Macro_Lin | 市场观察员 @LinQingV
Ex-quant & PM|AI chip design|Semis × Capital Markets|Not Financial Advice Joined February 2019-
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芯原股份起飞。
整个modeling都在供给侧,供给侧也确实如原作者所讲。但是,个人觉得大变数在需求侧,一旦AI Capex 暂停,不再增长,再结构性的需求也会失速。历史上,2008/2018/2022 三次崩盘也都是需求端。
AI半导体终局推演2026(II) 当半导体结构性演进到AI推理主线,内存和存储成为了最大瓶颈,市场对内存和存储最大的怀疑就是: HBM/DRAM/SSD会不会摆脱传统周期性? 依赖HBM指数增长的GPU架构路线进化路线,会不会停止?什么时候停止? 长鑫扩产的影响有多大?会不会把这个市场重新带入周期泥潭?
📢 给国内没法完成X订阅支付的朋友开了一个知识星球,订阅内容和长推都会同步进去,历史内容也会一并整理同步。 🔗如下👇 t.zsxq.com/GwzhR 扫图中二维码也可以直接加入。
$MU 美光FQ3出了一组超预期幅度罕见的财报数字。收入$415亿(预期$356亿),毛利率84.9%创历史新高,EPS $25.11(预期$20.6)。Q4指引更强,收入$500亿±10亿(预期$429亿),毛利率约86%,EPS约$31。连续五个季度收入创纪录。 但真正值得花时间理解的是SCA(Strategic Customer Agreements)。 美光已签16份SCA,覆盖约20% DRAM和1/3 NAND产量,5年期(汽车3年),take-or-pay结构。客户缴纳$220亿押金及承诺($180亿现金),14份协议在floor price下的RPO合计约$1000亿。 定价机制的设定是关键。Ceiling锚定CQ2市价(对应约85%毛利率),floor price对应的毛利率,用Mehrotra的原话,“well above”美光历史任何周期peak。美光过去peak GM在低60%区间。如果floor在65-70%以上,memory盈利的底部被抬高到了以前的天花板之上。 Memory是半导体里周期性最强的品类。Boom到bust,毛利率可以从60%+跌到负。美光用SCA把盈利底部锁在历史峰值上方,本质上是把自己从一家周期股重新定位为盈利可预期的基础设施供应商。客户愿意签5年锁量并交$180亿现金,反映的是AI基建竞争中memory supply access的优先级已经超过价格。 HBM4进展也值得注意。12-High爬坡速度是HBM3E的两倍,已出货超$10亿。美光将HBM份额对齐DRAM整体份额而非激进扩张,理由是HBM的wafer trade ratio太高,过多HBM会挤压non-HBM品类的供给和ASP。在DDR5、LPDDR5X、data center SSD全线涨价的环境下,这个取舍是合理的。 供需面,管理层判断DRAM和NAND紧张将持续到CY2027以后。Greenfield fab建设周期、节点bit gain递减、HBM trade ratio侵蚀产能、NAND向DRAM转产,这些供给约束是结构性的。 Data center SSD季度收入突破$50亿,环比翻倍。Agentic AI对存储架构的影响正在变得具体,context store和agent control plane带来的NAND增量需求,可能是当前估值中反映不充分的部分。
@curtuner 一直有人评论说X订阅不了,所以就开了个星球同步下。
@Gxba4aUBU7d8TvO 应该还有,比如代理高通的alphawave的高速IO IP,芯原这边的IP大都是compute IP,两者互补
@RyanHHhH886 IP还是值钱,但是把一堆买来的IP撺成一颗ASIC推理芯片的公司就价值就不大了。高速IO,NoC,compute, 高性能cpu 这些IP依然很值钱。
Jalapeño 9个月tape-out,inference ASIC的设计门槛比大多数人以为的要低。架构定义是整个流程里最快的环节,真正吃时间的Place & Route收敛、timing signoff、foundry适配全部沉淀在Broadcom这类turnkey平台手里。每家hyperscaler都有动力做定制inference芯片,但不会自建后端团队,订单会集中流向有成熟flow的ASIC服务商。Broadcom、Marvell、联发科、芯原的管线会变厚。通用inference芯片的fabless公司要想清楚,客户自己9个月能出一颗定制ASIC的时候,你的差异化窗口以及护城河还剩多少?
现在的芯片设计公司越来越像当年手机行业的design house。 当年 MTK turnkey 成熟之后,手机 design house 的淘汰周期大概是三到五年。inference 芯片这一轮,节奏可能更快。。。
这是一个多月前发的,长鑫存储的材料与耗材供应商。
@curtuner 叠加另外一个因素,就是GLM 5.2这种 MoE model搞几个国产算力卡,把互联做好,就能小企业/小团队私有部署了,对于国产算力卡确实利好。不过私有部署成本大头在内存,MoE虽然降低算力和带宽要求,但是内存需求依然在那。
中国市场的AI硬件投资:上游半导体设备,PCB及上游材料,光芯片&光模块。还有别的吗?
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