RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting
RFI enhances RAND's ability to understand complex global challenges through advanced forecasting capabilities. randforecastinginitiative.org Online Joined March 2020-
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Forecast with us on governance & stability in #Africa and African diaspora countries to inform RAND analysts and U.S. policymakers. Learn more and contribute to this research by forecasting on our latest questions >> randforecastinginitiative.org/feature/rfi-af… #AfricanSecurity #RANDForecasting
Then, see perspectives from our crowd and share your own forecast >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378…
Since @RANDCorporation's article was published, INFER's crowd forecast has nearly doubled, now saying there's a 43% chance that #Israel will declare war on #Hezbollah in the next year. Read RAND's article to learn how they’re using crowd forecasting >> rand.org/pubs/commentar…
Could Russia's rising #inflation rates (as reported @Reuters) impact Putin's leadership? INFER is forecasting whether #Putin will cease to be the President of #Russia by July 2025. Tell us what you think >> infer-pub.com/questions/1413…
Russia's central bank governor Nabiullina on rates, economy and banks reut.rs/3LKV27q
@INFERpub will challenge your brain, teach you about the world, and connect you with other curious people! This was my favorite question of this month: On 31 May 2025, will NVIDIA be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? infer-pub.com/questions/1414…
📱From smartphones to military systems, #semiconductors power our digital world. We're asking: What % of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas in 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1415
Pro forecaster @DippySkippy, works in high-value philanthropy investing in London, and shares why participating on INFER is important to him. See forecasting lessons from him and other top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…
📊 NEW snapshot reports on #Iran's agenda for #nuclear weapons and #proxies are now available for download. By 31 May, several crowd forecast signals pointed to Iran's regional influence remaining at status quo or slightly deescalating. See more >> infer-pub.com/archive
Amid #election legitimacy concerns and alleged human rights violations in #Venezuela, we are seeking forecasts on this critical question >> infer-pub.com/questions/1399…
Notable update from our mid-month forecast snapshot report: The INFER crowd is currently forecasting a 53% chance (+23% in just the last 3 weeks) that #Russia will attack #Kharkiv, #Ukraine before Jan 2025. Read more from our latest snapshot report >> infer-pub.com/archive
We just launched a new strategic topic to understand the future of Open Radio Access Network. An #OpenRAN ecosystem would allow companies like Verizon and AT&T to use vendor-neutral hardware and software, avoiding reliance on one provider. Read more >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/future…
We asked INFER Pro Forecaster and geopolitical consultant ScottEastman: What have you learned from working with top level forecasters both in your field and in the INFER Pro program? Hear from several top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson… #crowdforecasting
Our newly released #Russia-#Ukraine report spotlighted a notable forecast shift – our crowd now says there's a 21% chance that #Russia will invade #Moldova before April 2027. Read more from our forecasters on this issue and others >> infer-pub.com/archive
📊NEW snapshot reports on the #RussiaUkraineWar and #Iran's #nuclear and regional agenda are now available for download. These include a spotlight on the signal with a notable forecast shift over the past month. See our latest forecast reports >> infer-pub.com/archive
📈 In the past two weeks, INFER's forecast for #Israel declaring war on #Hezbollah in the next year has jumped to a 24% chance. What do you think? >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378
INFER currently predicts a 14% chance that #Israel will declare war on #Hezbollah in the next year. Our forecasters are citing... 🔹Israel's resource constraints 🔹Hezbollah's current focus on #Syria 🔹International pressure Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378
Critical #UkraineRussiaWar forecast questions just launched. Here's one: Will the U.S. #Congress pass a military aid package supporting #Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1391
Our March snapshot reports highlight crowd forecast trends related to #Iran's #nuclear progress and influence on proxies in the region. Read our latest release >> infer-pub.com/archive
Learn more about motivation and techniques from several of our top forecasters from last season >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…
"I want to impact policy decisions in areas that I think are critical to hopefully avoiding #war, ending wars more quickly, or improving people's lives." - Pro Forecaster @ ScottEastman, geopolitical consultant from the US now based in Romania, on why he forecasts with INFER
Nathan 🔎 @NathanpmYoung
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Jordan Schneider @jordanschneider
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Haydn Belfield @HaydnBelfield
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David Krueger 🦥 �... @DavidSKrueger
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Michael Story ⚓ @MWStory
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Cristian Celsi @CelsiCris26725
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M@tthews_D. @Matthews_Dias
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j h @hallj15
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DeSerter @Trhue1013197
30 Followers 783 Following Most people are other people. Their thoughts are someone else's opinions, their lives a mimicry, their passions a quotation 🤔
🇨🇦halogen @halogen1048576
5K Followers 7K Following there'll be trouble in the Taiwan Straits in the spring
Emanuele Bianchi @memebi
309 Followers 4K Following Lambrate’78. Milanista+MilBucks. SilValley&WCoast enthusiast. Read anything, like2drive&fly, aspirational decent runner/padelist& pickleballer. My opinions etc
Pauliina @enialaniiluap
1 Followers 60 Following I estimated that I have a better chance at saving humanity than finding my soulmate on Tinder. I’ll try the former first.
Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums
81 Followers 487 Following Into computer vision and crowd forecasting. PhD student and Good Judgment @superforecaster
Joseph Green Jr. @MsAnderson29473
36 Followers 86 Following 1 Park Plaza Irvine California 92614 United States (Adam Hughes & Michel Zia Shamim)
Jim @JRS1N
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franklin @wagonbandch
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HealoRX @HealorX
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AquaLith Environmenta... @Mitch1742182
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Always Smile @AlwaysSmil42557
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Laughing Jackal Analy... @TrashPandaIntel
3 Followers 325 Following Scavenging the World's Carcasses Geopolitics / Political Economy / Philosophy Views/opinions/predictions are my own and are possibly absolute trash
Christian Chung @cachung
424 Followers 6K Following Emerging Tech x NatSec | PhD candidate @PrincetonSPIA, Alum @GeorgetownSFS
The Supercycle @supercycleblog
985 Followers 86 Following The future of prediction market media. Created by @FlipPidot and @realTomBayes
Sammy Fries 🔸🌱 @SammyFries
338 Followers 503 Following Learning how I might be able to effectively help other animals - sharing along the way. Thoughts my own and not personal financial advice
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8 Followers 388 Following
Sam Bowman @sleepinyourhat
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Jordan Schneider @jordanschneider
58K Followers 4K Following Newsletter: https://t.co/j23uuLxE59 join 80k readers Podcast: https://t.co/npkVVJ9NWM YouTube: https://t.co/nxmWB5n54b
Robin Hanson @robinhanson
126K Followers 781 Following Let’s skip witty banter & talk deep Qs. Books: https://t.co/hpZgEm5DBI https://t.co/iFs9C3J2Ek Advisor @_futarchy @MetaDAOProject @butterygg
Jack Clark @jackclarkSF
147K Followers 5K Following @AnthropicAI, writer @ Import AI. Past: @openai, @business @theregister. Neural nets, distributed systems, weird futures.
Dustin Moskovitz @moskov
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CSET @CSETGeorgetown
13K Followers 450 Following The Center for Security and Emerging Technology within Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service Subscribe: https://t.co/FjSCGo19xj
Haydn Belfield @HaydnBelfield
7K Followers 2K Following Research Scientist (Frontier Planning) at @GoogleDeepMind. Research Affiliate @Cambridge_Uni @CSERCambridge & @LeverhulmeCFI. All views my own.
Ryan Fedasiuk @RyanFedasiuk
22K Followers 11K Following Fellow @AEI covering China, tech, and national power. Founder @DgtlEmb. Prof @GeorgetownCSS. Former @StateDept. 费瑞安.
Michael Story ⚓ @MWStory
10K Followers 3K Following Making Forecasting Useful at @swift_centre. I like big dogs, fast boats, and old stones 🇬🇧🇺🇲🇰🇪🇧🇪🇺🇲🇫🇷🇬🇧🇷🇺🇬🇧🇹🇼🇬🇧
Seán Ó hÉigeartaig... @S_OhEigeartaigh
8K Followers 2K Following Director of https://t.co/gCEDoKdKBT at Uni of Cambridge | Researching Big Risks, and impacts of AI & emerging tech. Opinions own. Epistemic status: in shambles
Lennart Heim @ohlennart
17K Followers 771 Following managing the flop, and the labor it yields | @foundationOAI | prev @RANDcorporation @GovAIOrg @EpochAIResearch
JM Aguilar-Antonio @travelerjm
1K Followers 381 Following Profesor - Investigador @FESAragonUNAM | Posdoc @cisanunam | #FulbrigtGR @Comexus | SNI @Secihti_Mx| Dr. RRII | Ciberseguridad, IA y ET.
Mau_Bastien @Mau_Bastien
3K Followers 5K Following Trabajo en temas de seguridad, justicia y tecnología 🇲🇽 👉🌎
Council on Foreign Re... @CFR_org
578K Followers 145 Following Foreign policy news and analysis. CFR takes no institutional positions on policy. Follows, RT ≠ endorsements. ✉️ Subscribe for more: https://t.co/ehd5lKYrLs
Heramb @Heramb1618
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Scott Alexander @slatestarcodex
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Ajeya Cotra @ajeya_cotra
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445 Followers 7 Following Thinking ahead to a future where AI decides everything
Guillermo Mendoza @gmendozabazan
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Henry Tolchard @henry_tolchard
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Trends in Biotechnolo... @TrendsinBiotech
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RAND @RANDCorporation
262K Followers 730 Following We arm leaders with the information they need to tackle the toughest policy problems. Nonprofit, nonpartisan. 📩 Get our newsletter: https://t.co/RGaF9SINlY
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William MacAskill @willmacaskill
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245 Followers 75 Following Supporting young bioscientists in keeping their work safe and secure via our FutureLearn MOOC "Biosecurity for the Next Generation" #NextGenBiosecurity
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Ars Technica @arstechnica
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Tom Nunlist @freefader
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Elaine Rich @Allmyalibis
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Micah Musser @mrmusser
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350K Followers 20K Following MIT's Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL). Media Inquiries: [email protected] Check out the latest CSAIL content ⬇️
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