Mut @Mut_eth

1/ Grayscale Research believes the $AAVE token fair value could rise to ~$175 in one year and is currently undervalued at $75 Top 30 crypto assets age is ~8 years - compare that to the 100+ year average for the constituents currently in the Dow We're still early 🧵⬇️

🚨ASÍ ES COMO LA BURBUJA DE LA IA VA A ROMPER EL S&P 500 Lee esto con calma antes de comprar una sola acción. Tres gigantes de la IA y el espacio van a salir a bolsa casi a la vez, con una valoración combinada de 4 billones de dólares: SpaceX. OpenAI. Anthropic. Y la mayoría todavía no entiende lo que eso significa. 1. El mayor evento de liquidez de la historia SpaceX acaba de protagonizar la mayor OPV jamás vista. 75.000 millones captados. Valoración de 2,2 billones. OpenAI ya ha presentado un S-1 confidencial y apunta a una valoración de 1 billón. Anthropic también se encamina a cotizar en bolsa con esa misma cifra. Es decir: casi 4 billones en valoración de IA y espacio intentando entrar al mercado público al mismo tiempo. Y ese dinero tiene que salir de algún sitio. 2. El S&P 500 está mucho más concentrado de lo que la gente cree Las Mag 7 y las acciones ligadas a la IA pesan ya alrededor de un tercio de todo el índice: Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. Amazon. Meta. Apple. Tesla. Y ahora las mayores empresas privadas del mundo vienen a por esa misma bolsa de capital. Los fondos no se sacan de la manga cientos de miles de millones de la noche a la mañana. Venden lo que ya tienen. Recogen beneficios. Liberan liquidez. Y las primeras acciones en sufrir presión suelen ser justo las que mejor lo han hecho: Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. Amazon. Los mismos nombres que mantienen en pie al S&P 500. 3. En el techo de toda gran burbuja, el capital se concentra en un puñado de empresas “infalibles” Los Locos Años Veinte las tuvieron. La burbuja de Japón en los 80 las tuvo. La burbuja puntocom las tuvo. Y cada vez, los inversores repetían lo mismo: “Estas empresas son diferentes.” “Son demasiado importantes para caer.” Y cada vez, el mercado terminó rompiéndose. Hoy la concentración del capital en tecnología vuelve a estar en extremos históricos. Y un mercado sobrecargado no necesita malas noticias para caer. Solo necesita que se vaya la liquidez. 4. Tras una OPV, los inversores tempranos por fin tienen por dónde salir Fondos de capital riesgo. Empleados. Inversores privados. Insiders. Después de años comprando en privado, por fin pueden asegurar beneficios. Las empresas salen a bolsa cuando el mercado público está dispuesto a pagar el precio más alto. En plena era puntocom, hasta las mejores compañías quedaron destrozadas tras las ventas de los insiders en la salida: Amazon: -95% Microsoft: -65% Intel: -80% Oracle: -80% Yahoo: -97% Y el mismo escenario está de vuelta. Así es como la burbuja se alimenta a sí misma: Primero, los ganadores sostienen el índice. Luego, los gigantes salen a bolsa. Los fondos venden a los viejos ganadores para perseguir a los nuevos. Los insiders se llevan la liquidez. Y el pequeño inversor se queda con el sueño en las manos. Recordatorio: llevo 15 años acertando todos los techos y suelos del mercado, incluido el suelo del Bitcoin en 16.000 dólares y el techo en 126.000. La próxima señal será todavía más importante. Cuando salga del mercado por completo, lo avisaré aquí, en público, como siempre. Activa las notificaciones. Y si todavía no me sigues, más adelante entenderás por qué fue un error.

