Moss @NoFootball3

Need help building some conviction in your AI names during this market downturn? Read this post. Bookmark it. Come back to it. Let Paradis guide you: In my view, AI names are broadly down for a few reasons: 1. The market viewed $AVGO earnings + guidance as decelerating growth. 2. Hawkish turn from the Fed. 3. A cluster of AI bubble commentary at the end of June. Please note what's not on that list: 1. Hyperscaler capex cuts. 2. Cancelled orders. 3. HBM oversupply. 4. Collapsing GPU rental pricing, etc etc. Broadly speaking, absolutely nothing negative has happened on the demand side. If you strip the whole AI trade down to first principles, it mainly boils into two layers that the market always confuses: 1. Financial stuff e.g. equity valuations, financing loops, neocloud debt stacks, where scepticism is warranted and where some pullbacks are healthy. 2. Physical stuff e.g. wafers, HBM, CoWoS capacity, optics, where demand > supply essentially everywhere. Nothing's changed on the physical layer. So in my opinion, this sell off is just a reset before hyperscalers guide capex in their upcoming earnings. But, for the case of this post - let me just stress test the bear case for the AI trade: Basically everyone's desperate for compute rn. Total hyperscaler capex guidance for 2026 is near $725B across $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META and $ORCL. Plus the OpenAI and Anthropic compute commitments layered on top. I think that capex guidance has been revised up by every credible institution over a dozen times this year so far. From Goldmans, to MS, to BofA. And I am sure that during earnings coming up soon, pretty much all of them will revise their capex forecasts up for 2026 remaining. It was just a week or so ago, but remember how everyone felt about the $MU earnings? Pretty good, right? HBM sold out...LTAs...growing volumes of locked in demand/pricing.......I could go on and on. But I feel like the bear case I see most often lately is to do with $NVDA's ecosystem commitments. E.g. their ~$124B spider web of investments + POs across areas like LLM labs and neoclouds. I'll look at that a bit below, but they exist because fronteir demand is outpacing everyone's balance sheet + ability to fund it. But first, you MUST realise that the structural driver has shifted in a way that "bubble" doom posters miss/ignore: - The 2023/24 phase was a training-led capex cycle with lumpy and cancellable revenue. - The 2025/26 phase is inference and agent led with reliable recurring and usage based revenue. Inference demand compounds with deployment = so do financials. This is the transition dark fibre never made in 2000 where telecom infra was built ahead of a demand curve that took something like a decade to actually arrive. Compared to AI compute that is being built behind a demand curve aka shortages. Shortages are not bubbles! In 1999-2000, telecom capex was funded by companies burning cash. In 2026, the marginal dollar of AI capex is funded by 5 of the largest cash generation machines ever. They're so well insulated from the capex they're spending that it won't matter in a few years time. Now, I think we all know that AI names are super crowded. I've noticed that since joining X where I get people commenting things like "What happened to $AAOI?" and "Do you like $SIVE?" when the names drop 10% in a day from volatility. But on top of that, you look at data like BofA Fund Manager Survey that shows >80% of managers naming long-AI/semis. That's a record high for any trade or thematic in the survey's history. So crowding of this level mechanically deepens drawdowns because everyone's stop is behind everyone else's...it can become a vicious cycle on red days. And it explains why an >10% air pocket can arrive on no company or sector news at all. Then you've got idiots posting online and going on podcasts saying that the AI trade is just like the internet trade back in 1997. But as we all know, those internet names like Pets dot com had literally no cash flows and most had fugazi financials. You just have look at the financials for companies like $SNDK which people also say is a bubble. They seem kinda fine to me? And will be fine going forwards. (Understating it slightly, their earnings will largely all be fantastic) That being said.... Let me actually give you signals to look for that'll actually change my mind on whether I have conviction or just blind faith in the AI trade: 1. Capex cuts from hyperscalers rather than a deceleration in growth. 2. GPU rental spot pricing declining sustainably rather than plateauing. 3. HBM contract pricing rolling over while supply agreements get renegotiated. 4. Neocloud credit spreads gapping to distressed levels. 5. Fronteir labs like Anthropic/OpenAI seeing MRR's decline or stall. These are probably the big five "tripwires" + none have been triggered so far. I don't see any being triggered for the forseeable future. But all you need to know for a TLDR bull case for the AI theme is: - demand for compute remains supply constrained. - hyperscalers funding the capex are cash flow generative machines. - valuations for high quality names from $SNDK to $MU to $AVGO to $NVDA are stupidly low. On top of everything else mentioned here (I could keep going but I'll save you from reading more of my ramblings/rants). That being said, in my view, there's certainly a case to rotate into higher quality names rather than random upstream shitcos. I've mentioned this many times over the past couple of weeks. From 2025 to early Q2 2026, you could basically long almost any name that had some sort of ties to AI and it'd go up 100% in weeks. $POET and $IREN come to mind. I personally think being a little more selective going forwards will be more crucial, and financials will matter a lot more than going long a name that just falls in the AI bucket.

I lived the 2020-2022 EV bubble first hand and I’m seeing a ton of similarities with the current AI bubble, albeit this one is much larger It began with US companies running hard and an IPO frenzy of small/midsize scalers ($CRWV, $CBRS, Databricks) Think 2020 Tesla = 2025 Nvidia Battery Companies = HBM Charging Companies = Energy Suppliers Lithium and Cobalt = Copper and Silver Mid stage of the bubble we saw Chinese companies start to IPO and run hard as the US companies had been parabolic for a year Micron and soon to IPO Yangtze Memory The most anticipated IPO in 2020 was Rivian and marked the absolute pico top This time we’re getting SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI This bubble is far more meaningful and larger than EVs but there are a striking amount of similarities in the timeline and trickledown of the supply chains Everyone knew we were in a bubble and it’s no different this time

Since I’m apparently sharing all the alpha recently, here’s a monster: Data says crypto summer — Feb 2018 was the only real false signal for near-to-mid-term outperformance 13w out from April 27th = July 27th 🫡

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

$VVV emissions dropped by 17% today. Emissions are dropping by another 20% on June 1st. And another 25% on top of that on July 1st. Venice API token usage has grown by more than 10x since January. The majority of the VVV circulating supply is staked. And the revenue Venice is generating is completely uncorrelated with crypto prices. No better setup in crypto.

