Max @MaximumLib

Joined September 2026

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Max @MaximumLib

a day ago

... when a white Democrat might even have won some of those states. -The GB was 3.3% redder than the presidential popular vote Given the financial crisis, Iraq, Katrina, Bush's approval being in the high 20s/low 30s, etc., there are more D+>10 realities than the one we got

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Max @MaximumLib

a day ago

-The next two options for the nomination, Romney and Huckabee, were awful candidates -The Palin nomination, for as much as it's meme'd on, probably saved the Republicans asses in the western plains -Appalachian voters actually swung right because Obama's black

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Max @MaximumLib

a day ago

In a lot of ways 2008 was actually a perfect storm of events for the GOP to not get historically blown out. -McCain was the literal perfect nominee and one of the only Reps not tied to the historically unpopular Bush administration

Max @MaximumLib

2 days ago

2008 election if it was based on how each state voted for the house (D+10.6 margin)

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Max @MaximumLib

2 days ago

2008 election if it was based on how each state voted for the house (D+10.6 margin)

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Max @MaximumLib

3 days ago

It should be noted though that Republicans outvoted Democrats 338,000 to 224,000 in the primaries in Kansas.

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Max @MaximumLib

3 days ago

"Bollier led some polls in 2020" Yea, from "Data For Progress", and "GBAO Strategies

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024

3 days ago

Emerson poll | 9/15-9/16 LV US Senate Kansas 2026 🟦Adam Hamilton 45% 🟥Roger Marshall 43% (incumbent) 🟨David C. Graham 4% Link to poll: emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/

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Max @MaximumLib

3 days ago

Predictions as of rn (I think the map will get a little redder by election day)

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Max @MaximumLib

3 days ago

They're calling it the worst poll ever taken

Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024

4 days ago

Advanced Targeting Research poll | 9/13-9/16 RV President Trump approval (Idaho) ❌Disapprove 53.4% ✅Approve 40.8% (2024 result: Trump +30.4)

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Max @MaximumLib

4 days ago

@steelersbu22792 Alaska?

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Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende

4 days ago

One useful way to think about the House: If Ds sweep all the EVEN and D-leaning PVI districts, it is 211 seats. Up to R+1 is 215. R+2 is 218. R+3 is 226. R+4 is 235. Sweeping the R+5 or lower is 247. Winning the House isn't that hard, but putting up '10/'18 style gains are.

Bill Scher @billscher

4 days ago

“Democrats’ small lead on the generic ballot among voters in these red districts suggests that Democrats’ gains this fall will mostly be limited to districts Trump carried by 10 points or fewer.”

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Max @MaximumLib

5 days ago

@Socdem_Michael SC safe R?

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Max @MaximumLib

6 days ago

Really annoying how I get on thos account to look at political/election tweets and half my timeline every day is just "jew bad jew bad jew bad"

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

I don't think people have a great grasp of how to interpret polling. If a candidate is consistently up 1-2 points (Peltola, Talarico) that race is a tossup

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

Maybe that is the modern political reality of partisanship in this country though. It feels like in this environment Dems should be hitting double digit margins. These midterms should be like 1974

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

to war crimes by means of blowing up boats of Venezuelan citizens, the admin betraying a major campaign promise by concealing the Epstein files, the president taking a $400 million plane from Qatar, etc A 6% victory being near the ceiling of what Dems can achieve is depressing.

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

Just at face level thats disappointing with the sitting president having a 35% approval rating and gas prices being super high. When you consider the current administration deploying the national guard to U.S. cities, ICE killing innocent citizens, citizens getting deported to

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

A D+8% result would still feel underwhelming ngl. 1. It would be a smaller victory than 2006 or 2018, which is nuts. 2. Considering Dem coalition turnout advantage each midterm should essentially start at a D+1.5-2.0 baseline. Meaning Dems would've only won swing voters by 6%

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

Electoral map by shift in partisan lean since 2012

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

If the suburban shift doesn't slow down Kansas could get really interesting in the 2030s. It really depends on Democrats flipping Wichita since it's the reddest urban area in the country right now though.

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Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

Interestingly, Kansas has actually shifted even more since 2012 (D+11 since then, Alaska has only been D+6). Kansas is an interesting play in the long term, but feels less within reach for 26 if the main swings are coming from minority communities.

Max @MaximumLib

a week ago

Alaska has been one of the most dem trending states in the country. (partisan lean has shifted D+17 since 08) if they elect a Dem senator and governor we have to seriously consider the state in 2028.