@plusEVbacker It’s seem crazy but it’s actually very doable and you can check yourself everything is verified on chain and can see who placed it and just how much.
Polymarket has done multi billions of volume on the World Cup
🏆 THE WORLD CUP STARTS TODAY! ⚽️
🔍 I've spent the last 72–128 hours scrolling through, copying & pasting all available boosts & specials across popular bookmakers.
📊 Ran them against:
• Betting exchanges
• Sharp bookmakers
• My own model
⚠️ Note: Not SOME selections contradict each other; aim is to identify which have a good chance of winning & are worth the punt.
📌 All selections are in the thread below, including a few with negative value but still worth considering! 🧵👇
The bookmakers are flooding the board with World Cup boosts to bait retail money ahead of kickoff, but they’ve accidentally left some massive mathematical errors wide open.
I just ran the true probabilities across the entire market of bookie specials. Most are mathematical traps designed to drain your bankroll, but there are a handful of glaring mispricings that we are locking in immediately.
Here is your +EV Boost breakdown, sorted by edge 👇🧵
💣 The Deep-Value Longshots (Massive +EV)
BetVictor: Spain To Win Tournament, England Eliminated Semi Final, Curaçao Not To Score A Goal
Odds: 111.00 | Edge: +121.88%
A +121% edge is a monumental structural failure by the bookies. Curaçao is trapped in a group with Germany and could easily get blanked across three games. The bracket perfectly supports a Spain win and an England SF exit.
BetVictor: England To Win Tournament, Scotland R16, Harry Kane 4+ Goals
Odds: 71.00 | Edge: +59.69%
📈 The High-Value Volume Plays (>20% Edge)
NetBet: England to score 2+ goals in each group stage match
Odds: 4.33 | +29.23%
At 4.33, the book is severely underestimating the ceiling of this England attack against lower-tier group opponents.
DaznBet: Harry Kane Tournament Top Goalscorer
Odds: 11.00 | Edge: +22.20%
We already know England has a great structural runway, and Kane takes the penalties. Getting 11.00 on a market where his true probability sits over 11% is excellent standalone value.
Ladbrokes: England to score under 10 goals & go out in the QF @ 9.00 (+20.89% Edge)
🎯 The Best of the Rest (Positive EV Accumulators)
Betgoodwin: England to reach the final | Odds: 5.00 (+18.20% Edge)
Ladbrokes: Belgium & Portugal both to reach the QF | Odds: 6.00 (+17.59% Edge)
Coral: France, Spain, England & Argentina all to reach QF | Odds: 11.00 (+13.52% Edge)
DaznBet: England to win the World Cup | Odds: 11.00 (+12.58% Edge)
🛑 (Negative EV)
❌ Starsports: Lamine Yamal top Spain goalscorer (Odds: 4.00 | Edge: -19.84%)
Retail loves the youngster, but he is a playmaker, not a pure #9. You are losing nearly 20% value taking this price.
❌ QuinnBet: Uzbekistan, Panama & Iraq all to finish bottom (Odds: 3.70 | Edge: -22.35%)
❌ BetVictor: 1000+ Corners In The Tournament (Odds: 2.75 | Edge: -15.63%)
❌ BoyleSports: England to lead at half time in all 3 group matches (Odds: 7.50 | Edge: -11.33%)
Stop letting the sportsbooks tell you what's a "good deal" and start listening to the math. Let's cash. 🧠💼 #WorldCup2026#SportsBetting
Posting a video with a feature from @PropprIO everyday till it goes viral.
Bet builders have never been easier!
Select odds range, number of legs and value selections are put together in seconds!
If you want to try it for FREE let me know 👋
(Must be following so I can dm)
Posting a video with a feature from @PropprIO everyday till it goes viral.
Automated alerts are the absolute dream if you’re a prop bettor.
No averages or hit rates around here. PURE probabilities
If you want to try it for FREE let me know 👋
(Must be following so I can dm)
I've found another bet I like from the BV group!
🔹 Chris Wood to outscore Viktor Gyokeres @ 4
💰0.25u
(BetVictor / TalksportBet / Parimatch / Betano) 📱
⚠️ No deadheat rules apply here as you can back the draw, it is a win or lose.
Both I and the model agree that Gyokeres is more likely to score more goals than Wood would. But at the price for Wood, I cannot disagree with taking it.
🇳🇿 Chris Wood is the main spearhead for the attack for New Zealand. Whilst they are projected to go out in the groups and not score as many goals as Sweden, it is very likely that the play will flow through Chris Wood, and of course, the added bonus of taking penalties too.
But this is the World Cup, it will always be full of surprises! Chris Wood getting two or three goals isn't impossible to rule out.
3 DAYS TILL THE WORLD CUP
365 currently have priced up 'Goalscorer Match Bets'
This is a Draw No Bet market!
I've ran the H2H's through my Poisson projection model for each market to see if there's any value.
🧵All 7 selections and what to back in the thread👇
Club legend plan is needed for that 🙏
However if you go to: t.me/PropprManagerB…
send /trial
type the code: Twitter72
it will give you access to the PlayerBot and TeamBot for free for the next 72 hours
Club legend plan is needed for that 🙏 but anyone reading this make sure you’re following and I’ll DM you a code so try the bot for free for the next 72 hours (must be a new user)
Posting a video with a feature from @PropprIO everyday till it goes viral.
Automated alerts are the absolute dream if you’re a prop bettor.
No averages or hit rates around here. PURE probabilities
If you want to try it for FREE let me know 👋
(Must be following so I can dm)
3 DAYS TILL THE WORLD CUP
365 currently have priced up 'Goalscorer Match Bets'
This is a Draw No Bet market!
I've ran the H2H's through my Poisson projection model for each market to see if there's any value.
🧵All 7 selections and what to back in the thread👇
Using the /Matchup command in @PropprIO Playerbot it fancies Musiala to have more succ. dribbles than Pulisic at a whopping 59.8% Chance.
This is a market we can bet on @trylimitless
Musiala to record more successful dribbles than Pulisic @ 52.3c
limitless.exchange/markets/friend…
👤 Jamal Musiala (Germany) to have more succ. dribbles than
👤 Christian Pulisic (USA)
└─🖥 Model Odds: 1.67 (59.8% Chance)
👤 Christian Pulisic (USA) to have more succ. dribbles than
👤 Jamal Musiala (Germany)
└─🖥 Model Odds: 3.99 (25.1% Chance)
📊 Jamal Musiala (Germany) vs USA
✅ Succ. Dribbles - 2.17
✓ = Started
0✓, 2✓, 2✓, 3✓, 1✓, 5✓
| 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ |
| 88.5% | 63.7% | 36.8% | 17.4% | 6.9% |
| 1.13 | 1.57 | 2.71 | 5.74 | 14.50 |
📊 Christian Pulisic (USA) vs Germany
✅ Succ. Dribbles - 1.30
✓ = Started
1, 1, 1✓, 1, 0, 4✓, 1✓, 2✓, 0✓, 2✓
| 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ |
| 72.7% | 37.3% | 14.3% | 4.3% |
| 1.37 | 2.68 | 7.00 | 23.20 |
Now, of course, with friendlies, we are expecting some kind of rotation. Pulisic only played 45 minutes in USA's win versus Senegal, where Musiala played the full 90 minutes in their win against Finland in their recent friendly.
Both teams do have looked like to have lined up with their strongest possible teams. So I am expecting both players to get a decent amount of minutes and we can just hope that the data serves us right and Musiala can weave his way to a winner for us.
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