research2discovery @R2Discovery

@ClarkSquareCap Gaming & defense

@BlackScholesMan Great write-up. I missed this. Thank you🥰

In my view, these are the most obvious European defense acquisition target companies after Exail $EXA with $SAF. These are genuinely strategic and could realistically be acquired by prime contractors. Some are critical for Europe, others are even globally important, including for the US. 💥 Avio $AVIO leader in European Vega and Ariane launch systems, as well as defense propulsion with US fab investment 💥 Ceotronics $CEK & Invisio $IVSO – mission-critical tactical communications. Without secure communications, nothing else works. 💥 Steyr Motors $4X0– specialized military engines powering a wide range of defense vehicles. 💥 Theon $THEON & Exosens $EXENS – Europe's leaders in night vision and military optics. 💥 Lumibird $LBIRD – defense photonics, laser rangefinders and targeting systems for air defense, fighter jets and counter-drone 💥 4C Group $4C – a hidden defense software niche leader providing NATO certified AI embedded training, readiness and military exercise platform. These aren't just average defense companies. They own technologies that are becoming increasingly strategic as Europe rebuilds its defense industrial base and rearms.

Mike @BlackScholesMan

3 days ago

Now or never on primes acquiring defense tech. Safran buying exail could be kicking off a new wave

3 2 32 10K 4

@BlackScholesMan When do you think it can be closed? That's a good catalyst there leaving them with cash + photonics and defense.

@BlackScholesMan Agree. Recently they suprised us with weak medical performance. That justify it even more

@financialjuice Some other target ideas for EU primes: x.com/i/status/20705…

research2discovery @R2Discovery

2 days ago

In my view, these are the most obvious European defense acquisition target companies after Exail $EXA with $SAF. These are genuinely strategic and could realistically be acquired by prime contractors. Some are critical for Europe, others are even globally important, including for

1 2 10 3K 9

@theShedsLars Like with $EXA - $SAF announced today European primes should acquire public dual use companies for these ridicolous valuations

It's disappointing, considering the amount of work that went into it and the share price but unfortunately Kyle opinion explains way better $CEK stock behaviour than all my posts about fundamentals, new European order in June, valuation or upside in comparison to Savox IPO...

Kyle Salvitti @KyleSalvitti

3 days ago

@TurboToni4 @R2Discovery The suspicion is that Finserve, a large fund has been liquidating 500k+ shares through the exchange, crushing stock price. Why are they (potentially) selling? Small position in their fund (sub 1%), mainly invest in large caps, and could be forced after dipping sub €100mm in mcap

1 0 4 2K 1

@theShedsLars Yeah indeed, $RHM or $HAG show terrible investor sentiment to German defense names

@theShedsLars Average 30 day liquidity exceeds €500k, on best days €1m-€2m but that's thanks to fund dump support now.

Yeah it's not GTA VI and $TTWO (Remedy has only €200m marketcap!) but in my view the @GamalyticSite data showing nearly 1 million Control Resonant wishlists and an estimated $18.5m in first-month sales is surprisingly encouraging for $Remedy.HE at this stage with 24th September launch day (many campaign weeks and events to go).

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

research2discovery @R2Discovery

4 days ago

Seeing strong data from $REMEDY.HE Control Resonant, that I believe are not in the price or expectations. Hands-on reviews I was able to find are still 100% positive, but commercially more imporant data for Remedy stock & Control Resonant P&L: 💥advanced to #31 Steam Wishlist,

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

0 0 7 2K 3

I don't agree with that screening at all. Unless someone has no understanding of the sector they're looking at. Even Rheinmetall has significant seasonality in order intake and cash flow, let alone a small company like $CEK, where most of the business still comes from the German army and is now diversifying into other European armed forces and police customers.

@theShedsLars 1st June news • Order backlog approx. €78.2 million (+30.3%) • Order intake approx. €74.6 million (+66.2%) Its that +€12.5m from 16th June now.

@theShedsLars You're right, the next set of results till 2027/2028 with such order intake and new deal from June is likely to be good. At this point, though, what's even more important is that the overhang appears to be gone when that is being published.

@KyleSalvitti @NaniMani98 @TurboToni4 It certainly looks that way. Otherwise they could have spread the selling out over a longer period and probably achieved much better average price.

Leaving aside the Savox $SAVOX comparison which already implies Ceotronics $CEK is undervalued by roughly 300% just look at what's happened in the short term. Despite reporting +65% YoY order intake on June 1 (close to €90m today, in fact now higher growth) and announcing a new European military customer on June 16, the stock is still 15% below where it traded before those announcements. That leaves it valued at just 4.8x EV/EBITDA, 9x P/E, and, remarkably, around an 18% free cash flow yield based on last year's results 🤯. The share overhang has done an impressive job of completely overwhelming the fundamentals. At this point, it's much easier for me to understand why so many retail investors prefer now ETFs or buying stocks themselves instead of investing through institutions.

research2discovery @R2Discovery

4 days ago

"Excluding the options, $CEK's backlog is ~250% of Savox $SAVOX's backlog." In comparison to Savox market cap is now ~275% Ceotronics. What is that Mr. Market?

0 0 8 3K 2

I can't really estimate it, but trading volumes were exceptionally high in June on good news. There was one day with more than 200k shares traded and two more days with over 100k shares traded. Assuming overhang accounted for a large portion of that volume, there's probably only a fraction of full position left for 2nd half of June.

Ceotronics has actually executed even better than I expected. In June, they reported order intake up 65% Y/Y, then announced a contract with a new European military customer. SAVOX IPOed yesterday 50% higher than I expected. Yet $CEK stock is down 20% from what were already very low valuation multiples before.

@TurboToni4 Large fund is selling in June insignificant position for them. Reasons I do not know. The most common speculation I hear is that it was triggered by the stock falling below the $100m market cap threshold and not reversing back.

LOL Exail $EXA in talks to sell to Safran $SAF at €128.5 share. Thinking about it, I'm not really surprised by the bid. They took advantage of a sharp valuation reset in a fundamentally solid business to below 20x EV/EBIT. What I didn't expect was that the founding family would actually be willing to sell. Still, there are quite a few companies like this one in the market at bottom valuation range. Businesses that have gone through major corrections despite owning strategically important European defense technologies and backlogs that are critical to Europe's security and sovereignty...