Taeyoung Doh @PeterDOHT
Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank oc Kansas City, views are my own. sites.google.com/view/dohtyoung Joined April 2023-
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Excited to FINALLY release toughest+most rewarding paper I've worked on... ….we attack a 150 year old Walras question that's gone unanswered, not for lack of trying (Hicks, Samuelson, Arrow; our chances?😱)... Q: Is the market equilibrium stable or unstable?¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 🧵
Personal update: I've joined OpenAI while on leave from Wharton. After a decade away, glad to be back in the Bay Area and train AI models here! One more thing, I've been promoted to full professor, a decade-long journey made possible by many, especially my students.
@JesusFerna7026 You could add monetary theory part to Aglietta with Andre Orlean. Not directly related to Marxian tradition but their most relevant area right now, esp. related to the mimetic desire theory of Rene Girard promoted by Peter Thiel
Should monetary policymakers take inflation persistence as a given input to their decisions? The answer is no. In this economic bulletin of the Kansas City Fed with Stephen Vasiljevic,we show why that is the case. kansascityfed.org/Root/documents…
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements" by Taeyoung Doh, Dongho Song, and Shu-Kuei Yang. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
As predicted...
New Fed research shows tariffs may be quietly costing the U.S. thousands of jobs every month — with slower hiring and a weaker labor market to show for it. Taxes on trade are still taxes…and at the end of the day that impacts the economy. Businesses are trying to hold back on
@JesusFerna7026 I remember that Duncan Foley wrote a critical review on this. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.… unfortunately behind the paywall
I am delighted to share my new working paper coauthored with Hie Joo Ahn, Thomas R. Cook, Elias Kastritis , and Jesse Wedewer “Text Sentiment about Monetary Policy”
A Harvard student told me something I can't stop thinking about. When they go to the library, every single screen has ChatGPT open. Homework that used to take hours now takes minutes. But then they talk to alums who say entry-level roles are basically gone. The jobs they planned their entire college trajectory around don't exist anymore. AI made homework easier but made proving you deserve a job exponentially harder.
@jasonfurman Yes. Their estimate is the aggregation of uni-variate forecasts more or less while January’s imports can show up in Feb/Mar consumption or inventories. The large-scale VAR model that I run has 1.6 percent GDP growth as of Mar 4.
A new winner for the most wrong AI oped of all time: Lina Khan in NYT. Arg: US behind in AI because big tech firms too powerful. Crazy to say this when 1) Google invents transformers b/c size allows large R&D, 2) yet Google isn't leader and other small firms grow using this idea.
Applied microeconomists are switching career into trade econonomists.
🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: TRUMP: 25% TARIFFS ON CANADA AND MEXICO.
Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations: Policy Implications - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City kansascityfed.org/research/resea…
According to the Fed itself, the current proxy Fed funds rate is ~7%. In other words, it would take 3 more 50 basis points rate hikes to hit this proxy rate. What is the proxy Fed funds rate? It's the Fed funds rate that would typically be associated with current market conditions. Even in 2008, the proxy Fed funds rate did not top 6% and now we are above 7%. Markets continue to suggest that higher for longer is the new normal for interest rates. Inflation is still a major issue.
Very much surprised that my latest research blog "Transformer Blueprint" has reached 20K views! This is way beyond my expectations!! Here is the blog if you have not seen it: deeprevision.github.io/posts/001-tran….
Machine Learning models do not predict the future. They just find patterns in the past.
📣 Economic Bulletin: After Silicon Valley Bank failed, consumer spending declined in California counties more exposed to the failure but remained resilient at the state level. bit.ly/44GBdVV #EconTwitter
Sunday komolafe @komolafe_s55074
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