1/ Moving money just got a whole lot easier. You can now send fiat in 6 different currencies across 120+ countries. Pay for your rent, your bills, send money back to your home country and more — all with ether.fi.

the EF had ~12M ETH at genesis which was split roughly 50/50 between early contributors and the EF itself ~6M ETH to early contributors (around 85 people) including vitalik, Gavin, Charles, Joe Lubin, Mihai Alisie, Anthony Di Iorio, etc. ~6M ETH to the Ethereum Foundation: They kept ~3M for operations / treasury (actual slice) Set aside another ~3M for a “developer purchase program” for ~50 foundation employees. this was a decade ago and i haven’t seen any other project be as transparent about distribution as ethereum (holding base got a lot more distributed so it really doesn’t matt what the ef does) and half of the supply went to GPU miners btw*

Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going. First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My input has been largely on technical questions. The board is in the process of expanding, and my own power within the org will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want. The 2025 era brought many important improvements to EF and its ability to execute. Many issues were resolved, and EF continues to benefit from its improved efficiency and greater focus on concrete goals to this day. And so with those problems resolved, early this year, the largest remaining hole that I perceived was something different nagging at me: I would regularly spot people saying things like "vitalik says these beautiful things about ethereum needing to be decentralized, and have privacy, and be a sanctuary technology, but why do the EF's actions not reflect that?" Now, you may have been hearing something different. You may not have been sensing a feeling of crisis at all, and maybe were hearing people saying that finally we were taking execution and BD seriously and the main task for us is to keep going that way and be even better and faster. Then probably there is genuine difference between you and me, in what kinds of criticism I take most seriously, and what kinds of critics through their criticism are most able to make me feel pain. As an analogy, let's briefly switch over to a different domain. One belief you can have about Google is that it is a success story, and has brought a lot of good to humanity in organizing the world's information. Another belief you can have about Google is that they had a beautiful idealistic beginning, but at some point the corruption of mainstream corporate attitudes seeped in, and they slowly bit by bit completely abandoned the "don't be evil" slogan. My belief on Google specifically is probably somewhere between the two. BUT, if you had taken me back in time to ~2008, and offered me a button to press to make Google one or two standard deviations more "dogmatic", eg. give Richard Stallman permanent veto power over some key policies, I would immediately press it. Why? Because a choice for one company is not a choice for the world, or even one country. Google existed and exists in the context of a technology industry generally drifting away from early idealistic don't-be-evil roots and toward greed for financial gain, totalizing visions of accelerated superintelligence, infiltration by sociopaths, and craven capitulation to (or worse, active participation in) government pressure for ideological control, surveillance and war. And so *one company* doing something different, positioning itself to be what George Bernard Shaw calls the Unreasonable Man, resisting the trend of the times, would have been better for freedom, balance of power and stability of society as a whole, than *all* large companies bending to dominant trends. This is a part of my version of pluralism. This line of thinking is not just mine, but I also is not too far off from what Aya and others had in mind with the Mandate. Now how does this all get to the role of the EF? EF is not a "center of Ethereum", rather EF is "one node, with a defined purpose, alongside other nodes". We've always said that the EF should be the latter, but many in the Ethereum ecosystem (and even within the EF) wanted us to be the former. Now, we are taking action to ensure that we will be the latter. This is particularly important because EF is a limited organization, with limited resources and limited organizational capacity. The EF has only ~0.16% of all ETH (less than many other individual ETH holders), whereas among other blockchains it's common for "the central foundation" to have 10-50%. Fiscally, the EF was originally designed to fulfill a limited work scope defined in the token sale docs and other pre-launch materials (building the chain software; getting through Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Serenity), which was fully completed in 2022; it was not designed to be an eternal steward. And so today, the EF is choosing to use its remaining resources to pursue longevity over breadth (yes, this means we sell less ETH). The EF focuses *specifically* on those activities critical to the success of ethereum as a censorship/capture-resistant, open, private and secure system, that would not happen otherwise. This means making hard choices, and in some cases even activities that we highly approve of and people that