SPXVIX @SPXVIX

$SPX Expected Move Sep 08, 2026 SPX 7,696 | VIX 15.52 0DTE +/-28 pts (+/-0.36%) -> 7,668 - 7,724 Expected move well below 60-day avg (+/-40 pts) - unusually quiet session implied

Pre-Market Setup - Sep 08, 2026 Before the bell: the overnight tape, the vol regime you're walking into, and today's catalysts. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━ OVERNIGHT ES (S&P) -0.29% - implied open ~7,696 (-22 vs close), range 7,684–7,722 NQ (Nasdaq) -0.03% - implied open ~29,536, range 29,457–29,744 → ES -22 point gap with -0.29% futures decline signals modest morning headwind into cash open. VOL AT LAST CLOSE - VIX 14.5 · VVIX 84 · SKEW 152 · CONTANGO VRP +6.2 (VIX − RV20 8.3); vol closed richly priced - a seller's backdrop. → VIX at 14.5 and VRP +6.2 means vol traders are paying a premium 6.2 points above realized, leaving room for compression if equities stabilize. MACRO OVERNIGHT - 10Y +2bp · Dollar -0.2% · Crude +2.6% · Gold +0.4% · BTC -1.0% → Overnight real rates higher by 2.2bp on the 10Y while crude rallied 2.6 percent, creating mixed directional pull on risk appetite. GLOBAL - Asia: Nikkei -1.7% · Hang Seng -0.4% · Shanghai +0.2% Europe: DAX -0.2% · FTSE +0.2% · Euro Stoxx -0.0% → Asia closed mixed with Nikkei -1.7% and Shanghai +0.2%, while Europe held flat to slightly positive, offering no conviction into US cash open. HEADLINES • Santoli: One key tech ETF may signal whether this bull market can keep marching on (CNBC) • The Stock Market Has Ignored the Iran Conflict. Why That's About to Change. (Barrons) • Labor Day Musings; Range Rover Maker to Cut 4,000 Jobs (WSJ) ON DECK - CASY → CASY earnings alone lack the breadth to drive market-wide directional moves, leaving overnight macro and vol regime as the primary trading anchors. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THE SETUP: ES down 22 points with richly priced vol at +6.2 VRP against a mixed macro backdrop leaves the day dependent on cash market participation and whether the term contango holds into the session. Not a forecast. A pre-market read.

Catalysts: US PPI Thursday, CPI Friday, FOMC next week. Japan commentary still matters if USDJPY tries to bounce off the floor.

Rich sleeve is AUDUSD at 0.7217. Percentiles 95 / 95 / 98. That is the top of its own 1Y distribution. NZDUSD is the lagging commodity pair (0 on 1M). USDCHF is also rich on 6M and 1Y.

In the plane but determined to get this out before take off. FX ranks vs own history. 0 is cheap. 100 is rich. Dollar is soft vs the last month, not a 1Y extreme. Real sleeves: USDJPY and USDCNY at the floor, AUDUSD at the ceiling. USDCNY 0/0/0 (yeah that’s real, not a bad print). Last complete close 6.7108 is the lowest in the 1Y window.

@Gubloinvestor Having a car loan is a bad move to start with

Good morning! ☕️ Sitting in the airport lounge, about to hop on a short business trip, so this one’s coming from the gate and not the desk. Folks, you can’t buy the $VIX. That 15.68 on the screen is an index. What you actually trade is a futures contract that has to finish at that index on settlement day. Most mornings the curve slopes up. That’s contango. Spot 15.68 Sep future 16.40 Oct 18.20 May 21.10 The market is paying extra for vol that isn’t here yet. Spot jumps around. Longer-dated contracts sit richer, then roll down toward spot as expiry gets close. That 0.7-point gap between spot and Sep is the thing you actually own. Not the headline. Follow if you want why that slope quietly chews up the long-vol ETFs.

$VIX is the cash index. Right now it’s about 15.2. It’s a 30-day constant-maturity number built from the $SPX option strip. VX! is the front VIX future. Sep contract last around 16.3. That’s the market’s price of 30-day vol starting on that future’s expiration, not “spot.” VX! is supply and demand. Into expiration it converges toward $VIX. That’s why Tony watches VX! for the actual tape.

Continuing our morning educational tweets series. Let’s all agree on one thing today. $VIX does not attack $SPX. When the S&P sells off, people buy puts. Those puts sit in the VIX strip. Put prices go up, VIX goes up. When the S&P rips, those same puts get cheaper. VIX falls. That’s the whole relationship. The S&P (and the demand for protection on it) moves VIX. VIX is the scoreboard, not the player. Bookmark this and send it to anyone who still doesn’t understand what $VIX is.

@banquetsbetter My concern is the dying volume after Sep 3. From a premium-seller perspective, the cleaner edge is fading the edges of ~77–82. You selling the range now or waiting for the box test first?

Not every currency needs a rescue package. Aussie dollar futures (6A) are at 0.721, up 0.22% today and about 2.6% over three months. That June washout toward 0.69 is the low. The grind since then is the story. No $50B defense. No Treasury dump. Markets are still leaning toward another RBA hike this month. Yen, yuan, and Turkish lira are the intervention tape. AUD did the work the old-fashioned way. Nicely done Australia! 🇦🇺

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Turkish lira futures are near 48,800. That is roughly how many lira one dollar buys. Up about 800% since 2020. The line only goes one way. Turkey has already thrown more than $50B this year at the defense. Gold. T-bills. Foreign reserves. Earlier in the year it also dumped almost all of its US Treasuries. Holdings went from about $16B to pocket change. Japan sold Treasuries and the yen bounced. Turkey spent the reserves and the lira kept leaking. Inflation is still around 31%. Policy rate is 37%. Same toolkit. Completely different result.

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Different country, different tape. Offshore yuan (USDCNH) is around 6.71. Over five years the dollar is still up about 4% versus the yuan. The recent move is the opposite. The yuan just printed its strongest level since early 2023. Beijing is not cheering that. This morning the PBOC set the daily fix at 6.7795, about 700 pips weaker than the market expected. That is the central bank tapping the brakes. Japan sold Treasuries to buy a weak yen. China is doing the other trade. Banks have been lifting dollar deposit rates and parking those dollars in US Treasuries so fewer dollars get converted into yuan. Goal is simple: keep the currency from running too far, too fast. US markets are closed. Asia is not.

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@KobeissiLetter Know where the juicy vol is and benefit from it x.com/spxvix/status/…

SPXVIX @SPXVIX

2 days ago

Hey all! Reminder that markets are closed tomorrow but the vol curve is not on holiday. $SPX ATM IV jumps to 11.14% on Friday CPI, 11.04% on FOMC the 16th, then 11.67% into Friday OPEX (the 18th). Neighbors around those prints sit 9.8–10.0. $VIX is still 14.53 with VIX9D 11.97 /

0 0 3 983 0

@BullTradeFinder It’s good when they are expensive because you should be selling them 😉 sell high, buy low. When you understand this concept, your life will change.

Good morning! ☕️ Happy Labor Day! While US markets are closed, the yen is still working. Japanese yen futures (6J) are up about 3.7% over the past 3 months. That bid has a bill attached. Japan spent a record ¥15.4T buying yen through late August to stop the currency from sliding. Reserve data out this morning showed foreign securities holdings down $87.8B in August, close to the size of that intervention. Officials did not name the bonds. Markets still figure most of those reserves sit in US Treasuries. Plain English: to buy yen, Tokyo needs dollars. A lot of those dollars were parked in Treasuries. Sell the bonds, fund the yen defense.