PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

Analytical & graphical insights for GE24. Tracking bookmakers odds, seat predictions, news, polling and more! Ireland Joined November 2024

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

First draft projection (subject to exit poll revision). Let me know your thoughts #GE24 FF - 43 FG - 37 SF - 37 Lab 9, SD 5, PBP 6, G 4, II 5, Indo & Oth 28

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

5) At 80 the path to a return in Gov is likely Labour who will be in or around 8 seats or alternatively and perhaps less stable Independent Ireland with a combo of centre minded Indos #GE24

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3) The last election had FF/FG on 73 seats. They will gain a min 5 of the 14 new seats on a conservative basis therefore getting them to 78 seats. They are likely to gain a seat in Roscommon due to retirement of Denis Naughton and also Kildare South due to SF woes.

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

1) My Thoughts. Whilst we await an exit poll tonight the path to 88 based on latest campaign polling would suggest FF/FG are on a combined 40%, decrease from 43% in 2020 and continuation of current trend in decline for party support .

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

4) Bookies are certainly over estimating FF returns in Dublin. A good day for FF in Dublin may well be to hold the 7 seats they have and hold Stephen Donnelly in neighbouring Wicklow. Any gains would signify a very good day for FF.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham

2 years ago

This evening we'll have constituency-level vote shares from an MrP from polling over the past few weeks.

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

Excellent work and analysis by Keith Mills.

Keith Mills @KeithMillsD7

2 years ago

#GE24odds 1/5 Time for one last check at what the next Dáil would look like if the bookies constituency odds are correct. In Dublin there is one big story, the complete wipe-out of the Greens and one media hype, Gerard Hutch is now favourite to take a seat in Dublin Central. 🙄

6 4 18 7K 7

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Keith Mills @KeithMillsD7

2 years ago

6 4 18 7K 7

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Ireland Votes @Ireland_Votes

2 years ago

BREAKING: Mick Wallace is to contest the General Election in Wexford.

23 17 164 36K 9

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

Looking like 2 Indo's, a certain FG seat and by no means are FF & SF guaranteed anything #GE24 Galway West

Keith Mills @KeithMillsD7

2 years ago

6 4 18 7K 7

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

2/ Full breakdown by constituency available here: Note: %'s in excess of 100% are parties in with chance of 2/3 seats

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

1/ Odds now published for 29 of the 43 #GE2024 constituencies (115 of the 174 seats). FF currently forecast to edge FG to largest party with seat gains coming at the expense of Greens & SF. 37 of theseats are "Too Close to Call" @AdrianKavanagh @gavreilly @irishelectproj

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

2/2)Projection is for a gain in DBS. Work to do for a gain in either Dun Laoghaire or Wicklow (a 54% and 27% chance respectively). However there is also a 46% chance of a loss in Dublin Rathdown leaving them with a current projected gain of 1.3. Bad for Greens losing 2 of 4

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

1/2) If the 'Harris Hop' is to materialise then a key area for Fine Gael is the South Dublin to Wicklow strip - FG received 30% of the public vote here in 2020 (21% nationally). They currently hold just 4 seats, with the coalition holding 11 of the 16 in total #GE2024 #GE24

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

🚨 Galway West 🚨 Grealish & Catherine Connolly (@catherinegalway) well positioned to be returned as Independents Should be 1 FG🔵 & 1 FF 🟢 with @grainne_seoige most likely FG chase 2nd here against @Farrell_Mairead for final seat @declanvarley @gbayfm @thecontel #GE2024

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

🚨Cork South Central 🚨 Laura Harmon (Lab) @Harmonica26 currently favoured for 5th and final seat over Finn (Indo) FF 2🟢🟢 FG 1🔵 SF 1 🟢 #GE2024 #GE24 @echolivecork @EoinBearla @corkindo

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

🚨Cork South West🚨 Of existing 3 TD's Christy O'Sullivan is in most danger. Collins(Indo Irl): Safe FG (Combined 76%) and Holly Cairns (73%) most likely to take remaining 2. To close to call currently but FF in trouble. #CorkSouthWest #GE2024 #GE24 @SouthernStarIRL @C103Cork

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PathTo88 - #GE2024 @PathTo88

2 years ago

Odds now available on 10 constituencies accounting for over 1/4 of all Dail seats - predominantly Dublin & urban based. Indos, FF & FG projected to gain at expense of Greens. Will update regularly @gavreilly @AdrianKavanagh @irishelectproj @BarryLenihan