Novacula Occami @OccamiCrypto
Wall St/TradFi Refuge. Crypto Realist. Maxi ideology rarely survives contact with economic pragmatism but blockchain can change finance. Joined April 2023-
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The Coinbase/Circle "partnership" is perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Open USD consortium that was announced this morning. $COIN has a sweetheart deal (in perpetuity) with $CRCL with COIN earning the majority of USDC's revenues (and with a higher margins on those same revenues than Circle can produce). Yet rather than defend that deal, @brian_armstrong has decided to go all in on Open USD and compete with USDC while also benefitting from it. Maybe it's a strategic hedge, but it's flipping the middle finger at Circle (or at a minimum not showing huge confidence). What we do know is tdhe COIN/CRCL relationship isn't going to improve after this....🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿
Excited to advance the adoption of stablecoins! Let’s update the financial system.
Well, yesterday's $MSTR's pop from the ostentatiously named "Digital Capital Framework" didn't last very long. The problem for Strategy is shoring up the balance sheet and liquidity (rational steps by the Board) by planning to sell BTC immediately pressures BTC's price given the outsized role Strategy plays in perceptions around BTC. It's like two drunks leaning on each other to keep standing...
The Open USD will be an interesting test of the resiliency of an existing stablecoin's network effect. USDT and USDC continue to dominate because their competitive advantage is circulation. Sharing more yield, which is the thesis many are citing around Open USD, has been tried time and time again. It hasn't worked. Just ask Tether, who dominate stablecoin circulation and share zero revenues. The more interesting thing about Open USD is the financial behemoths behind it. Circle and Tether have the circulation, but Stripe, Visa, Mastercard have all the heft to drive volumes through Open USD.....let's see if they do. Whatever happens, it's not going to be quick.
Introducing Open USD: a stablecoin built for the internet economy, designed by the businesses growing it. joinopenstandard.com/blog/introduci…
@saylor describes $STRC as uniquely attractive digital capital and the engine of MSTR's ability to buy more BTC But it's just a preferred equity - and the preferred market relies not on tweets but assessments of risk and cash flow. And the $STRC price action is telling you that assessment isn't looking very good.
All the ongoing debates around will MSTR blow up or not really miss the point. The only question that should be asked is does owning MSTR outperform just owning BTC or a BTC ETF. That outperformance worked when #MSTR was had a mNAV premium (on a common basis) to BTC. That's hasn't been the case since Nov of last year, and #MSTR has underperformed ever since. And saddling the company with $1.7B of annual dividends that can only be met by selling common, further makes any dream of outperformance just that...a dream
What a day for $STRC. When it rains it pours. When panic is setting in, it helps to revisit the fundamentals of why you made the investment in the first place. The main thing to focus on is that STRC is designed as a "bend, not break" instrument. Or, better yet, a "Stretch, not
Let's recap on @MicroStrategy as I've not posted in a while - #MSTR is down 70% in the last year, underperforming BTC by ~3800bps ~ #MSTR market cap of $39.3B is at a 27% discount to its BTC holdings ~@saylor continues to issue common to pay his preferred dividends, but his $1.4B "USD Reserve" covers less than 10 months of dividends ~his #STRC is trading at 89.....and again, people, pref investors like cash flow/dividend coverage If you love BTC, own BTC. If you want to underperform BTC, own #MSTR -- @saylor will thank you for it
When you spend six months trying to sell a couple percent of your Tether equity at a ridiculous $500b valuation with Cantor and can’t….. You shift to hawking your stock to retail with some shitty little investment bank nobody has heard of…..
Top 6 Questions for @tether at tonight's investor pitch in Miami: 1) Why does Tether pretend Paolo @paoloardoino runs the company, when Giancarlo Devasini controls it unilaterally? 2) Is this a growth round, or a liquidity event for insiders? Whose shares are being sold and
@BitcoinJuicy Yep. @saylor has issued about 9x more $MSTR common that STRC. MSTR still trades at a discount to its BTC. If you love BTC, own it. Not MSTR
Binance and Tron and Tether and Iran…….oh my!
