Former U.S. Ambassador to Oman
30+ years U.S. Foreign Service
Former Founding Director, AJC Abu Dhabi
Commentator | Middle East & Gulf affairsambassadorsievers.comJoined September 2024
Fox’s @BretBaier: “This is an Iran President who doesn’t seem to have control of all the actors inside his country.”
@brithume: “He certainly doesn’t and he is whom the administration is trying to deal with. You don’t even know if he would keep a deal if he got one. These people are absolutely notorious for going back on deals, violating ceasefires and memos of understanding. There’s also a question over whether they have any control of the Iranian national guard corps which is independent of the broader government.”
“So here we are. It’s hard to resist the conclusion that the President of the United States is being jerked around by an Iranian regime in much the same way that previous administrations have been.”
During an ongoing trip to the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, engaged senior civilian and military leaders in Israel and Lebanon. While in Lebanon, Cooper and his staff met with President Joseph Aoun and Lebanese Armed Forces Commanding General Rodolphe Haykal. The leaders discussed the path forward in implementing a historic framework agreement signed in Washington, D.C., on Friday.
In Israel, Cooper also visited deployed U.S. troops and recognized exceptional performers for outstanding mission contributions. More than 50,000 American service members are currently operating across the region – remaining vigilant and ready.
Having been around block in Arab-Israeli negotiations, this is one impressive document, especially bold from Lebanese Govt, given Iran/Hizbollah threats. Israel had pretty good lawyers. The word withdrawal doesn’t appear; redeployment does. Clearly implementation is challenge.
📄🇺🇸🇱🇧🇮🇱READ HERE THE FULL TEXT: The Israel-Lebanon framework agreement brokered by the Trump administration:
TRILATERAL FRAMEWORK BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, THE STATE OF ISRAEL, AND THE REPUBLIC OF LEBANON
The Government of Israel and the Government of Lebanon,
Historic victory. The Islamic regime has just suffered a major defeat in Lebanon. Pushing Iran out of Lebanon and recognizing Israel through a framework agreement is a significant achievement for Rubio and a major step toward joining the Abraham Accords. It means Lebanon and Israel could begin working together against a common threat. That said, I remain skeptical about the Lebanese government's ability to preserve the peace or enforce a lasting ceasefire.
Explaining Gulf dynamics on @i24NEWS_EN: The "reconciliation with Iran summit" that Saudi Arabia is organizing does not make sense, especially to the three GCC countries -- the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain. After being pummeled with missiles and drones, it's not easy to sit across the room from Iranian officials and pretend that nothing happened and start talking about reconstructing a new security architecture for the region.
Saudi Arabia used to be with the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and has now reversed policy and switched to the side of Oman and Qatar, who were always the outliers in GCC, Oman known for its proximity to Islamic Iran and Qatar for its alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey.
Rubio, one of the most respected figures in the Trump administration and someone widely regarded across the Middle East, chose to visit the UAE first. That was no coincidence. The UAE is the only Arab Muslim country that fought back directly against the Islamic regime in Iran, striking every drone and missile launcher, as well as military bases that targeted civilians and civilization across the region. We didn't negotiate with the threat. We dismantled it.
Now pay close attention to the countries he isn't visiting. Sometimes, diplomacy speaks loudest through the places left off the itinerary.
Met with UAE’s President @MohamedBinZayed in Abu Dhabi, where we discussed President Trump’s MOU with Iran, efforts to secure full and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and regional stability. I thanked the UAE leadership for their unparalleled support, praised their courage and resilience in the face of Iran’s attacks, and reaffirmed our commitment to Emirati security and to our strong bilateral partnership.
ATROCIOUS & UNCONSCIONABLE
Under an atrocious part of this unfolding deal, Israel’s PM and Lebanon’s President will be forced to make a decision by our government that is truly outrageous if not unconscionable: either defend your country and protect your citizens from Iran backed Hezbollah terrorists or fall in line behind an agreement that ensures Hezbollah’s survival and protection. And if they don’t fall in line they will face incredible pressure and public ridicule. We already saw some of this.
