Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

@Fullcarry my guess is he will use trump's framing earlier in the month as as an out ... rates are a 'competition' to trump so other nations hiking while we sit is the same as cuts for him.

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

2 weeks ago

@Zach202_ the summer of squares is upon us. team USA winning the world cup will be the end

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@PeterHamby @Political_Data yeah he did much better than i anticipated. he was hitting 17~19% vote share of these late mail batches that were 9~12% republican by party registration and extremely young. otoh perhaps one should expect NPPs to be more R-leaning in such a hyperblue environment like LA City

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@Squee451 @DustinGouker I got a 20 and a 50, two different emails

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@Squee451 @DustinGouker The $50 didn't make it up to you??

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@ZhouJaron npp can't vote in closed primaries in nevada and there will be late mail

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@HillBofPI CSP Polling walked so these guys could run, much better PR than they ever got

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

Well we have enough information between the LA, SC, FL and now this to conclude this is a clickbait pollster and not a serious project. No reason that aggregators should include these or promote them.

The Public Sentiment Institute @TPSIOfficial

3 weeks ago

TPSI Maine Poll Senate Ballot: 🔴Susan Collins: 43.7% (+0.6) 🔵Graham Platner: 43.1% ⚪️Undecided: 13.2% “Over the last week, rumors have surfaced that Graham Platner sexually assaulted multiple women in the past. Platner even sent one text to a former girlfriend reading 'I

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@BaneyMike bcuz it is SHARP

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@conorsen Absolutely not. They spent millions on dollars on him on Kalshi at odds way out of proportion with reality; Caruso had some boosting in 22 but was mostly results-reactive rather than deep seated R support. He shed the party label after all.

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

Not quite sure he understands how much he is going to lose by when they're done

Spencer Pratt @spencerpratt

3 weeks ago

Remember everyone…we are still in the lead, and we’ve got allllllll the way til July 6th to keep counting. They’re not the only ones who know where to find votes 😉

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@LeeKuanYimby Well Raman beat Bass in the final e-day drop for starters

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@SpecialPuppy1 Its hard to be efficient when they won't stop buying. The OI was ~25M before e-day, at 25c avg that is ~19M being spent on NO to just hold him at that stupid price.

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

Don't think we would have had this wild Spencer Pratt volume and liquidity on @Kalshi if Elon had never bought Twitter.

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

@PokiJaciii @ubahnn generally though if you want Bass to lose in Nov you need to be seeing Raman getting closer and closer ... ~8pt margin is tough between rds. but 0-4 pts? something to work with

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Lance Uppercut @LanceupperPI

3 weeks ago

its a lotto on: (1) bigger than est ballot bottleneck. so ~250k estimated and hoping theres just mountains hiding in the dropboxes (2) prog/bass discontent among the non ~10% Rs in the remaining overwhelmingly picking raman over bass. (3) some evidence of (2) bass discontent when raman got 2nd in the e-day semifinal update over bass (4) some evidence of (2) when eating bass vote share more than pratt in post-semi updates 1 and 2 (5) pratt at 20% feels like we're not hitting these low 10% r buckets yet unless he's just overperforming still with NPP. which hasnt meshed too well nationally, NPP in primaries have usually been picking D ballots and late NPP is all young, ethnic, prog, etc. not exaclty pratt friendly (6) so when pratt share dropping then raman swinging 7 over bass between 2 and 3 gives us the prog signal ... just about where is the ceiling. is this it? is it 45% ? we'll see. lots of assumptions abt unclear ways vote is tallied so thats why its just a lotto that shouldn't be copied