@boqdan_ Up for testing if you still want people!

@Jacobsklug @openclaw @Lovable OS

"How will Amp know that it did the right thing?" I now ask myself this question many times a day, every time I write a prompt. "Is there a way it can verify this?" Because if there is... Sky's the limit, baby, it'll rip through anything.

The famous 4Chan poster who has made many famous BTC predictions has just posted again! This time calling for new ATHs and a meme coin super cycle 🤯 Will he be right again?

We just open sourced the code-simplifier agent we use on the Claude Code team. Try it: claude plugin install code-simplifier Or from within a session: /plugin marketplace update claude-plugins-official /plugin install code-simplifier Ask Claude to use the code simplifier agent at the end of a long coding session, or to clean up complex PRs. Let us know what you think!

if you're using Obsidian with Claude Code, tell me about your workflow, and what you've used it for

File over app File over app is a philosophy: if you want to create digital artifacts that last, they must be files you can control, in formats that are easy to retrieve and read. Use tools that give you this freedom. File over app is an appeal to tool makers: accept that all software is ephemeral, and give people ownership over their data. In the fullness of time, the files you create are more important than the tools you use to create them. Apps are ephemeral, but your files have a chance to last. The pyramids of Egypt contain hieroglyphs that were chiseled in stone thousands of years ago. The ideas hieroglyphs convey are more important than the type of chisel that was used to carve them. The world is filled with ideas from generations past, transmitted through many mediums, from clay tablets to manuscripts, paintings, sculptures, and tapestries. These artifacts are objects that you can touch, hold, own, store, preserve, and look at. To read something written on paper all you need is eyeballs. Today, we are creating innumerable digital artifacts, but most of these artifacts are out of our control. They are stored on servers, in databases, gated behind an internet connection, and login to a cloud service. Even the files on your hard drive use proprietary formats that make them incompatible with older systems. Paraphrasing something I wrote recently: > If you want your writing to still be readable on a computer from the 2060s or 2160s, it’s important that your notes can be read on a computer from the 1960s. You should want the files you create to be durable, not only for posterity, but also for your future self. You never know when you might want to go back to something you created years or decades ago. Don’t lock your data into a format you can’t retrieve. These days I write using an app I help make called Obsidian (@obsdmd), but it’s a delusion to think it will last forever. The app will eventually become obsolete. It’s the plain text files I create that are designed to last. Who knows if anyone will want to read them besides me, but future me is enough of an audience to make it worthwhile.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

we are approaching what is likely to be the most perilous point in the AI-birthing process: the point at which we have AI which can automate the work of many entry-level knowledge workers, but is not nearly sufficient to produce hyper-abundance for hyper-abundance, we need mass-scale robotics and possibly AGI and resultant technologies. but we are not there, and we may not be there for anything from 10-30+ years this differs in character from the second industrial revolution, which really began with the railroads. the railroads were a network for people, but especially for goods. it catalyzed massive economic development via regional specialization. this was followed by the harnessing of electricity. both gave rise to a new kind of urban America though many jobs disappeared in that era, so many more were created. there was so much demand for labor that children were recruited to work in the factories, and everyone was working impossibly long shifts under squalid conditions eventually, the people stepped up as they saw the comparatively hyper-abundant (and very concentrated) wealth being generated, and demanded a better lifestyle. the result was a series of worker reforms which have carried through pretty much to our modern era and the birth of the American middle class but we don't have that hyper-abundancy which can even be redistributed yet, and we are likely staring down the barrel of greater job loss and growing wealth inequality in the near-term i have no idea how to resolve these issues, but it is obvious that we are not really trying as a society, though i suspect the issue will be forced at some point in ways which people don't like. sloppy wealth taxes are but the first manifestation. it will get much worse if the people with means don't try to work proactively to address the current state of affairs for now, they shall suffice by making you fear people who are different from you to distract you as they concentrate their power and wealth even more. it is your prerogative to indulge them and your base instincts if you wish, but don't be deluded from the game which is currently being played

Today we’re announcing a developer release of the Jua Kali Miner - an open source project that allows farmers and small industries to make use of their excess solar energy to mine Bitcoin. With a live demo at #abc25

3000 to 1800ish moment like 2017?

Crypto Rover @cryptorover

11 months ago

💥BREAKING: BITCOIN DROPPED BELOW $102,000 TONIGHT.

131 99 650 91K 23

haven't posted this in a while - it's a sneaky local top indicator. vechain. if this thing spikes, you're in danger. risk goes up as this increasingly gets to a meaningful reclaim of its prev ATH. perfectly captured march 2024 top, and dec 2024 alt highs. right now: cold.

From my article, "Big Fast Games." drgurner.substack.com/p/playing-big-…

BREAKING: MIT just completed the first brain scan study of ChatGPT users & the results are terrifying. Turns out, AI isn't making us more productive. It's making us cognitively bankrupt. Here's what 4 months of data revealed: (hint: we've been measuring productivity all wrong)

Found the culprit for the fertility crisis

My brothers/sisters in Christ who are in $BMNR, watch out for the PIPE investment lock up period and when it ends. Early insiders got in at $4.5. They're sitting on 10x gains, expect some to lock in profits and sell. Oct 2025 is your D-Day