- earlier iteration took goalies into consideration more than they should so that's been adjusted; this was the biggest change
- adjusted the blend of this season's stats and last season's stats
- small adjustment to b2bs & 3-in-4s
linematching.ca
Betting:
this season's not off to the *best* start, but I made a couple tweaks and backtested results to 22-23 on them with DK opening & closing lines, and the exact stats I'd use on every game day, and I'm confident in the model going forward
couple changes:
- Props are back
- small tweak to how the bet model operates
- added model results back to 22-23 onto the betting page
- bets get posted once opening lines are up and display immediately (on the Tomorrow tab) instead of having to wait
absolutely love to see that this is working automatically (this is NYI/NYR)
also fixed an optimizer bug someone pointed out to me, so global exposure is now fixed
changes from today:
- fixed some player name issues
- ownership proj tweaks again that should improve the mid-priced players' accuracy, and adjusted projections at extremes
- two small projection tweaks to points and blocks
we are Yet Again advertising for the site after - in 4 slates!! - subs have had a 1st place (50k), FHWC entry (20k), and 2nd place (i don't actually know how much this was for)
linematching.ca
2) goalie changes during warmups now specify that the change is a goalie with big GOALIE CHANGE ALERT text, and will send an @ notification to the discord channel given the importance
3) iphone patreon loop issue - still working on it! tricky fucker
linematching.ca
today's changes:
1) ownership projection tweaks to goalies and stacks. goalies were over-projecting on vegas odds/under-projecting on expected SA. third pieces of top lines and PP1 d-men were underprojecting so that's adjusted as well.
also did slight ownership proj adjustment
and the optimizer:
- changed Exposure to a slider
- added a Global Exposure setting
- you can now filter to just see your the people in your player pool after optimizing
- can upload your own proj (i can't remember if i mentioned this)
we are yet again advertising, while the season is young:
$60/month via patreon
$300/season via the website & paypal
linematching.ca/demo is live with today's slate - (will stay this slate for the rest of the season)
added a live twitter embed for each game
NHL list always displays, every team on the slate will populate 30m before game starts & disappear once game starts.
can load them early if you want
auto-refreshes every 3min but you can also press the little reload button to force it
432 Followers 4K FollowingStill actually work in public but much more enjoy pretending to be a pro gambler and stable owner @zedchampions.com - Flip to Win aka Dare to Mare.
167K Followers 1K FollowingFormer oddsmaker turned Co-Founder and host (AGAIN) of @BetTheBoardPod. Analyst for @CBSSportsHQ / @Sportsline + part time hack on @JayonSC with @TSN_Sports
1K Followers 3K FollowingWhen the random dots connect.🍄 Positivity Inclusivity Love 💜 Music 🎵 Poker 🃏 Travel ✈ Fan family of The Dead Deads #deadcorps #sharkdead 👽🦈🖤💚❤
584 Followers 1K FollowingDFS content provider for @RotoGrinders #NHL #DFS @Bemidjistate alumni. Placed 5th and 22nd in the @DraftKings Fantasy Hockey World Championship 2026.
543 Followers 831 FollowingBS in Mathematics | Anything Sports | @IHSA_IL Basketball and Soccer Official | “Deflation is the natural state of the market” | Investing | Political sometimes
559 Followers 1K FollowingRetired Naval Officer. American Patriot. Husband of 38 years, Grandfather, Father, avid Motorcyclist, love life and FANTASY FOOTBALL. That is all.
139 Followers 312 FollowingPosting the result of every NHL game looking for final scores that have never happened before. Based on the original Football Scorigami idea by @jon_bois
633 Followers 890 FollowingSports bettor? More like sports worsor amirite? I like to build math models for sports betting. Fan of the Manul, or Pallas cat, a small East Asian wildcat