OptionsJive @OptionsJive

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$NVDA reports after the close tonight. The options market is pricing a $280 billion swing on one print, and it sets positioning across the AI complex for weeks. A NVDA 210 call expiring Friday costs 5.90. The same strike expiring Monday costs 6.25. Three extra days for 35 cents. Friday's line is at 99.2% IV. Monday's is at 67.9%. Both own tonight's earnings, but one charges double for it. My full structure is on the Patreon. Strikes, greeks, breakevens, and the risk nobody mentions. Link in comments.

youtu.be/bIela_HGDnE

Everything moved against me at once: $MSFT dropped -26%, gold corrected -30%, silver got crushed -55%, oil spiked. Those were my largest exposures. My portfolio still crossed $2,000,000. New video walks through the whole mess, link's in the comments.

There is something strange in the volatility surface of $MSTR that lets you build risk-free trades whose payoff never drops below zero at expiration. Almost every stock has put skew. Downside options cost more than upside options the same distance away, because everyone who owns stock buys protection. #MSTR runs the other way. The upside is the expensive side. A risk-free options structure normally pays you the risk-free rate and stops there. That part is rho, the only Greek left once the risk is gone. Here the skew and the convexity of the surface pay on top of it, for as long as the shape holds. I put the position on today. Worst case it makes $64. Best case it returns 27% a year on the buying power, all risk-free. Every leg and every fill in today's article.

patreon.com/OptionsJive/po…

patreon.com/OptionsJive/po…

I sold a Big Lizard in $DRAM this morning, and no matter how high it goes, I still get paid. DRAM went zero to $10B in 7 weeks, a pace only the biggest Bitcoin and gold launches have matched. I went through the holdings file: 3 companies are 70% of this memory chip fund, and it's paying 74.6% implied volatility. Almost nobody trades a Big Lizard. Full trade structure in today's article. Link in the first comment.

patreon.com/OptionsJive/po…

"Why so few trade ideas lately?" - got that question again this week. We were sitting in the most toxic environment a premium seller can face. $VIX and $VVIX at yearly lows. And I don't force trades. 80% of this job is waiting with patience for real asymmetry and managing what's already on. That's it. This morning the market finally handed us something worth taking. Two new ideas are up, one for a full book and one sized for a smaller account, plus the number that decided which goes where. Link in first comment.

Did you know we also run a free Facebook group for active options traders? 1,000 of you found it: facebook.com/groups/9323800… That number means more to me than it probably should. Thank you for staying for the real trade mechanics instead of the hype. The next thousand get the same thing: real numbers, still free.

@joeytee_ Why?

@MikhailSOptions There's no gamma in these metrics.

It took seven months for my public options portfolio to print another all-time high. Seven months of chop, setbacks, and dozens of positions that refused to cooperate. But an edge doesn't need to work every month. What works, works.

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Today we're in the most toxic environment to sell volatility. $VVIX / $VIX just hit 6. I went back through the research on this ratio. Above 6, systematic S&P premium selling has run negative across 10 years of data. So today I'm doing something I don't usually do. Two calendars, both positive theta and positive vega, so if this ratio is right and volatility expands, my profit zone gets wider while I get paid to wait. Full breakdown, screenshots, and both structures are in the article. Link in the comments.

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Most traders treat an earnings report as one event on one date. I stopped doing that this year. A report is three separate volatility regimes stacked on one stock. The run-up into it, the print itself and the crush afterwards each pay a different Greek, so each one gets its own trade. In the fund we now run all three as one $NVDA campaign. I am publishing every step as it happens, including the marks that make my own research look silly. Link in the first comment.

Everyone buys $URA for uranium exposure. About 5% of it is uranium. The other 95% is 59 mining and engineering stocks carrying risk that has nothing to do with the price of a pound. And it implies higher vol than the one company that makes up 22% of it. Higher vol price, weaker exposure, so I split it. I own uranium through the producer. I sell the volatility through the ETF.

#Singapore turns 61 today. 🇸🇬 Singapore is one of the largest OptionsJive communities anywhere, and going by the questions I get, the sharpest. The most technical pushback in my inbox comes from your timezone. I have real admiration for the country. A small island with nothing underneath it, buying its water from across the causeway, and today it runs reserves that most oil states would envy. That is close to what I am trying to build here. I also know what your timezone costs you. I trade the same session from Dubai. My open is 5:30pm, my close is midnight. Yours is 9:30pm to 4am. Mine costs me an evening. Yours costs you a night, and then you go to work in the morning. That is why I take your emails seriously. Someone who reads a payoff diagram at 2am is not a casual reader. Thank you for reading, and for challenging me. You turned this into an unexpectedly strong home for my work. Happy 61st. Majulah Singapura!