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PERFECT BOUNCE BACK SPOT
MLB POTD #2 | (7/11) ⚾️
Christopher Sanchez "O" 6.5 K's (-127) | @PlayProphetX#RingTheBell
Sanchez was due for regression according to analytics, and hasn't performed well the last 5 games but this is a perfect spot for a bounce back as we just saw
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PERFECT BOUNCE BACK SPOT
MLB POTD #2 | (7/11) ⚾️
Christopher Sanchez "O" 6.5 K's (-127) | @PlayProphetX#RingTheBell
Sanchez was due for regression according to analytics, and hasn't performed well the last 5 games but this is a perfect spot for a bounce back as we just saw Aaron Nola go for 8 K's last night.
Suprisingly Detroit ranks 21st in the MLB in strikeouts per game averaging 8.69. Now we get to back Sanchez who has elite strikeout capabilities vs a team whose best hitters are LHB whom Sanchez can keep silent during games.
The recent form has been shaky:
• Cleared in 5 of his last 10 starts
• Averaging 7.0 Ks over his last 10
The workload profile is the best in the game:
• 100th percentile strikeouts per game (7.2)
• 100th percentile innings pitched (6.1)
• 100th percentile outs recorded (19.0)
• 100th percentile batters faced (26.1)
His underlying metrics show the strikeout upside:
• 89th percentile BB rate allowed (4.8%)
• 73rd percentile K rate (27.6%)
• 99th percentile Chase rate (38.4%)
• 89th percentile SwStr rate (15.2%)
• 99th percentile xwOBA (.279)
Key K Threats vs LHP:
• Jake Rogers — 37.5% K rate
• Ben Malgeri — 33.3% K rate
• Spencer Torkelson — 28.6% K rate
• Riley Greene — 28.3% K rate
• Hao-Yu Lee — 24.6% K rate
• Dillon Dingler — 22.6% K rate
Supporting Swing-and-Miss:
• Jake Rogers — 44.8% Whiff rate, 37.9% Chase rate
• Riley Greene — 31.2% Whiff rate, 22.1% Chase rate
• Ben Malgeri — 28.6% Whiff rate, 32.3% Chase rate
• Spencer Torkelson — 27.2% Whiff rate, 21.1% Chase rate
• Hao-Yu Lee — 26.2% Whiff rate, 25.8% Chase rate
Sanchez's slider and changeup are going to be important to make Detroit batters chase/whiff the ball
What stands out most about this play is Sanchez's combination of elite workload and strikeout ability. He ranks in the 100th percentile in strikeouts, innings pitched, outs recorded, and batters faced per game, giving him plenty of opportunities to accumulate punchouts. His elite 38.4% chase rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate should play well against a Detroit lineup with multiple hitters carrying strikeout rates of 25% versus LHP.
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HE HAS BEEN ON FIRE LATELY 🔥
MLB POTD #1 | (7/11) ⚾️
Joe Ryan "O" 7.5 K's (-112) | @Pinnacle#MNTwins
I have recently found myself loving backing these Twins pitchers as they suck everything they can out of their starters before moving on to the bullpen.
Joe Ryan has an amazing matchup vs the Angels who strikeout at a 24.8% clip and strikeout the 2nd most in the MLB at 29th with 9.47 a game.
The recent form has been solid:
• Cleared in 6 of his last 10 starts
• Averaging 7.7 Ks over his last 10
• 11 K's last time he faced the Angels
The workload remains elite for this line:
• 98th percentile strikeouts per game (6.4)
• 94th percentile innings pitched (5.1)
• 94th percentile outs recorded (16.4)
• 91st percentile batters faced (22.3)
His underlying metrics continue backing the strikeout numbers:
• 80th percentile BA allowed (.219)
• 79th percentile K rate (28.6%)
• 81st percentile Chase rate (32.3%)
• 84th percentile K/9 (10.52)
Key K Threats vs RHP:
• Zach Neto — 33.1% K rate
• Jorge Soler — 32.6% K rate
• Orlando Peraza — 27.6% K rate
• Josh Lowe — 26.9% K rate
• Logan O'Hoppe — 25.6% K rate
• Mike Trout — 24.2% K rate
Supporting Swing-and-Miss:
• Jorge Soler — 33.9% Whiff rate, 26.9% Chase rate
• Zach Neto — 31.1% Whiff rate, 37.3% Chase rate
• Logan O'Hoppe — 26.3% Whiff rate, 35.3% Chase rate
• Orlando Peraza — 26.3% Whiff rate, 37.9% Chase rate
• Josh Lowe — 25.2% Whiff rate, 37.7% Chase rate
His pitch edge should play well in this matchup:
His sweeper and split finger are going to be two pitches that he's going to need to use the most when deviating from the fastball where he has a lower put away rate at 20.2%.
What stands out most is Ryan's workload and K's generated while pitching deep in games. He ranks in the 98th percentile in strikeouts per game while carrying a 10.52 K/9 and facing over 22 batters per start. The Angels feature multiple hitters striking out above 25% against right-handed pitching, giving Ryan plenty of opportunities to go for 8+ K's.
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Max Holloway by KO/TKO vs Connor McGregor (-120)
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Benoit Saint Denis ML vs Paddy Pimblett (-135)
@CaesarsPalace
Alessandro Costa + Luke Riley ML (+101)
@Novig
Tracy Cortez ML vs Wang Cong (+106)
@PlayProphetX
Huge shoutout to @TheOddsGap saved me time trying to look for the best lines on every book. Highly recommend checking them out‼️
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FADE OF THE DAY
MLB POTD #1 | (7/10) ⚾️
Aaron Nola "O" 2.5 ER (+108) | @PlayProphetX#RingTheBell
Collab w/ @DDOGGSTACKS 📲
Aaron Nola has struggled all season, posting a 5.87 ERA through 18 starts while allowing 60 earned runs across 92 innings. That’s an average of 3.3 earned runs per outing, and he’s consistently put himself in trouble by allowing traffic on the bases and giving up hard contact.
He’s gone over this number in 12 of his 18 starts, including several outings where he surrendered three, four, or more earned runs. At this point, it’s been a season long trend rather than a few bad starts.
The long ball has been a major issue. His knuckle curve (34% usage), four-seam fastball (23.6%), and sinker have each been tagged for six home runs, and both fastballs have produced elevated slugging percentages and wOBA against. When hitters get pitches in the zone, they’ve done damage.
Detroit has the type of lineup that can take advantage. Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Kerry Carpenter, and Kevin McGonigle give the Tigers a balanced mix of power, contact, and patience at the plate. They’ve shown they’re capable of capitalizing on mistakes, especially against pitchers who struggle to keep the ball in the yard.
Nola is averaging around 5 innings and more than 22 batters faced per start, giving Detroit plenty of opportunities to get to him before the bullpen takes over. His recent form hasn’t offered much optimism either, carrying a 6.39 ERA over his last 15 starts.
With Nola continuing to battle command issues, an ongoing home run problem, and a Detroit lineup that matches up well against his pitch mix, I like the Tigers to score at least 3 runs to cash this for us.
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