way too long. I love taking the train from SD to LA, but the last mile or 5 from Union station almost always has me in an Uber unless I get lucky with a bus. Same problem going to UC Irvine to the federal data center
@contralculator You have a good point, but that's why I lead with comparing 529 to Trump acct for parents that have means to save for college now. I knew I was making that assumption and maybe not clear enough about it.
Trump Accounts seem pretty dumb compared with 529s for parents with the means to save for college now. 529, parents retain control, earnings tax-free for educ expenses, can convert $35K to a Roth IRA in child's name if you overfund (and some states give a tax deduction on the deposits) Trump Accounts? After-tax contributions, earnings tax deferred and locked up to age 59.5. The Trump account is controlled by your kid at age 18. There are tax penalties, but they can spend it all on orange mocha frappucinnos, if they so desire. For parents deciding where to put their own after-tax savings for a child, I don't understand why you'd fund a Trump Account before a 529. Obviously, take the free $1,000 if your kid qualifies. Did we really need another specialty, tax advantaged savings account gimmick? I’m sure someone will run a projection showing how wealthy a kid could be if you religiously fund one of these from birth. But there are plenty of flexible ways to save for them without giving up parental control of the asset. Tell me why I'm wrong.
@michaelxpettis What is the share of imported intermediate inputs used for production in your approximate equivalence result?
That may be, but no financial advisor or mutual fund company would ever be allowed to put this copy on their webpage: "Your child's account grows with them. Thanks to the power of time, their balance will continue to grow regardless of whether you continue contributing or not." That statement is false and Bessent and company won't be around when people want their money back. There appears to be no disclosure whatsoever that past performance is no guarantee of future results and oh, by the way, you could lose most of your money too.
I think it's important to distinguish between: (a) tax avoidance (what Navarro is describing here) and is usually a legal transformation of a set of parts into a recliner using VNM labor, and (b) tax evasion, which is transshipping through 3rd countries and relabeling the origin, typically illegal. And (c) none of this reallocation of shipments and operations would happen if the US was still trading on an MFN tariff basis with most partners
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