The bond market situation is crazy.
While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007.
Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and mortgage rates could near 8%.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
BREAKING: US CPI inflation officially rises to +3.8%, its highest level since May 2023, amid surging oil prices.
In just 6 months, US gas prices have risen +65%.
For the first time in 3 years, US inflation is outpacing US wage growth.
US consumers are losing purchasing power.
Yesterday almost 50 major US stocks hit fresh 52-week lows.
These are not small caps.
These are S&P 500 names that millions of retail investors own through their index funds.
Here is the full list, sector by sector:
Today,
Currency pumps with stocks and Oil, market keeps surprising, $btc as expected, irrationally rallied from the 80.4k in a straight. With only 25m in liquidations, absorbtion is immense, algo’s said up and will remain doing so.
I agree with @coffeebreak_YT here
An insurance company and $STRC might look similar at first (both insurance claims and dividends being financed by new money coming in) but they are nothing alike…
Real insurance has decades of hard actuarial substance behind it, to name a few:
- Precise modeling of claim frequency (e.g., historical crash rates per 1,000 cars or per million miles driven)
- Severity distributions (average cost per wreck)
- Massive statistical databases and probability tables
Insurers aren’t gambling. They’re pricing their products with refined math on millions of real policies backed by decades of data and experience.
$STRC (@Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock) on the other hand is mostly backed by hope that @saylor can raise more money and Bitcoin keeps rising in price.
Don’t get me wrong, I see no issues with STRC until Strategy’s BTC reserves vs dividend liability ratio is healthy (currently at 1:5)
Due to Bitcoin’s nature and design, I also believe it should go up in price and Strategy’s STRC should remain attractive for investors for some time (even if the yield decreases)
The catastrophe comes when the assets/liabilities ratio tightens or turns negative, but since Saylor can adjust yields down at any time, this is not an issue for the foreseeable future.
TLDR: Although @PunterJeff did a great job during this interview, This comparison has no ground.
STRC dividends rely on continued investor demand and BTC price performance, while insurance relies on decades of data and probability calculations — among dozens of other measurable factors.
Let’s call a spade a spade
“The bottom is in.” “No it’s not.”
One of the dumbest arguments in crypto.
Why? Because traders do not get paid for calling the final bottom.
They get paid for trading the swings in between.
BTC went from 60k to 72k, 72k to 63k, 63k to 74k, 74k to 65k, 65k to 76k, 76k to 65k, 65k to 78k.
Those are huge moves.
If you missed all of that, the problem is not that you failed to identify the final bottom.
The problem is that you are not trading what is actually happening.
Real traders do not need the final answer.
They need the level. They need the reaction. They need to know if price accepted, rejected, reclaimed, or failed. That’s the job.
A real trader can be bullish from 65k and still flip tomorrow if price loses what matters.
That is not inconsistency. That is professionalism.
The people obsessed with proving the bottom is in or is not in are usually not trading. They are performing.
Price first. Levels first. Reaction first.
Everything else is just people talking.
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