MJR @MJRCap

London, England Joined January 2023

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MJR @MJRCap

2 years ago

@Rebrand_As_Y @modestproposal1

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@Retail_Guru Contrasts with recent commentary on the lower end / subprime consumer. Equifax $EFX: subprime credit card delinquencies approaching 2009-2010 levels and above 2009-2010 for auto. Aus-listed Credit Corp $CCP also writing down a US ledger book this week (stock down 31% on the day)

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@fundhunter_co @Jave_t23 @long_equity Structurally hard to see US getting to the margin profile of the UK business given more plants, operating through a distributor, etc but it probably doesn’t have to for the stock to work - just needs to improve and provide the growth engine large TAM.

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@fundhunter_co @Jave_t23 @long_equity FY23 gross margin guidance 31-33% vs 50%+ until FY19 and mgnt guiding to FY24 EBITDA margin of 15% vs mid-30s until FY19. If you assume return to 22.5% EBITDA margin by FY26, 10% rev CAGR and 25x PE you get to a 15% IRR at today’s prices. Few assumptions there and obvious risks..

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@fundhunter_co @Jave_t23 @long_equity Questions being: executability of US opportunity. Clearly large potential (premium spirits are 11.5x the size of the UK and retail mixer market >4x UK. More competitive, different mkt dynamics but where growth will have to come from as UK largely mature now

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@SofiaHCBBG Escalation of mortgage (and other) costs for landlords has made economics of renting properties out less attractive and in some cases forced landlords to sell. Once properties are sold the new owners sometimes occupy the property vs renting out - reducing rental supply.

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@borrowed_ideas Brainstorming but interested in views if more ad dollars go directly to influencer promotional posts vs independent corporate ad slots whether paying influencers to remain on the platform (akin to Twitter) would become worthwhile? And at what stage we are in this progression?

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@borrowed_ideas Agree. FB shopping was originally shut down based on a similar rationale - introduction of a shopping ‘tab’ was taking eyes away from the newsfeed, and even FB’s own advertising on the feed to attract users to the shopping tab was sacrificing too many third party ad dollars

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@Mayhem4Markets Interesting that after each crisis (01, 08, 20) their relative earnings contribution has risen alongside their relative market cap - makes sense given higher resilience. But interesting their weight is once again high - any signal here about investor sentiment currently?

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@John_Hempton Interesting point re a potential combination with spirit brands (or further partnerships) may allow a greater push into the RTD market which is growing in popularity.

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@John_Hempton market / buyer universe and given breadth of portfolio would ideally seek someone with a premium spirits portfolio that compliments FEVR’s expanding product range (ie with tequila, dark spirit, gin, vodka, etc offerings)

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@BillBrewsterTBB 6/ How he balances extensive disclosure from banks relative to other industries with the inherent lack of visibility over individual loans, underwriting standards and other more micro factors. What is his key differentiated DD approach to generate unique insight?

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MJR @MJRCap

3 years ago

@BillBrewsterTBB 5/ Outlook for alternative asset management. Is there a risk it’s continual growth adds to or aids systemic risk? What consequences does this have for market structure and asset prices?