Of COURSE Israel and Lebanon will choose the safety and lives of their citizens over some deal that is unenforceable as against Iran and Hezbollah, certainly in the near future. Their interests don’t align with Iran’s nor apparently our interests. Why the hell would we do this?
I remind you Hezbollah has maimed and murdered thousands of Americans. WE have done nothing in 45 years to confront it. Only Israel has. Isolationism and appeasement suck.
Why are so few speaking out against this absurdity? Even Obama didn’t do this. Both Israel and Lebanon were intentionally sidelined in these American-led discussions. Terror-supporting Qatar and Pakistan enlisted as mediators! Mediators for Iran!
Again, no BS about disinformation or fake news. This is as real as it gets. Defend it.
How on earth are the talks and commissions for ending a war in which Israel is a party include half a dozen countries, but not Israel?
The world is proving to be antisemitic to its teeth.
A de-conflicting commission between Lebanon and Israel includes America, Iran, Lebanon, Pakistan and Qatar (last two as mediator), but not Israel, which is the victim of a war that Iranian Hezbollah launched from Lebanon and continues to pose threat on Israel by not surrendering its arms to the state of Lebanon.
What GCC?
First, only two of six GCC nations run annual surpluses, others are in red ink. $300 billion is ginormous.
Second, the Gulf today has a huge problem with the bully Iran and will not help out with a cent of investment.
This money is as imaginary as the Saudi “one trillion” investment in the U.S. economy.
The $300b is coming from the GCC. They'll get the waivers they need as long as that helps ensure they don't have drones through the windows of luxury hotels.
I want to thank the IDF, Mossad and Israel for killing the Hezbollah leaders who have killed so many Americans. Tough, dirty work. America and the world are safer because of your sacrifices.
I don’t see much value in comparing the MOU and the JCPOA. They are fundamentally different agreements that emerged from starkly different contexts. Best to leave that debate to hardline critics of both the 2015 deal and the current understanding, who seem perfectly capable of
The MOU and What Comes Next
The MOU and the subsequent nuclear negotiations can only produce a satisfactory result if the Iranian regime had truly decided to change, as JD Vance claims. I recall hearing almost the exact same thing in 2015 when the Obama administration and its echo chamber were selling the JCPOA.
I recall then Treasury Secretary Jack Lew insisting that Iran only wanted to be part of the international economic system and would invest its windfall in released funds in improving the lives of Iran’s citizens. We know the opposite happened, the regime took the pallets of cash and put it all into its nuclear program, ballistic missiles and especially expanding the regional proxy network. Maybe this time will be different, but I’m skeptical.
Greetings, President Trump,
You may have secured a temporary deal, but you've shaken the trust of almost everyone around you except perhaps JD Vance and Iran's Supreme Leader. Attacking friends who stood with you in wartime while defending an enemy that attacked both of you is how nations stop trusting you, even if they keep smiling for the cameras. The way many of us, including me, see it, Israel is America's biggest ally in the Middle East. Telling Israel not to hit Hezbollah for the sake of a deal with Iran is like telling America not to hit al-Qaeda because you're negotiating with Hamas.
And a deal that lasts only 60 days? That's not diplomacy, that's a ceasefire with an expiry date shorter than a carton of milk.
"I just want to say His Highness is a warrior, he is a very courageous man ," says President Trump in his meeting with UAE President HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Thank you @POTUS for praising my President
International media is amplifying the Iranian regime perspective and framing things as if Israel is trying to jeopardize a US-Iran deal.
The reality is that Iran is trying to derail a Lebanese-Israeli peace effort.
A deal with Iran must recognize that this regime has no desire to be a responsible member of the community of nations. They do not regret the last 47 years nor think it was a mistake to kill Americans. They are all radical Islamists.
Any funds available to the regime - whether paid to them directly, provided by sanctions relief or via releasing escrowed funds - will go straight toward rebuilding the IRGC military capabilities and its terrorist proxies. When your enemy is at its weakest - win.
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