RobinGains @RobinGains

@jimcramer @Jim_Banks get a grip!

Bezos is gonna run

@agnostoxxx True weekend warriors!

@zerohedge This is significant and worth breaking down carefully, because it moves several of @LukeGromen's arguments from theoretical to empirically observed.

@HayekAndKeynes How about for the top 10 X accounts

@nytimes @BillAckman retweet this!

Decoding Trump on Iran electrical infrastructure threats The strategical & tactical consequences and the motivation/s ———-expressed in neutral moral terms explicitly so the facts can land . The neutralization of Iran’s electrical infrastructure focuses on twelve nodes that support the nation's political, military, and industrial operations. The Damavand Combined Cycle Power Plant near Tehran stands as the primary target for the central region. It provides the base load for the capital’s ten million residents and the administrative heart of the government. Its removal triggers a total failure of high-altitude water pumping stations and urban transit systems. The Shahid Rajaee Power Plant in Qazvin acts as the secondary anchor for the northwest industrial corridor. It supplies the heavy manufacturing zones that produce automotive parts and defense components. In the northern Caspian region, the Neka (Shahid Salimi) Power Plant maintains grid frequency for the agricultural and logistical hubs bordering Russia. Its destruction isolates the northern provinces and halts the operation of strategic port facilities. To the southwest, the Ramin Power Plant in Ahvaz and the Abadan Power Plant provide the high-voltage energy required for oil extraction and refinery operations in Khuzestan. Disabling these plants shuts down domestic fuel production. Electric pumps and cooling systems are necessary for crude processing. The southern coastal theater relies on the Bushehr Nuclear and Conventional complex and the Bandar Abbas Thermal Plant. These facilities are the sole energy providers for the desalination plants that supply potable water to the IRGC naval bases and the millions of civilians in the arid southern provinces. The neutralization of these coastal nodes creates an immediate humanitarian crisis. Water storage in these regions is limited to a 48-hour window. The Asaluyeh Power Plants, integrated into the South Pars gas complex, are already degraded. Their destruction halts the production of petrochemicals and fertilizers. These are essential for domestic food security and foreign exchange. Civilian defense capabilities collapse as the national grid fails. Modern Passive Defense (Sazman-e Padafand-e Gheyr-e Amel) protocols require active power for the subterranean bunkers and civil defense centers that coordinate emergency responses. Hospital systems face immediate failure as backup diesel generators exhaust localized fuel supplies within 72 hours. This is particularly certain given the disruption of the domestic refinery network. Telecommunications and internet connectivity vanish entirely. This prevents the state from managing the movement of the 3.2 million internally displaced persons fleeing urban centers for the rural north. Manufacturing for the defense sector experiences total paralysis. The assembly of solid-fuel missiles and drone components requires precise temperature control and high-energy industrial mixers. A grid collapse halts these production lines and prevents the testing of guidance systems. Heavy industries, including aluminum smelters and steel mills in the Persian Gulf Special Zone, suffer permanent equipment damage from sudden power loss. Molten materials solidify within the furnaces. It’s that thing I keep referring to if you’re a regular reader the idea that our infrastructure can be immediately bought back online in any country is one of our naive beliefs. This creates a multi-decade timeline for industrial reconstruction. The result is a transition from a centralized industrial state to a fragmented, localized survival economy. There is a humanitarian catastrophe lurking here that is hard to contemplate .

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

x.com/i/article/2033…

If Iran wins, it's the end of five eras. 1991-2026: the unipolar era 1974-2026: the petrodollar era 1945-2026: the postwar era 1776-2026: the union era 1492-2026: the Western era Specifically, the end of the petrodollar (1974) would also be the end of the unipolar moment (1991) and the postwar order (1945). It would mark the moment when Eurasian powers were once again dominant over Western powers (1492). Finally, a rapid crash in the dollar's purchasing power coupled with military defeat could well break apart the American union (1776). Few seem to viscerally understand just how dependent America is on money printing. But the end of the petrodollar is the end of Keynesianism as we know it. And if there's a sudden cost-of-living spike on top of pre-existing levels of political polarization, which are already near Civil War levels...we could see the scenarios that Dalio, the Fourth Turning, and Turchin have described.

@Rory_Johnston Relax Rory, he’s just lookin for a pardon. Can’t fault a guy for tryin.

JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

@TheIndexInsider Why did James Monroe nearly go broke

@interesting_aIl This is very easy to do.

@sciencegirl Color.

@ViralNewsNYC @ViralNewsNYC check at @Peter_Turchin’s work on the matter, his framework very clearly lays out the reasons why this is happening and has happened throughout history.

@CarpeNoctom This is a good thing for BTC if one believes the off loading of coins from the Prince Group has been the impetus for the sell off.

@jackbitcoin Send it!

@zerohedge Combo of 2 & 3, with short air pockets that look like 1 along the way.

@iamSauceGardner My first thought is you were scared of Mamdani. Good luck in Indy!