Real Thoughts @PureMount11

Realism. Liberalism. Futurism. Power of the Argument. ⚠️ Probably Provocative. ⚠️ Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland Joined February 2020

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

3 months ago

@Schuldensuehner So it’s probably a quite profitable business for the coming years to build und operate battery parks!?

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Okay

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@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape I think it’s strong but overstated and their economy has huge structural problems (low consumption, overproduction, etc). They are trying to export their way out of their problems may not want to add oil constraints to their problems… which wars did they win in the past?

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Why are you so sure? You seem to deny any risks and costs that China would be facing… I think that their economic and strategic capabilities are well overstated…

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Yes, just in case that China wants to calculate the risks to take any military actions, they have to take into account the cost for the US and for themselves.. that’s game theory

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Yes, price will be problematic for the economy, but not for US forces. US has full legal authority to force all domestic oil production to stay in the US. The primary legal tool is the Defense Production Act (DPA) of 1950. China faces other problems, they are running dry…

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape But is the pacific route big enough to keep China's economy running? I doubt that… it cannot physically replace Baltic and Black Sea supply. the pacific ports are maxed out right now just as the land pipelines…

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Yes, who knows… could even be done faster than 10 years…

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape reuters.com/business/energ…

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Probably just in time deliveries will end if it comes to that. And don’t bet against US economy to adapt to that… probably this will be the final push to get industry production back to the US? Isn’t that what they want?

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Don’t overestimate effects of electrification. China’s oil demand continued to grow, despite EV push. China's reserves last only ~60 days for logistics sectors. You won’t get rare earth from the ground without heavy diesel fueled machines and ships won’t swim and jets won’t fly…

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape Just look up some analysts: China currently holds an estimated 1.3bn barrels of crude in onshore storage, equivalent to around four months of seaborne imports at the 2025 average rate” the 2bn is outdated… vortexa.com/insights/china…

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4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape First, I assume they won’t invade Tawain due to oil constraints (that’s the opposite). Second, sounds plausible, but still they would have oil constraints and the US doesn’t… so it looks like China has a strategic disadvantage. That’s just logic.

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4 months ago

Let's see how long the 2nd China shock lasts... China depends more on oil from the Middle East to make cheap products than people think... oil provides ~ 20% of China's total primary energy, including fuel for almost all heavy logistics and raw materials needed for manufacturing.

Visual Capitalist @VisualCap

4 months ago

Flashback Favorite 🔙 Visualizing China’s Crude Oil Imports by Country 🚢 From the Archive: visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-o…

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@MichaelAArouet Let’s see if this holds up going forward … China depends more on oil from the Middle East to make cheap products than people think… oil provides ~20% of China's total primary energy, including fuel for almost all heavy logistics and raw materials needed for manufacturing.

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4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape By the way Russia’s shadow fleet collapsed 40% of its capacity due to Ukraine drone attacks this year… try to invade Taiwan with ships and tanks if you have oil constraints… just with solar panels and some biomass?

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Real Thoughts @PureMount11

4 months ago

@Ashesof_Pompeii @ProfessorPape China depends more on Iranian oil then many people think, economically and militarily… they have great reserves, but in a hot conflict they may run dry quite fast…