Reuven Neumann @NeumnRub

@Eran_Efrat עדיין מוקדם מדי. ההסכם כרגע הוא הסכם להסכם, לפי המידע שעולה. האפקט של המערכה שהייתה עדיין מצטבר לאורך זמן. בינתיים ישראל עושה קונסולידציה בדרום לבנון ובעזה. והנכסים הצבאיים האמריקאיים עדיין כאן, נחכה ונראה בעוד חודשיים לאן הרוח נושבת.

@Eran_Efrat יותר זול מהעמדה לאיתור ירי ארטילרי ואתה יכול לפרוס 10 כאלו וזה סוגר לך קו של 2-4 ק״מ לפחות ונותן לך התראה יפה אם עובר שם משהו ולאיזה כיוון.

@Eran_Efrat אתה מודע לכך שמערכת לאיתור מקורות ירי פעילה בארה״ב ושעכשיו פורסים מערכת לאיתור וחיוב רכבים צופרים בערים? ושישנה מערכת לאיתור ירי ארטילרי מבוססת קול בנוסף למכ״ם? אז רחפן באבאיאגה עם רחפן פיזור מיקרופונים ומצלמות קטנות מתכווננות שיושבים על צמרות עצים מתקשרים בוויפי עם הבאבא סוגר תא

@Eran_Efrat כיום עם AI שמאומן על לזהות זבובים ציפורים ויתושים (כל אנומליה ביחס לשמיים או לרקע שהוא יחסית סטטי) יכול לשבת על מכשיר קצה מספיק קטן עם סוללה שתספיק לו גם לשבוע. או עם פריסה של גנרטור וכבלים אפשר לפרוס יותר אמצעים כאלו מיותר רחוק ולתת גילוי גם מרחוק. במיוחד אם נפרס לא מאויש.

@andyvanboom @PaulRChase @thenotoriousCP @DrJStrategy Mass media comment was in reference to Vance so called frustration. Could be true, could be false, couldn't care less. Lloyds isn't mass media and I wasn't referring to them as such. And if something like that was in March, well, US is there now to muscle things.

@andyvanboom @PaulRChase @thenotoriousCP @DrJStrategy Whose oil can be purchased in Yuan? Russia is having issues in selling to china as far as I can tell. Iran is not really in a position to do much. Venezuela, sells through US now. the gulf oil companies? Mass media reporting is not something to really consider or care about.

@PaulRChase @thenotoriousCP @DrJStrategy You started by {"If" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your post} and then turned up carrying four hidden ones, a crystal ball, and a fog machine. “Everything changes” is not analysis. It is what remains after the argument has gone missing.

@PaulRChase @thenotoriousCP @DrJStrategy Yes, and unlike yours, mine is explicit. Your whole argument rests on hidden ifs: if Gulf states realign, if the dollar order cracks, if regime weakening means state collapse, if collapse means sectarian chaos. That’s not certainty. That’s speculation dressed up as analysis.

@PaulRChase @thenotoriousCP @DrJStrategy You’re smuggling “if the regime falls, America owns the aftermath” into a different claim. My point was simpler: the Iranian people may be the main beneficiaries if the regime is broken and given a real opening. Nation-building is another question entirely.

@PaulRChase @thenotoriousCP @DrJStrategy “...the main beneficiary of which will be Netanyahu and the extremists in his cabinet.” I had thought the main beneficiaries would be the Iranian people, freed from their regime. Silly me. Is toppling the Iranian regime in the U.S. interest? Y/N?

@PaulRChase @DrJStrategy Your point about POTUS being manipulated by the Zionist leader on Iran is peculiar. Trump was talking about military action against Iran and taking their oil since 1980 in multiple interviews. Are you saying Trump was being manipulated by a furniture salesman (Bibi) since 1980?

@realDonaldTrump Also, the US has a long and bloody account with Iran since the hostages crises, later with the marines barracks, to the meddling in Iraq (they were responsible for hundreds of US deaths by IED's) and more. Now they need to finish the job and topple the terrorist regime.

@realDonaldTrump A huge contrast to 1991 when the US built a coalition and forbade Israel to retaliate against Iraq when they fired missiles on them. Now Israel was bombing the bejesus out of Iran and Trump had FOMO. A good call as the US wanted to test the GBU on real targets for a while now.

@unherd @joeroganhq @DouglasKMurray @freddiesayers The ignorant, however, can still be reached. Douglas could help by consistently highlighting the built-in dilemma between over- and underreaction — especially when public debate focuses solely on one type of mistake.

@unherd @joeroganhq @DouglasKMurray @freddiesayers Discourse that fixates on Israel’s “overreaction” while ignoring the cost of underreaction either stems from ignorance — or from having already chosen Hamas’s side. The latter is a matter for the relevant security and legal authorities.

@unherd @joeroganhq @DouglasKMurray @freddiesayers Unfortunately, this essential framing was entirely absent in the latest podcast — and it is precisely the kind of framework that should guide any meaningful discussion on the topic.