Oil Bandit 🛢️ @OilCfd
Hydrocarbons barbarian. You are here for Oil & Tanker analytics #OOTT theoilbandit.substack.com Outside Joined November 2019-
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They are not confessing, they are they bragging. Iranian linked vessels lighted up like a Christmas tree, most are pinging AIS in real time...
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@Schwerepunkt @ed_fin you think they can pass the cost? look how the west and Asia rushed to shield consumers from fuel prices...Anyway, Greeks won't pay, and no port state control will detent your ship for not paying the Iranians. Not gonna happen
@ed_fin @Schwerepunkt they better man-up because they are trying to re-write maritime law without them... Trump couldn't care less, that's why is leaving this mess for others to solve
@Schwerepunkt @ed_fin China is dependent on Hormuz & Malacca, Russia is dependent on Danish and Turkish straits... you think these two will let Iran set a precedent?
@CommoditiesGuy @ALikhodedov @Rory_Johnston @UnintendedCons5 @CRUDEOIL231 the "sour" premium is just $1.. doesn't make any sense either
rumors of a WS550 on subs = 111$/mt = 14.8$/bbl
VLCC futures curve: Spot Ws500 July Ws400 Aug Ws300 Sep Ws250 quite a backwardation...
@refineryritolia well...India hasn't care much about policy since 2022, in the end bbls will flow to the cheapest delivery point, or take a deeper haircut. I don't see many willing buyers other than India & China
@ed_fin last I heard were some of these degenerates asking WS600.. no one will pay that
@JavierBlas Late Jun/aug you should see numbers pick up. They have been buying something like 2Mnpd above previous months.
@SullyCNBC the thing is anyone with a VHF radio on channel 16 can make threats, if yours to believe them. It's True the Iranian navy loses a source of revenue from this MoU so expected for them to be messing around. No one paid and will pay tolls
@DryBulkETF and you won't... word goes out when we see the vessels loading. I don't know how you guys will index this
@ALikhodedov it has to... Glasford, PetroChina shipping arm was looking for VLCCs yesterday out of Ras Tanura. We need to do the math with "free-flowing" Iranian bbls now. They should suck everything is floating around China before sanctions are lifted
-How bad is it? -They are sending 3 VLCCs with Murban to Europe, sir
@NebHuskies last week, they say there are 3 more sold.
first numbers out of the Persian Gulf. KPC (Kuwait) paid $14/bbl for a PG->Sing
@ALikhodedov it was Korea mostly, there were two bound foe China.. but I doubt they are still there.. it looks like Saudi origin cargos are the ones stuck, but should be less that 40mb by now
@ALikhodedov yeah, total liftings in the area
Previously we had ~270 VLCC fixtures per month out of the Middle East.... we are kind of balanced. Atlantic arb is shut (and will remain so), not the best setup for Q3
@Lexonefun because they can't sell murban/oman to anyone
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