This story with @bdanweiss is built from documents we reviewed put together by internal investigators who uncovered the flows and were later fired by Binance, though the exchange has denied they were terminated for surfacing compliance concerns fortune.com/2026/03/12/bin…
Bad historic analogy. Stablecoins are network businesses, which is why USDT and USDC dominate. Every new stablecoin that has launched has gained virtually no traction. The Tether bulls thought USAT would be a fully fungible on-shore work around for Tether’s refusal to be US-compliant. But Tether is clearly not actively supporting it. They could have minted billions on their own just to give it a market cap boost - but Paolo and team have done zip. And there’s simply zero reason to use an onshore USAT and that’s not going to change with the passage of time.
Tether’s onshore USAT launched in late January and did an initial mint of $20M, and since then they have minted zero new USAT. Nobody is using it. Daily volume was an embarrassing $6M yesterday and that was despite USAT having launched on Bitfinex, Kraken, Moonpay, HTX, MEXC, BTSE, Token Pocket, Coin98, Bidget Wallet, Liquid, Hold Station, IMtoken, Rumble Wallet, Alchemy Pay, AEON, Bitqik, Mercado Bitcoin, Coins.ph, FoxBit, PDAX, Recurrent, Poloniex and Biconomy. All the distribution in the world doesn’t make a shitty little stablecoin something other than a shitty little stablecoin. #USAT
Uh? STRC is a B- rated pref issued by a company that can only fund the dividend by issuing more common. Even with the first weekly sale of any size in STRC, it’s still tiny relative to what @saylor used to issue. And MSTR continues to underperform BTC and it trades at a discount to BTC. If you love BTC, own it. Don’t waste your time with MSTR or STRC.
@UpwardFrood @saylor Price is irrelevant. Issuance is what matters as @saylor needs pref leverage to replace the converts. Yet pref investors don’t like what MSTR is selling……it’s not about anything I say. Just watch the volume of STRC sales..
Another Monday check in on $MSTR and its “digital credit solution”…… $STRC. (Hint, it ain’t credit) Another underwhelming week. Only $7.1M of $STRC sold. So @saylor falls back on issuing $230M of common. 7 months since launching the $4.2B STRC ATM, 84% remains unsold.
@UpwardFrood @saylor Sure, it’s just the facts. STRC gets a lot of tweets from the faithful, but it ain’t selling despite the eye watering yield.
Crypto journalism can be so dumb. Tether didn’t tap Deloitte for the attestation for “rounding error” USAT stablecoin. Anchorage did. “Tether” is nowhere on the USAT attestation, only Anchorage who is the issuer. Tether is just the name on the coin.
$STRC is junk rated (S&P ‘B-“) pref equity risk. So it’s worse that junk debt as it sits below all debt in the credit stack. $MSTR has negative operating cash flow, so it can only fund the dividends payable on its pref by issuing common shares. Pref investors don’t like risk like this, which is why $STRC isn’t selling at the pace @saylor clearly expected when he set up the $4.2B ATM
@GoddessDefi Sorry. That’s bull shit. USDC is onshore in the US and regulated. They always respond to court orders, law enforcement requests and OFAC sanctions. Tether viewed all of those as optional until Dec ‘24
Tether has frozen $4.2B of USDT at the request of authorities I just checked for comparison how much USDC has likewise been frozen: $117 million. 36x more USDT has been frozen than USDC. Tether clearly is the leading stablecoin for illicit finance by a wide margin. No wonder they don’t want to go legit and get regulated.
Tether says it has frozen $4.2 billion of its stablecoin over crime links reut.rs/4bjFFQ7 reut.rs/4bjFFQ7
@stansilver2024 Under the El Salvador digital regulations, they are supposed to provide the Salvadoran regulator audited financials by June. I’m not holding my breath
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