TLivingstonBlog @TLivingstonBlog

$QQQ $SPY looking really good here. Looks like we had a stealth correction beneath the surface the last few months but conditions look to be improving. End of the mid-term year is usually a good period. Link to full blog post tlivingstonblog.com/post/qqq-sp-50…

Bitcoin chart looks fantastic as a major cycle low is likely in. Link to full blog post: tlivingstonblog.com/post/bitcoin-s… #bitcoin $IBIT bitcoin:native #crypto

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Caution Warranted As The Market Approaches September tlivingstonblog.com/post/caution-w…

My Favorite Weekly Chart Setup: The "Character Change" This is my go-to setup for getting into new uptrends early, and it’s something I use only on weekly charts. The CC (character change) is all about patience and waiting for clear evidence that the trend has shifted. ⚠️ If you’re looking for quick trades or need to be active, this might not be for you, because these require you to sit after you get in for a long time and let it do it's thing. Why Weekly Charts? Weekly charts smooth out a lot of the noise you see on daily charts. They give you a bigger picture and help you see the trend more clearly. What Is the "Character Change" Setup? This setup is about recognizing when a stock is transitioning from a long downtrend to the early stages of an uptrend. It’s all about waiting for specific signals on the weekly chart that show that it is highly likely the long-term trend is now up. Here’s what I look for: 1. First Higher Low After a long downtrend, I look for the stock to make a higher low on the weekly chart. This alone isn't enough but it's our first piece of evidence that something might be up. 2. HUGE Volume with a Price Pop The other thing to look for is a big surge in volume with a strong price move. This shows real institutional interest. This is our second piece of evidence. You have a higher low + it's first massive push. After this I have confidence the birth of a solid new trend is likely in place. Also the 1st or 2nd above can happen in any order you just want to see both. 3. New 10 Week respect The way you get a low-stress entry with incredible R/R is by waiting now that you have the evidence of a true CC on your side. The 3rd piece of the puzzle where you can enter with extremely low risk if it doesn't work is when you see the stock start to respect the 10-week moving average for the first time. Example 1: $APP Let’s look at APP, which had a huge run after showing this setup and my second best trade of all time. 1. Volume Pop: First, I noticed a big volume spike, but I didn’t jump in just because of that alone, not enough evidence. 2. First Higher Low: After the volume pop, the stock pulled back a bit and made a higher low. That’s when I got interested. As it made that higher low, it started respecting the 10-week moving average. 3. Holding the 10-Week: It then resumes its move being supported clearly by the 10 week again. That’s the final confirmation needed. APP took time to develop this setup. Even though it might look like dumpster diving, since these are weekly charts, the downtrend is long over before it becomes a buy. From there, it just kept riding the 10-week line up , giving you multiple chances to add to your position if you caught it or many chances to get in. Example 2: $PYPL (currently developing) PayPal was dead money for a long time, making lower lows. Then early this year we started developing a CC. 1. Higher Low: This grinded sideways but still ended up being a big higher low. 2. Volume Pop: Here we get a big price push on volume. Technically we had a few before the higher low was confirmed, and an entry could have been established after the higher low because the risk is so low. But this was the clear Volume pop. 3. New 10W Respect: This is final evidence for me, off the volume pop the weakness is supported by the 10W for the first time. Super low risk entry and you can see if this is a real long-term trend then we are still very early. Example 3: $PTON (very early, still developing, and new position) Peloton had been stuck in a downtrend for over two years, so I didn’t even consider buying until it started showing evidence that the downtrend might be done. 1. Higher Low: Instead of breaking to a new low, it held up at a slightly higher level. It’s subtle, but this is a big clue that the character of the stock is shifting. (It was kind of a retest of the same low, not much of a higher low, so you can argue #3 on the chart is also the first higher low. Doesn't matter, by 3 you have all 3 pieces of evidence.) 2. Volume Pop: Next, a significant volume spike paired with a strong price move. But I don’t buy just because of a volume spike—I need more confirmation. 3. Trading Tight into the 10-Week Moving Average: After the volume pop, PTON started trading tightly near the top of that move and right into the 10-week moving average. This is what really got me interested because even if it fails, I can't emphasize enough.... the R/R for these types of setups is off the charts. The big thing here is patience. I don’t jump in while a stock is still in a downtrend. I wait until it’s made a higher low, shown a volume surge, and started respecting the 10-week moving average. By the time I get in, the downtrend has usually been over for a while. I’m letting the stock prove itself first. Quick Recap Here’s what makes the character change setup work: 1. Higher Low on the Weekly: Signals the stock might be done making new lows and could be shifting to an uptrend. 2. Volume Pop: A big volume spike with a price move. This tells you that there is now real interest in this name and adds evidence to support the birth of a new trend. 3. New 10-Week Respect: This helps add further evidence the momentum is on your side and allows you to get in with really low risk if it doesn't end up working. Remember, this setup takes time to develop. The hardest part is the patience. It is a lot of hands off and waiting but thats also how I like my trades. Low stress. Less is more! If you made it here...drop a reply—I’d love to hear your thoughts and questions.

