Span @SpanInvest

Headlines fade. Business models don’t. Think deeper, invest smarter. San Jose, CA Joined November 2022

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Span @SpanInvest

a week ago

$HUBB reports Jul 28. April's guide raise rested on three legs: price realization, data center >25%, and grid automation turning positive in Q2. This is the print where all three get tested at once — and the first carrying NSI's ~$2.8B of new debt in the interest line. Grade the legs, not the EPS. 👇

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Span @SpanInvest

a week ago

$FCX the record-copper beat did the covering, exactly as we flagged. $0.74 adj EPS on $6.17/lb realized copper, no insurance crutch. Volume still soft (sales 710M < production 786M lb) — it was all price. Grasberg didn't slip this time (PB2/3 ~97% cleared, restart Q2'26). But unit cost crept to $1.97/lb, and the stock fell anyway — on a softening copper outlook. Watch the mine and the copper curve, not the EPS. 👇 x.com/SpanInvest/sta…

Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$FCX reports 7/23 pre-market — and record copper is doing a lot of covering. Underneath: Grasberg's restart has slipped twice (100→60kt/day, now mid-2027), unit costs keep climbing $1.50→$1.95, and it's the third quarter of 'timing, not resource.' A price-driven beat is

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Span @SpanInvest

a week ago

$SFM reports Jul 29. Turnaround bet on H2 normalization — Q2 proves or breaks it.

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Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$NFLX Q2 FY26 — the classic “beat the print, break on the guide.” EPS $0.80 (beat 1¢), revenue $12.56B (+13%, a hair light). Then a soft Q3 guide + trimmed FY top end → −8.5% after hours. When you’re priced for perfection, in-line is a miss. 👇

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Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$ALLY Q2 — beat with an asterisk. Revenue/NIM/guide beat, EPS light. Watch credit.

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Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$TSLA Q2: we flagged four things — all four tripped. Auto GM ex-credits 16.3% (below our 17% line). FCF turned negative −$1.1B. Capex +142%. EPS $0.33 vs $0.50 est — a miss, not the priced-in beat. Still valued as a robotaxi. The automaker underneath just stalled, and every hard catalyst slipped to 2027. x.com/SpanInvest/sta…

Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$TSLA reports Jul 22. At $374 the market implies ~58% owner-earnings growth — while the auto engine has shrunk three years running and share slips in EVs, storage, robotaxi and humanoids alike. The one question: does the auto business stabilize, or is the AI capex just funding

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Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$NOK reports 7/23 pre-market — up ~5% into the print on the chip rally. The question isn't whether the AI orders are real (Q1 proved that: +49%, €1B booked) — it's whether they carry a margin. And don't overlook the quiet leg: Nokia Technologies, a ~73%-margin patent cash cow (~€800M/yr to 2030) the market keeps ignoring. 👇

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Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$CLF reports 7/23 pre-market — a loss is already baked in (Street −$0.21), so the quarter isn't the story. The overlooked one: CLF is ~the only US maker of grain-oriented electrical steel — the steel inside transformers. As AI data centers starve the grid of transformers, that's a quiet picks-and-shovels leg on the power buildout (it just won a military GOES contract). Watch the guide — and whether they finally talk up the electrical-steel demand. 👇

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Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$INTC reports 7/23 after close — up huge on a turnaround, and now trading above the Street's target. So the print isn't the ~$0.21 EPS. It's Foundry: external revenue is still $174M against a ~$2.4B quarterly loss. A named anchor customer changes everything. More 'pipeline' doesn't. 👇

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Span @SpanInvest

2 weeks ago

$FCX has a phrase it really likes. "A timing issue. Not a resource issue." It has now used that line to explain away three straight quarters of bad news at the best copper mine on Earth — Grasberg. Each time, management sounded confident. Each time, one quarter later, the plan lost to the mine. Summer 2025. Freeport quietly re-models Grasberg's gold grades. 2025 gold guidance gets cut ~15%. The explanation: ore is moving through slower than expected. Timing, not resource. September 2025. A mud rush partly buries the operation. On the Q4 call, 2025 copper guidance is cut ~10%. But the restart is mapped out, confidently: PB2/3 back by Q2, ramping to 100,000 tonnes a day, roughly 85% of capacity recovered in the second half. Management called the episode "humbling" — and said they'd risen to it. One quarter later, that plan met the actual mine. PB2/3 was cut to 60,000 tonnes a day — 40% below the number they had just handed out — and pushed to mid-2027. Five-year copper guidance: −9%. Gold: −7%. Same phrase. Third time. And while the volumes slipped, the costs climbed every single print. Net unit cash cost guidance: $1.50 → $1.55 → $1.75 → $1.95. That $1.95 quietly leaves out $1.3B of idle costs — up from $900M. The cost of a mine sitting there not producing isn't in the "cash cost" number they like to quote. So why isn't the stock a wreck? Copper. Freeport doesn't hedge — every $0.10/lb is roughly $330M of cash flow. Yesterday it jumped 6.4%, on a sector-wide copper rally. Not on anything about the mine. Here's the part I keep turning over. UBS just named Freeport its top copper pick — citing the Grasberg recovery as the key catalyst. The recovery that has now been promised, re-promised, and missed three times. It reports tomorrow, pre-market. One thing worth watching above everything else: whether they finally give a restart date that holds. Three strikes on "timing" isn't bad luck. It's a pattern. (Not advice — just the pattern, laid out in order.) x.com/SpanInvest/sta…