SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

Long-time buy-side pro musing about small-cap stocks, markets, and Wall St experience from the inside. Tweets are NOT financial advice. Do your own work. Joined September 2020

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

4 hours ago

@traderQuach9 @Dansfera They need the volumes first. And let's assume I give you that Anaphylm is more attractive than neffy, I assure you early volumes are incredibly difficult to get. I was an insider in the food allergy world for over a decade. Reaching people is much more difficult than would seem.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

7 days ago

1/ While I was away, $SPRY got the very disappointing news that CVS Caremark won't be adding non-p.a. coverage on 7/1 as hoped/expected by the market. This was not a rejection, but a deferral - albeit one with no defined timeline. I think coverage is eventually necessary. (more)

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

a day ago

@Dansfera You had it right the first time. "Another window Anaphylm still HAS to walk through," not your change "still GETS to walk through." $SPRY's deferrals are a (-), but may be even HARDER for $AQST since they need to get to the same share WITH a non-needle competitor in the mkt.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

a day ago

@Dansfera true!

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

a day ago

@traderQuach9 @Dansfera That's not right. What matters to PBMs are THEIR profits, not $AQST's or $SPRY's. And when drug volumes are low, PBMs do better by NOT covering. Thus, $AQST will have to slog it out for a while to get enough share the same way neffy had to. It's not an easier path.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

4 days ago

@AscendingBio @DavidLeathers13 @traderQuach9 @Dansfera $PAYS is a great stock to look at if you want to see the pharma middlemen who drive up costs get screwed. Stock is up a lot. Still about 50% to go IMO.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

4 days ago

@traderQuach9 @Dansfera They really, really don't. That's just not how it works. You've really way, way oversimplified a very complex and messy process that every drug goes through.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

4 days ago

@AscendingBio @traderQuach9 @Dansfera That will have absolutely no bearing on coverage. The insurers care about the profitability only.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

5 days ago

@traderQuach9 @Dansfera I don't think your #'s are on, but the idea is. And yes, AQST is learning. However, discreet isn't important. Your "cellphone argument" is the one everyone banks on. It's good, but not the dominator some are suggesting. And AQST will start at square 1 on coverage too.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

5 days ago

@worldsceo Even better on the "blowup day" at $5.60, $5.20, and $4.90! Funny how, when you look at the chart now, that's just a weird overextended line on an otherwise great upward trajectory of other lines. Puts things in perspective.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

6 days ago

With $PAYS continuing to climb to near all-time highs, I'm re-posting a chart I put up a few wks ago - the circled area is the stock tanking 25% on an earnings "miss." I felt the reaction was irrational and bought 3x that day - $4.80-5.60. This is a reminder to KNOW YOUR STOCKS.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

6 days ago

@bwm7 haha. true. I do like what Conn's doing, but we "know" $BYRN's Q2 will be a disaster - and I don't think they'll have enough visibility on Q3 to make us feel good on the Q2 call. That said, Q3 certainly has an opportunity to be a good Q for them.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

6 days ago

@AscendingBio I fully expect $SPRY sales to shoot up in the weeks leading up to back-to-school, but I'm not sure share won't dip a bit like last year. There's just too much automatic refill of EpiPen scripts. So while sales have to pop, the share gain importance is the rest of the year IMO.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

6 days ago

@Cream43560 I don't understand

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

3 weeks ago

Don't skip over the public letter from $BYRN's CEO today. His words lay out the thesis as to how $BYRN sales will re-accelerate starting late this CY, resuming strong growth beyond. And seeing early fruits in higher conversations rates online and in retail is excellent new news.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

3 weeks ago

"Jehoshaphat took three separate $GIL departures, grouped them together under the umbrella of 'recent resignations from the Ethics and Fraud Compliance Committee,' and implied it was a single, coordinated walkout." It is a classic activist short technique.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

3 weeks ago

@JP24KPHW Did you say something that went against their thesis? You can go straight to their website anyway and see the full report.

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

3 weeks ago

On vacation, so haven't read the $GIL short report, but the authors note, "Once we've told the world about a short pos'n in a stock, we're probably going to start exiting... There's even a decent chance we'll exit the entire pos'n the same day we publish our opinions about it."

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

3 weeks ago

@JP24KPHW Who blocked you? The short report is on their website as a public document (that's what shorts do).

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SmallCapKing @SmallCapKing2

3 weeks ago

Being on vacation and not having relationships w/ Canadian sell-siders, I'd love some of my Canadian institutional followers (or any follower) to DM me reports or notes you see from the sell-side about today's short report on $GIL. I'm shocked at the magnitude of this hit.