Drake Maye's Season Passing Yards line sits at 3,750...
He dominated last year and gained two new weapons in AJ Brown who will dominate downfield and Romeo Doubs who will dominate the shallow game. What's stopping you from betting this?
Most draft guides give you a ranking and ask you to trust it.
This one shows the projection, the ADP, and the gap between them on every player, so you can see exactly where we disagree with the market and decide for yourself.
20 pages, free.
outsidezone.io/draft-manual
Coming back from injury, Daniel Jones still has a lot of prove but he was great last season in the games he played including 3100+ yards in just 13 games played.
His season yards line sits at 3300...
SEC vs Big Ten average schedule difficulty:
2025: 7.83 vs 7.55
2026: 8.27 vs 7.31
The gap went from 0.28 to 0.96.
SEC got harder. Big Ten got easier. Opposite directions.
Read more: outsidezone.io/insights/big-t…
Replacement level at tight end arrives at TE12. Half the position actively costs you points.
George Kittle goes at pick 109 and projects TE17. Hunter Henry goes at 153 and projects TE11.
More like this in the free 2026 draft manual.
outsidezone.io/draft-manual
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Biggest drops from clean pocket to pressure, EPA per target:
Quick out: +0.17 to -0.28, a 45 point swing
Dig: +0.40 to -0.09
Go: +0.46 to -0.07
Deep out: +0.39 to -0.01
Hitch/curl: +0.20 to -0.09
The quick out is the most-thrown route in football and the one that collapses hardest when the QB gets hit. Timing routes need time.
Bijan and Gibbs are 37 points of value clear of RB3. That's the largest gap at any position on any board I built.
Then twelve backs sit inside 39 points of each other, drafted anywhere from pick 18 to pick 40.
The whole board is in the free draft manual.
outsidezone.io/draft-manual
Eight of the 25 biggest win probability swings in football last season were field goals.
Daniel Carlson, 60 yards, 13 seconds left, Week 18 at Las Vegas: +50.0
Zane Gonzalez, 43 yards, 4 seconds, Week 15 at Tampa Bay: +45.9
Andre Szmyt, 49 yards, 3 seconds, Week 18 at Cincinnati: +45.8
Cairo Santos, 48 yards, 4 seconds, Week 11 at Minnesota: +43.9
Nearly a third of the most consequential plays in football came off a kicker's foot.
Kyren Williams put two of the ten costliest plays of the 2025 season into the same game.
Week 5 vs San Francisco.
Fourth quarter, 1:07 left, 1st and 3: fumbles at the SF 2. Rams win probability 70.8% to 11.9%.
Overtime, 3:41 left, 4th and 1: stuffed at the 11 for no gain. 79.9% to zero.
Three quarters apart, same afternoon.
Patrick Mahomes under pressure in 2025: -0.16 EPA per dropback.
That's the best mark in football and nobody is close. Second place is Drew Maye at -0.24.
Every quarterback in the league loses value when pressured. Mahomes just loses the least, and he's been doing it for a decade.
outsidezone.io
Rushing EPA per play by defenders in the box, 2025:
5 in the box: +0.14
6 in the box: +0.01
7 in the box: -0.05
8 in the box: -0.04
Light boxes are the most profitable run look in football and teams ran into one just 560 times all season. They ran into seven or more 6,137 times.
outsidezone.io
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