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Days where ATR extension landed in range (7–12+) 7 ATR → 11,436 days (69.4%) | 1,316 stocks 8 ATR → 3,662 (22.2%) | 760 stocks 9 ATR → 967 (5.9%) | 275 stocks 10 ATR → 281 (1.7%) | 82 stocks 11 ATR → 49 (0.3%) | 18 stocks 12+ ATR → 87 (0.5%) | 21 stocks

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How to calculate ATR Extension to SMA50? The below outlines how to calculate ATR-to-SMA50 in the way popularized by the ever excellent @jfsrev and @RealSimpleAriel ATR is Wilder 14-day ATR which mathematically the same as EMA27, with Wilder ATR $ being readily available on leading data sources like @finviz_com and @tradingview Jeff and @DumbleDax have kindly shared a public indicator for TradingView 🙌 tradingview.com/script/oimVgV7…

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Michael Yeoman @MJYeoman1

5 months ago

@SteveDJacobs How do you calculate the ATR% and ATR Ext? For MXL I have 15.89% and ATR Ext of 9.33%. Obviously I am not mathing correctly...

3 0 1 20K 1

Came across this document of Qullamagi’s 2020–2021 trade positions. If you go through these trades, one of the best things you’ll notice is the risk–reward. There a lot of losing trades. But the losses are not big, mostly around one or two X. On the other hand, the winning trades are much bigger. If you go through the stock names, try to understand the thought process behind each trade. Yes, this is from 2021, but a lot of things can still be understood today if you go through these trades. Go through it. Try to understand it. Good luck. Link - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Market action is looking somewhat similar to 1998 tlivingstonblog.com/post/pary-like…

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Kristjan Kullamagi @Qullamaggie going over Jesse Livermore's 21 Trading Rules, written in 1940.

$VIX trending higher and $SPY $QQQ living below their 200-day moving averages. Extremely dangerous market conditions. We could totally unwind. Cash is a position. Extreme caution is warranted here.

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Leaders like $VRT $SNDK $MU $LITE $BE getting hit very hard. $SPY $QQQ living below 200-day. This is a very dangerous market. Cash is the best position here. No need to argue and fight the tape. Remember, can always get back in when conditions improve.

$SPY $QQQ holding weakly at their 200-day moving averages. May be forming bear flag patterns. All cash here. Link to full blog post: tlivingstonblog.com/post/caution-w…

"The second you think you are smarter than the 10 & 20 day MA, that's when you are doomed for mediocrity. Trust me. I talk from experience. " -@Qullamaggie

Are we soon going to get an epic spot to buy some TQQQ for a multi month hold? I have done my homework and know exactly where Im buying... Lets see...

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My New Market Dashboard Inspired by Jeff @jfsrev and @Clement_Ang17 , I originally used Excel to design my own market dashboard for tracking sectors, industries, and country ETFs. However, with recent advancements in AI-assisted coding, I’ve found that an HTML-based version is not only more aesthetic but also far more powerful. It allows for advanced features like calculating ATR multiple extensions from the 50D SMA and Volatility Adjusted Relative Strength. I’ve also integrated TradingView charts and a section for tracking macro events directly on the page. I’m now sharing this dashboard with FinTwit community. If you aren’t interested in the code, you can simply view the static page after 16:30 ET, as it is automatically updated via GitHub. If you’d like to customize it, the source code is open-source and available for you to modify. Thanks for your support! Features: • Indices, sectors, industries, country ETFs • ATR%, ATR multiple extension from 50SMA, 1M-VARS (volatility-adjusted relative strength) • Macro events calendar • TradingView charts • Auto-refresh Mon–Fri 16:30 ET via GitHub Actions • Data: Yahoo Finance + investpy Live site (no setup): traderwillhu.github.io/market_dashboa… Source code: github.com/traderwillhu/m…

$FPS recent IPO, worth watching for a buy point if it makes a new high

$FTAI setting up well with earnings set for 2/25 after the bell. AI power theme

Took some $BE today, strong action off the 20-day and looks like a key leader. Energy name with huge estimates for 2026 & 2027 and 99 RS rating

$MU looking fantastic with very tight action recently. High tight flag setup and checks many boxes (liquid, high RS, strong group, triple digit earnings, sales acceleration, huge estimates, etc. Will be looking to add above $440