Stuart @StuPredicts
Commercial Director @nextpredictio. Building NEXTPredict. Trying to work out if prediction markets are finance, gaming, media, or all of the above. Joined June 2026-
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Following145
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@Kalshi Why would anyone pre-order a digital game 🤨
@benwfreeman1 This is @Kalshi’s $500m furlong 😄
@RockstarGames @JgaltTweets @netflix Clever move by @netflix
@mansourtarek_ @Kalshi Gotta have that pitbull in the ribcage
The pattern under all five: prediction markets are getting easier to use while the machinery underneath gets harder to see. Rules, compliance, creators, pricing and distribution are becoming businesses in their own right. Which rabbit hole next week?
5/5 A July preprint analysed 23m moneyline trades on @Kalshi and found cross-game parlays were systematically overpriced vs their component legs, with the gap growing with leg count. Early research, but a good reason to watch the product design.
Fast Facts Friday 🧵 Went digging beyond the big funding and court headlines and found five prediction-market facts hiding in @Reddit threads, SEC filings, a CFTC letter and a research preprint.
The logo count is useful. The architecture is the real story. Which right becomes most valuable from here? League IP, official data, venue visibility, broadcast integration, athlete access or direct distribution to the fan? 9/9
That can shape far more than brand visibility. Rights can determine which platforms reach which fans, which official data they use, where they appear on broadcasts, how they activate at venues and who keeps the customer relationship after the event. 8/9
The commercial wrinkle: “exclusive” rarely means exclusive across the whole sport. A league, team, venue, athlete, broadcaster, data provider and customer platform can each control a different piece of what looks like the same prediction-market opportunity. 7/9
@Polymarket has @ufc, @Zuffa_Boxing, @atptour, The Garden Cup at @TheGarden, @BLASTPremier and @SINNERS_Esports. @Novig has @livgolf_league. @Kalshi has @propadelleague. This has moved beyond logos on LED boards. Prediction markets are competing across the whole stack. 6/9
Football is even busier. @Polymarket has @MLS, @LaLiga, @SerieA, @LigaBBVAMX, @Bundesliga_EN and @OfficialSSLazio. @Predictstreet had @FIFAcom’s official category for @FIFAWorldCup. @Kalshi has @afa, @HNS_CFF, @lukamodric10 and @Footballco’s @goal (House of GOAL). 5/9
Baseball now has three layers. @Polymarket holds @MLB-level rights. @Novig has the @Mets. @Polymarket has the @Yankees, with @Yankeestadium and @YESNetwork visibility. Same sport. Different rights. Different routes. 4/9
Hockey shows how messy this gets. @NHL appointed @Kalshi and @Polymarket. @Kalshi then signed @NHLBlackhawks. @Polymarket signed @NYRangers. So the @NYRangers have @Polymarket, while @TheGarden and @MSGNetworks are with @Kalshi. 3/9
Why 27 from 24 announcements? @NHL named both @Kalshi and @Polymarket. @TKOGrp covered both @ufc and @Zuffa_Boxing. @Kalshi’s Croatia announcement included a separate @lukamodric10 ambassador relationship. Everything else is counted once. 2/9
Prediction markets have gone from a sports experiment to a rights land-grab in under 10 months. I audited every sports-property deal I could find. The scoreboard: @Polymarket - 16 @Kalshi - 8 @Novig - 2 @Predictstreet - 1 24 announcements. 27 direct relationships. 1/9
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