Patrick Johnson @PJohnsonNHN

Good to hear new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh say the 2% inflation target remains firmly in place. "There is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee’s watch. There’s only a target, and it’s 2%," Warsh says.

JUST IN: Federal Reserve keeps the benchmark interest rate the same (3.5 to 3.75%). That's where it's been since December. But look at the vote: 9 in favor, 3 against. All 3 dissenters wanted to HIKE interest rates today.

It's still tough for middle-class and moderate-income Americans. Inflation: 3.5% in the past year Wage gains: 3.5% in the past year Inflation is wiping out wage gains for many. Grocery prices also continue to rise. But the picture did look slightly better in June than in April or May. The decline in gas prices, along with declines in electricity, apparel and medical care help. The question is whether this relief is only temporary as the war in Iran restarts...

This was the merch line outside Fenway Park at noon ahead of Noah Kahan's show.

The line outside Fenway Park last night at 8PM for Noah Kahan merch.

Have a 4th!

The Economist's new BBQ Index tracks the prices of 10 American cookout staples across 25 cities, and this year's results are not good. The grocery basket now costs $81, which is 12% more than a year ago and "the fastest annual increase in a decade"

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Big news: The Supreme Court prevents President Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. This is a win for Fed independence. The vote was 5 to 4. "The Founders knew from experience the calamities that could arise from even the 'suspicion' of political manipulation of monetary policy." Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh and Jackson voted in favor of Fed independence. supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf…

JUST IN: Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%. But check out the reason...it happened due to far less imports than originally thought. Consumer spending -- the backbone of the US economy -- was anemic in Q1. It should rebound in Q2, but it's worth watching closely.

Americans are getting squeezed right now. They are no longer able to save much, if at all. The personal savings rate has dipped to 3% This is one of the lowest readings in the past 15 years. Personal savings rate May 2025: 4.9% Personal savings rate May 2026: 3% There's been a downward trend for awhile, though it's been especially sharp for the past year.

Fed votes unanimously to keep rates unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75%. But wow. What a dramatic change to the Fed statement. It's the shortest since the Alan Greenspan era. No forward guidance in the statement. The Dot Plot was released. It shows HALF expect to hike rates in 2026 (with at least 6 indicating two or more hikes).

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

2 months ago

Very hawkish dot plot. Nine out of 18 officials have at least one hike this year (and six of those 9 have *multiple hikes*). Only one person has a cut this year, and one participant (presumably Warsh) didn't submit an SEP The statement gets a complete writethru from top to

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JUST IN: US inflation jumped to 4.2% (y/y) in May —>the highest in 3 years and up from 2.4% in February before the war in Iran. Higher gas and energy prices drove 60% of the gain. Shelter and food (especially restaurants) also contributed. The monthly increase was 0.5%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was 2.9% —>highest since September

The graph is the story: Unemployment is stabilizing at a reasonably happy level.

Wowee!!!! Payrolls grew a massive +172k in May, well above expectations. April also revised up +64k to +179k, and March revised up +29k to +214k. The labor market appears to be motoring along after a slow 2025. Take that recession talk off the table.

May's 172,000 job gains were dominated by: Hospitality: 70,000 (mainly restaurants) Local gov't: 55,000 Healthcare: 35,000 But if you look at jobs gains in the past 3 months, you see a lot of industries hiring. (The exceptions are tech and finance)

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Honestly, it looks like the hiring recession is over. US average job gains in 2025: 10,000 a month US average job gains in 2026: 114,000 a month Job gains in the past 3 months: 188,000 Almost every industry is hiring again except tech and finance. There are a lot of encouraging signs for the labor market heading into summer. (Unfortunately, inflation is a lot worse).

Heather Long @byHeatherLong

2 months ago

JUST IN: Another strong jobs report. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May (way better than the 88k expected) and the revisions for April and March were 93k higher. Hospitality was the top job gainer (+70k) followed by local gov’t (+55k) Unemployment rate in May: 4.3% (same

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Keep an eye on this. 50% of items in the CPI inflation report are growing at 3% or higher right now. It's a telling metric... it underscores that this is more than just an "energy shock." The inflation problem is deeper and wider than that.

Mike Konczal @mtkonczal

3 months ago

If we're wondering why Waller turned a bit more worried, percent of items with 3% price growth (a metric he popularized for inflation falling in 2023-2024) has leveled off at a higher rate, much higher than 2023-2024. /2

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Literacy skills are dropping in wealthy developed countries, including the United States, according to data from The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development. Andreas Schleicher, the OECD Director of Education and Skills, tells Leigh Kiniry that the best thing parents can do for children to improve overall development is read to them, and that reading books over 100 pages is linked to greater digital literacy, including the ability to separate fact from fiction.

After years of debate about higher education's value, a study of nearly 1 million undergraduates shows that college pays off financially for most students. But the report found that the benefits depend on varying factors, including the degree and major: wapo.st/4nwMAe4

Breaking News: Cuba’s oil reserves have run dry, its government said, potentially plunging the country into more debilitating blackouts. nyti.ms/490P5iY