Sharp Lies | Course Intelligence @Sharp_Lies

$69,001 on a 5% shot. That's the US Open for you. Rahm actually fits Shinnecock on the stats — strong approach profile, our model doesn't hate him here. The real question is whether the market has this field priced right at all. We don't think it does. A few names sitting 15-20 spots below where our model has them. Shinnecock will sort it out. 👀⛳

Our architect has been to Shinnecock. His words this week: "Firm fairways and greens with wind make this unplayable some years. Players who can't handle these conditions get exposed by the end of day one." This is why we weight approach play, scrambling, and off-the-tee higher here than almost any event we've modeled. Shinnecock doesn't hide. The course tells you who doesn't belong by Thursday evening. Our model already knows. ⛳

Brooks Koepka is one of our biggest fades this week. Market has him #10. Our model has him #41. Five major wins including two US Opens here commands an enormous narrative premium. The model doesn't grade on trophies though. Par-3 rank #97 in the field. At a course with four of the most punishing par-3s in US Open history. Shinnecock will expose him. ⛳

Models are locked for the US Open at Shinnecock Hills. Major week. Here's where the edge lives: Ryan Gerard +12500 — P2 at the Memorial. Model #25, market #46. Best combination of edge size and stat credibility on the board. Top-10 at +740. Top-5 at +1,650. Bud Cauley +10000 — won the RBC Canadian Open last week. The market hasn't adjusted. This is the most actionable stale-market opportunity we've seen all season. Top-10 at +610. Top-5 at +1,375. Sepp Straka +11000 — model #23, market #42. Elite approach and T2G. Quietly perfect profile for this setup. Top-20 props are where the value sits here — shop your book for the best line. Min Woo Lee +7600 — biggest edge in our model's top 20. Approach, T2G, par-3 rank #14 on a course with four of the best par-3s in major history. Top-10 at +520. These aren't just outright bets. The placement props are where the real value lives at a major — especially on names the market is underpricing by 10-20 spots. Two models. Same course. Same data. Not the same conclusions. ⛳

@CoolbetCanada Our model has Hughes 26 spots below where the market has him this week. Negative approach, negative T2G — at the most approach-dependent course on the slate. Tough spot for a hometown story. ⛳

Models are locked for the RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto. This week, just the edges. Biggest value: Zach Bauchou +14000 — model #27, market #56. The single largest gap on the board. Top-10 at +830 is the cleanest expression of this edge. Doug Ghim +8200 and Andrew Putnam +9800 round out the top value. Both have iron games and profiles the market hasn't connected to this layout yet — Top-20 props (+540 and +580) are great value here. Carryover: Aaron Rai and Alex Noren — both finished close at Memorial as value picks (T19, 9th). Same edge, second straight week. Top-10 lines at +320 and +305 are worth a look again. Biggest fade: Mackenzie Hughes. A Canadian playing his national open, priced #50. Our model has him #76. Same profile that got MacIntyre at the Memorial. Two models. One course. The edges — and the placement props — are the story this week. ⛳

The biggest fade of our week is a Canadian playing his national open - Mackenzie Hughes. Market has him #50. Our model has him #76. Negative approach, negative T2G, at the most approach-dependent course on the entire schedule. Same exact profile that got Robert MacIntyre at the Memorial. The market pays for the story. The course doesn't read headlines. Sorry, Canada. ⛳

@UnderdogGolf Ryan Gerard was +10,000 pre-tournament. Biggest value signal in our model this week. Time to wheel it home

The model flagged Ryan Gerard as the biggest market mismatch in the field this week. +10,000 odds. 16 spots below where we had him. He's tied for the lead at the Memorial on Sunday afternoon. The course doesn't lie. ⛳

Sharp Lies | Course Intelligence @Sharp_Lies

3 months ago

Ryan Gerard tied for the lead at the Memorial. He was +10,000 before a ball was struck. Our model had him as one of the biggest gaps between model rank and market price in the entire field this week. Back-to-back top-10s at the CJ Cup and Colonial. The market ignored it. The

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@ForePlayPod Best weekend player in the game

Corey Conners with back to back birdies on 15 & 16 Moves him from +6 to +4 and gets him 1 stroke below the cut line Both days he’s played well on the back nine, he just hasn’t been able to figure the front 9 out

@PGATOUR Excited to see what he does this weekend! Scottie is undoubtedly the best weekend player in the game.

@NUCLRGOLF Then ball went forward, no pictures on the scorecard 🤷🏻‍♂️

@UnderdogGolf Looks like the Threepeat pressure is getting to him. Still can't count him out. Scottie is one of the best weekend players in the game!

@PGATOUR @petermillar Looks like me...if I got lessons and became better at golf...

@KalshiSports And since everyone always wants proof — here's a glimpse into our model's value signals heading into this week. Locked in Wednesday. Before a ball was struck. ⛳

Ryan Gerard at 10% to win. Our model had him as the biggest gap between model rank and market price in the entire field this week. He was +10,000 odds before a ball was struck! STRONG VALUE signal. The market had him 16 spots lower than us. Kalshi is catching up. The model was already there. ⛳

@PGATOUR @MemorialGolf Ryan Gerard was +10,000 before a ball was struck. Our model had him as the biggest gap between model rank and market price in the entire field this week. A STRONG VALUE signal that the market ignored. The course told us who fits. ⛳

Ryan Gerard tied for the lead at the Memorial. He was +10,000 before a ball was struck. Our model had him as one of the biggest gaps between model rank and market price in the entire field this week. Back-to-back top-10s at the CJ Cup and Colonial. The market ignored it. The model didn't. This is exactly what Sharp Lies is built to find. 👀⛳