PolycarpFX Market Research @PolycarpFX
Macro & Technical Markets : High-conviction analysis, scenario planning, edge through data + positioning. Not investment advice. polycarpfx.com Salt Lake City, UT Joined May 2022-
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Wild
It's impressive how quickly things change in the span of just a couple of weeks
$NDX $QQQ July specifically is often a weaker window in this cycle for Tech.
We've said it on repeat: 2026 isn't an ordinary midterm year. This is a second presidential midterm year where S&P 500 is far stronger than typical mid term years. July has been the softest month with a weaker Q3 but almost 10%+ gains piling up in Q4. $SPX $SPY
$MELI declining 200D remains an issue
$CRM pretty incredible if this analog ends up holding true
$GLD Gold almost to that gap fill level
Today, The Setup Factory passed 5,000 subscribers. When I started TSF just over a year ago, I simply wanted to build the trading resource I wished had existed when I began my own journey. Today, TSF has grown into three parts: • The TSF Substack — market analysis, educational content, and high-quality swing trade ideas. • TSF Analytics — a platform built to identify emerging leadership, relative strength, and institutional rotation. • The TSF Discord — a community of traders sharing ideas, discussing markets, and improving together. None of this would exist without all of you who read, subscribed, shared my work, and trusted me enough to be part of the journey. I’m incredibly grateful. And I will continue repay you the only way I know, by providing value and quality week in and week out. And to continue develop TSF - Analytics into the only platform you will ever need. Thank you, Jonas
Qwen3.8 is launching and going open-weight soon!🌐 With a massive 2.4T parameters, this model is continuously evolving. We believe it’s one of the most powerful model available today, compatible to leading frontier AI models , second only to Fable 5. You don't have to wait to test it. Just now, the Qwen3.8-Max-Preview made its debut on Alibaba’s Token Plan, Qoder, and QoderWork. Be among the very first to try it out. Can't wait to hear what you build. Stay tuned! 🚀 Token Plan international：qwencloud.com/pricing/token-… China：platform.qianwenai.com/pricing/token-…
The banking sector $XLF seems to be just chilling.
US tech momentum, as represented by the Invesco Dorsey Wright Technology Momentum ETF (PTF), has just seen its second-fastest drawdown to −27.5% in history. Only COVID was faster.
You’re not alone.
Why have semiconductors been selling off? One issue is that earnings growth may be peaking, according to Apollo.
Introducing Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence 🔹 2.8 Trillion Parameters, 1 Million Context, Native Multimodal 🔹 Kimi Delta Attention enables up to 6.3x faster decoding in million-token contexts 🔹 Attention Residuals deliver ~25% higher training efficiency at <2% additional cost 🔹 Built for long-horizon agentic coding and self-evolving workflows Kimi K3 is now live on on Kimi.com, Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API. Open Weights by July 27, 2026. 🔗 API: platform.kimi.ai 🔗 Tech blog: kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3
This is essentially the only chart you need right now. Growth and high beta getting sold and value getting bid. That’s a regime change, and that can be healthy rotation, or it can be a place for smart money to temporarily park cash. Rotation can be normal and healthy, however the unnatural moves we are seeing in the semis, that’s a significant change in the regime to pay attention to. Because semis lead this bull market and thrust up, when they start showing real cracks like now, that is a cue to really step on the breaks. If growth can’t bid eventually everything will fall, because every secular bull is lead by growth stocks. Rotation can be a temporary pause for growth, but bid must return. $SMH
JUST IN: Intuitive Surgical $ISRG topped Q2 expectations, reporting EPS of $2.80 on $2.89B in revenue. The robotic surgery leader also reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, including double-digit da Vinci procedure growth.
INTUITIVE SURGICAL $ISRG EARNINGS ARE OUT! 🟢 EPS: $2.80 | Est. $2.50 🟢 REV: $2.89B | Est. $2.83B IMPLIED MOVE TOMORROW: ±6.53%!!
*S. KOREA FIN MIN TO HOLD MEETING ON MARKETS LATER THURSDAY kospi must be down
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