Mario Cerrato @ProfCerrato
Prof of Finance, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, UK. Research Interests in financial markets & derivatives, financial intermediation. mariocerrato.com Glasgow, Scotland Joined June 2024-
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mariocerrato.com/policy-papers : New Policy Note. Much of the current policy debate on Treasury and gilt market resilience focuses on dealer balance-sheet constraints, central clearing and market structure reforms.
This policy note argues that dealer incentives deserve equal attention. Even when regulatory constraints are not binding, funding costs, shareholder incentives and internal capital allocation may discourage dealers from deploying balance sheet to low-margin sovereign securities.
I would agree on this analysis which is entirely supported by the Modigliani Miller propositions. But there are capital structure frictions which create side effects carrying significant costs.
Higher bank capital requirements haven't put American banks at a competitive disadvantage. If anything, the opposite is true, says @tom_hoenig. open.substack.com/pub/finregrag/…
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… : Revised draft. The FX literature has largely viewed trading volumes as reflecting information or demand. We show that whether fx volume is informative depends critically on market making capacity! This was not the case before 2008.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=i73oKS… my conversation with Nathanael Benjamin (BoE FPC member) and Duc Duy Nguyen ( Durham Business School): does bank capital still matter? Rethinking regulations for growth and stability
mariocerrato.com/_files/ugd/df1… I completely agree with David on this. This is my reply to a similar FED proposal in 2025. Exposure has increased across dealers ( also in repo), but in other markets too.
When capital and balance-sheet capacity are scarce, banks naturally move towards activities that generate higher returns per unit of capital. Therefore, the real question is not just how much credit is being created, but where it is being allocated and why.
ft.com/content/8e5b5f… this FT article shows that SME lending has fallen sharply in the UK, while property-backed lending has grown. Why is that? Weak demand matters, and it’s part of the story, but so do incentives.
Using proprietary dealer bank data from two large dealers before and after 2008, our results suggest that the predictive power of FX volume rises only post 2008 and in periods of dealer stress and weak balance sheet conditions.
1/The BoE is redesigning it’s liquidity tools around a simple idea of meeting bank demand for reserves via central repo. That’s necessity but not sufficient. Why is demand for liquidity so high in the first place?
mariocerrato.com/policy-papers We propose intraday maturity tokenised gilt certificates. A simple rule-based UK sovereign instrument designed to deliver intraday sterling liquidity in both traditional and tokenised markets.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…. NEW PAPER Corporate credit lines are designed to provide liquidity precisely when firms need it most, but those drawdowns often occur when banks themselves face funding stress.
especially among more constrained lenders. The findings point to a balance-sheet channel through which monetary policy affects the pricing of contingent corporate credit.
Our new paper studies how intermediary balance-sheet capacity shapes the price of this liquidity insurance. Using syndicated loan data around the COVID-19 shock, we show that central bank asset purchases compressed the funding-risk premium embedded in revolving credit facilities
Lending has gone toward collateralised activities. This is difficult to explain by weak demand. Regulations, leverage constraints, internal ROE targets appear to shape not just the quantity of lending but it’s composition. The new prudential framework has created new incentives!
The evidence in this FT article and also in the BoE December 2025 draft, suggest two things: while weak investment demand matters, incentives deciding how banks allocate capital is also crucial. Since 2008 UK banks became more resilient, yet lending has shifted away from SMEs
ft.com/content/db487a…. The debate on UK bank capital is becoming different than banks need more capital!
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