we highly respect becoming outside of the EF. People of great technical talent, public respect and even alignment with the mission and CROPS being outside of the EF is in fact necessary if we want important tasks to be able to attract outside capital. This also means the EF taking opinionated stands culturally. This is all intended in cooperation with all other parts of ethereum. We recognize that many other parts of the ethereum world highly respect CROPS and related values. But highly respecting is not the same as choosing to specialize and totally dedicate to a domain (Compare in a different domain: I think reducing animal cruelty is important, and I like vegan food, but am not full unconditional vegan myself) EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months. What are the guiding principles of this new form? Again, I am only one person, but I can give my answer from a technical perspective (there are also critical non-technical aspects). At the core, *Ethereum must be impressive*. We are living in an age of highly intelligent AI and all kinds of other technological acceleration. "Status quo EVM, with a hard fork or two a year to optimize for short-term needs of users" is not interesting. To some, "impressive" means: 250ms latency and 1M TPS. I think Ethereum trying to go that route is a mistake. Being as fast and as scalable as possible, and only a small epsilon more decentralized than the others, is a route to mediocrity, and if we try it we will lose. I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension. This means things like: * Provably bug-free Ethereum. This is a goal that all cybersecurity researchers would have thought is absurd and impossible, up until roughly 6 months ago. Now, it's on the cusp of being possible, thanks to AI-assisted formal verification. So we should be frontrunners in doing this. * Available chain consensus. Ethereum is, and with lean consensus will cotninue to be, the ONLY chain that has both (i) traditional-BFT style properties that it's safe under asynchrony up to a high level of fault tolerance, and (ii) the bitcoin PoW-style property that under synchrony it's safe up to 49% attackers. As far as I can tell, literally no other chain has this or is planning for it; bitcoin goes for (ii) only and most other chains go for (i) only. Some will remember I fought hard for this, Unreasonably insisting that it is not OK for ethereum to rely on social consensus and hard forks to rescue ethereum from 34% of nodes going offline. It's OK for chains like hyperledger, bnb, solana, tempo, etc. It's not OK for bitcoin or ethereum or eg. zcash. * Intermediary minimization. The fact that smart contract wallets, protocols like railgun, etc have to send transactions through intermediaries to get included onchain is honestly embarrassing, and it's a constant point of fragility. Hence the work on FOCIL and EIP-8141 (and 7701 and years of work before) to make transaction sending intermediary-minimized with public mempool and strong inclusion properties, in a truly general-purpose way, that covers not just eg. secp256r1, but also privacy protocols and much more. Kohaku is pushing intermediary minimization at the user layer, pulling Ethereum away from the dystopian status quo world where our wallets don't even verify the chain, send our private data out to a dozen third-party servers, and toward a brighter CROPS future. Some of these goals are Unreasonable - maybe Ethereum would be "fine" getting only 50% of the way - what if we depend on intermediaries, but make it easy to switch? But going 50% of the way would not make Ethereum Deeply Impressive in the CROPS way. So we push for 100%. Fortunately all these goals are compatible with high TPS, this is a major focus of research (esp. on scaling the state). Well-designed L2s can also help, especially L2s optimized for specific applications (eg. high-volume trading, privacy...). These goals are even compatible with significantly lower slot times, thanks to Raul's work on erasure-coded P2P, and many other optimizations. The most high-value "product" of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH. The types of properties of Ethereum that I mentioned above are very good for ETH the asset. Nearly 90% of my net worth is in ETH, and most of the remainder is ~$40m of onchain fiat of which every dollar has already been allocated for some open-source biotech or software or hardware initiative. That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset - *necessary* aspects even - that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help. EF has been recently thinking more about how it will relate to other such organizations, and give them needed initial support. EF will be a smaller ship than in previous years, a more opinionated one - in some cases more opinionated in ways that might be difficult to comprehend - but a longer-lasting one, and one suited to making sure that ethereum brings something meaningful to the world. We are grateful to all those inside and outside the EF who are helping to make this happen.

The Plan? Start a VC fund for "everyone" but only invest in companies they've already missed at insane valuations deep into series G rounds. We'll charge them 3% for something they can't even sell. Think about it. Hedge fund fees for VC illiquidity with mutual fund marketing.

