Luke Tryl @LukeTryl
Lover of finding out what people think, UK Director @Moreincommon_ 🏳️🌈🇺🇦 moreincommon.org.uk London, England Joined December 2016-
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This goes to my theory about people preferring politicians who look like they enjoy the job. There’s no one way of showing that (Thatcher enjoying it clearly different to Burnham) but Burnham does and it’s hard to imagine Starmer responding like this.
@JayRussell22 Here's when we did that in May! x.com/LukeTryl/statu…
April forced choice preferred PM head to heads 🌹 Starmer loses to Badenoch and Davey and ties Polanski and Farage 🌳Badenoch leads all 4 match ups 🔶 Davey beats Starmer, Polanski and Farage but trails Badenoch ➡️ Farage trails Badenoch and Davey, narrowly Polanski and ties
How does voting intention change, when party leaders are named with Burnham as hypothetical Labour leader. Labour go from 7pts behind Reform, to 1pts ahead gaining 6pts Reform, Greens, Lib Dems also lose votes The Tories gain one point. Combined right/left share barely changes.
@cezthesocialist Old! And i think got the reform number wrong..
The picture is even more stark on head to heads between potential PM candidates. Burnham bests Starmer 67% to 33%. While Starmer trails Badenoch 60-40 he leads her 54-56. Starmer beats Farage 53-47 but Burnham beats him by a significant 62-38.
How does Burnham change the prefered PM question. He moves into a statistical tie with Farage and Badenoch - 1 point ahead of those two. While Starmer trailed by 3.
Net scores only part of picture. What about gross? 52% have either a neutral or no opinion on Burnham, the same as Ed Davey, showing his opportunity to define himself for good or ill in coming weeks. Badenoch just overtakes Farage not just on net but also raw approval this week
Leader approvals we have someone in the positive! Burnham jumps up to +9, Badenoch is at -1, Davey is at -7, Farage is at -16, Polanski at -21 and Starmer is at -45.
Reform's lead narrows slightly this week - they now lead the Tories by 6. ➡️ REF UK 28% (-1) 🌳CON 22% (+1) 🌹 LAB 21% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 10% (+1) ❓ OTH 3% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) N = 2,993 | Fieldwork 19-22 June | Changes w/ 15 June
@manic278394370 @Dannythefink But that’s the point the assumption it automatically goes downhill is wrong
Think this is spot on from @Dannythefink too much received wisdom has as the default Burnham’s approval is likely to rollercoaster down like Starmer’s, and if he stuffs up it will, but as Danny says if he can make a reality of his vision/message it could have real appeal.
Think Burnham’s foreign secretary pick is going matter more than usual. Part of getting Labour rehearing means convincing public he’s more focused on domestic than international in contrast to Starmer. But big international issues that dominated Starmer’s time don’t go away.
Full piece - We’ve survived this No 10 carousel before thetimes.com/article/f473d3…
You can argue the “never here Keir stuff” was unfair but it really cut through (in part because international summits make for more memorable clips). But Starmer admin never managed to get public on link between international and domestic eg cost of living or immigration.
Means imo you ideally want gravitas and someone you trust to actually do the stuff on world stage as much as possible (obvs big moments are for PM) was clear Cameron did that for Sunak. So will place onus on having a trusted figure to do that.
Link to all the data and more here. moreincommon.org.uk/research/brexi…
Taken together, where does it leave us, people don't think Brexit has worked, Bregret is real, rejoin would have advantages in the first ref it didn't not least brexit is the status quo & people dont like the status quo, BUT once the trade offs/terms became clear lots could shift
🧵For the 10th anniversary of Brexit we've taken an in-depth look at attitudes to the referendum, relations with the EU, rejoining, the impact of Brexit, but also the red lines on any closer relationship. Firstly at a top level Brits say they would be 48%-28% for rejoin
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