markmo @MarkMoTHU
☯️万物皆虚 万事皆允 🎬抖音/TikTok/DeepMusic 🤖从ML开始做了10年AI 📖探索科技与人文的真谛 🔗公众号：莫思Moss github.com/MarkMoTHU Universe Center Joined August 2017-
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商业化不成熟不等于商业化不可能，AI时代商业的底层逻辑并没有改变，此前的“寒冬”和“收缩”是在清洗那些只讲DAU、不讲利润的故事贩子，历史又将进入一个相似的轮回。
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所以字节收缩应用层，只不过是一种理性的战略聚焦罢了，这是商业世界的常态。用互联网的思维去做 AI 产品创业也并非死路，只是大厂有大厂的玩法，小厂有小厂的路径。
其实按相同的逻辑，抖音也应该活不过2017年。当时字节的推荐系统需要为每一次用户刷新实时计算海量特征，服务器账单同样惊人。期间是工程团队花了数年时间通过模型量化、蒸馏、稀疏化、软硬协同设计等方式把推理成本从“一次刷新几毛钱”压到了“一次刷新几分钱”。
凯文·凯利预测未来的不确定性可能会持续十年甚至更久，这或许听上去很可怕，但也意味着那些能在这段长跑中坚持下来的人，将获得巨大的回报。
时间久了，你会越来越清楚自己擅长什么、不擅长什么。花时间与那些独立思考、有专业深度、且彼此认可的人保持交流，这个圈子是你迷路时的导航。 学会接受“长期模糊”的状态，不要逼自己马上变得确定，允许在一段时间内同时抱有多个互相矛盾的假设，不着急选边站队，这种认知上的弹性恰恰是定力的表现。
尽管听上去很有道理，但当你把“灵活”和“随时放弃”当成核心策略时，你实际上是在放弃自己最宝贵的资产，也就是深度积累。你不敢在一个领域深扎下去，因为你怕被AI取代。你不敢对某个判断下重注，因为你怕世界变了。你不断切换方向，每个方向都浅尝辄止，结果你成了一个什么都会一点、什么都不精通的人。
面对这种局面，很多人给出的建议是别把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，快速试错随时准备掉头。凯文·凯利提出的“期权性”也是这个思路，意思是像金融期权一样保留选择的权利，不把赌注压在单一道路上。
所以你越努力研究，越发现自己的知识在贬值。你越试图看清未来，未来变得越模糊。这并非信息不对称的问题，而是认知的坐标系本身在漂移。
你有没有觉得，现在想搞清楚明天会是怎样越来越难了？ 硅谷科技思想家凯文·凯利@kevin2kelly，最近发了一篇文章叫《我们拿不准的不确定性（Our Uncertain Uncertainties）》。他认为AI每往前进一步，不但没帮我们把事情看清楚，反而生出更多我们想不到的问题。
AI不一样，它每升级一次，就会创造出之前根本不存在的可能性，同时也让你以前觉得重要的技能、行业、判断变得无关紧要。你没法用过去的数据预测未来的走向，因为未来的数据还没生成。你也没法用现在的框架评估AI的能力，因为下一版模型可能就突破了你的框架。
你以为再等几年，通用人工智能到底行不行、工作会不会被抢、算力泡沫破不破的答案自然就出来了。但他觉得到时候我们可能还是不知道，甚至比现在更迷茫。 过去蒸汽机、电力、互联网改变世界的方式虽然迅猛，但方向是清晰可见的。
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