Naval @naval

2 months ago

Introducing USVC - a single basket of high-growth venture capital, for everyone. No accreditation required, SEC-registered, and a very low $500 minimum. Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Sierra, Crusoe, Legora, and Vercel. As USVC adds more companies, investors will own a

792 960 12K 5.3M 12K

@Jason i’m in

Following the KelpDAO hack, we built an open analysis of DVN security configurations across every active OApp on LayerZero over the last 90 days. Of ~2,665 unique OApp contracts: 47% run a 1-of-1 DVN security floor, 45% run 2-of-2, and ~5% run 3-of-3 or higher. As we know, KelpDAO's rsETH sat in the first bucket. Open query, public methodology, feedback welcome: dune.com/dune/layerzero…

Agree with this and would also encourage all asset issuers to consider rate limits at the mint & redemption level, as well as a custom rate limit configuration on top of LZ OFTs. We built a solution on top of the standard OFT to throttle cross chain transfers at $10m per hour for every DVN, in addition to the $10m per block rate limit on the mint contract. The former would have prevented Kelp, the latter Resolv. In a disaster scenario where the LZ DVN is compromised you can at least contain the damage to $10m per chain per hour before stepping in to shut down transfers entirely. Yes it’s a slightly annoying inconvenience for users 99% of the time, but a worthwhile trade off to avoid going to zero. If you would like support on adding the same custom OFT configuration please reach out directly to myself or the team.

Keone Hon @keoneHD

2 months ago

Feels like pooled lending protocols would benefit from a rate limit on the supply of an asset being deposited for collateral Like, if the current supply is 100m and the supply cap is 300m, the supply should only be allowed to go to 110m in the next 10 minutes. Nobody needs to

82 80 817 173K 107

Every Defi protocol should have: 1. Circuit breakers for deposit and withdrawals, and possibly other internal operations as well 2. Timelocks for any change 3. Security councils that can shut down protocols immediately We don't need insurance, we need to do start doing the ffcking basics correctly. It's too early for this space to drive without any training wheels. I beg you, sacrifice a tiny bit of UX to gain a lot of peace of mind. The worst possible UX is losing your user's money.

I'm dropping a thread of all the protocols that had to freeze their interop because of LayerZero being compromised. Let's go:

⚠️ We've been made aware of impersonators inviting users to fake Discord servers and sharing fraudulent investment opportunities while claiming to represent Dewhales. Please keep in mind: 1. We do not send invitations. Accredited investors (net worth of $1M+) must apply directly through our website. 2. We do not operate any Discord server. 3. We do not have any public Telegram groups. Any unsolicited message, invite, or "opportunity" claiming to come from us is a scam. The only legitimate way to reach Dewhales is through our official website. We've created a dedicated verification page where you can confirm whether the person you're speaking with legitimately represents Dewhales: 🔗 verify.dewhales.com

The older I get the more I realise what I should optimise my life for - Health - Little to no stress (financial or external) - Friendships - Fulfilment in my work That’s literally it. It’s pretty simple really.

The issue with crypto today is that most people fully lost trust in altcoins. They no longer want to hold anything long-term, after seeing countless teams launch tokens only to get exit liquidity. The legitimate projects out there are drowned out by bad actors.

@Auri_0x @DewhalesCapital When did I protect Cole or Elixir? I've been pushing them since moment 0 They do not pay anything, and in fact I'm also at big L by investing in Elixir myself

@Auri_0x @DewhalesCapital That being said, you know we’d love to see better outcomes. Funding has been extremely bad since mid-2024 as ppl have pointed out. and TBH, 99% of alts have been struggling We’ve been at a standstill for quite some time now. No new cheques. Only liquidity provisioning

@Auri_0x @DewhalesCapital Be accountable for your actions. You clicked the button, did your own DD, and made your call. Same for sizing. Your math is not even factoring in LP deals. You weren’t removed for asking questions, but for insulting teams when there are many different ways to do that

bullish on teams that keep their word

here's my answer: governance.aave.com/t/aave-cowswap…

Gold acting like Bitcoin. Bitcoin acting like a boomer stock. Boomer stocks acting like memecoins. This is the worst timeline possible.