Actually, @TheActuallyBlog
The best case for both sides of the fights you have at parties. Fact checked, lighthearted with a promise to piss you off no matter what you believe. Mondays. actuallyblog.substack.com Joined June 2026-
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Rent control is having a moment across the west. I've collected the evidence and written the steelman for each side for you to decide. As well as my opinion (neutrality is for the weak). "Rent Control: Will it save your city or just make it shitty?" 🔗 in comments
@BobBrace2 I think the government is more than capable of drafting thoughtful, high quality rules that encourage investment and benefit all Australians as issues arise. Unfortunately they've opted for paralysis.
@LeylaKuni Denominator working hard here. Pick an arbitrary trough and AI looks vertical. Capex should be measured against the revenue/earnings/growth it is supporting. Microsoft is hardly Webvan, the most profitable businesses in history are driving this spend
@DratchCap Really good analysis, though to play devils advocate the assumptions are bullish to say the least. If the huge capex far outstrips supply those price/utilisation rates plummet. Though it does look good at the moment
@rickyho_1989 Great graph! A bit far to say it's paying for itself, you'd need to add electricity/networking/model dev/ops etc. then hyperscalers are used to very high margins Huge milestone however and shows AI is monetising faster than data centre build outs!
Zoom out and the doomer case gets weaker. National data centre water use: ~5.5 GL Agriculture: 11,760 GL Mining: 749 GL Manufacturing: 472 GL Not the same league or even the same sport. (That 5.5 GL is industry-commissioned, so treat it as a ballpark)
Start with today. Sydney's data centres use ~3.5 GL of drinking water a year (Less than 1% of the city's demand). That is not a crisis. But all 89 facilities draw from the public drinking water network. The baseline is small, the concentration and growth rate are the story.
@SemiAnalysis_ $700m is trivial for Nvidia, they'll make lots of bets and some won't work out. A founder leaving after getting bought out is not shocking nor is them saying they'd open source in 2026, they still have 6 months. Bit of a non-story?
@bad_dadd @GaryMarcus Yeah that's a fair argument, I'd argue there's already significant demand but that needs to grow a lot to justify the valuations. That said the idea that hyperscalers are spending $700b this year without speaking to their customers or understanding the demand is far-fetched
@antideologist @GaryMarcus AI is selling, look at Anthropics ARR growth of $9b to $45b in 6 months or the hyperscaler earnings. Every client I work with is deploying it to some extend and for devs its already huge. You're right its yet to play out fully, but there's substantial money being already
@cremieuxrecueil The x-axis is the most important part of this chart. Chip supply can scale over five years but energy grids can't. It's like building the Burj Khalifa without an elevator.
@World_Data_A Great chart! Counter-intuitive since customers would prefer close their DC close so you'd expect more distribution. But compute ultimately goes where the energy is and the red tape isn't.
@AEMO_Energy AEMO stress-tests higher demand and constrained delivery separately but not both together. That is the real risk: data centres and industry ramp faster while generation and transmission arrive late. The combined case deserved its own sensitivity.
@renew_economy Wind is the glaring weakness in Australia’s grid transition. A project entering the connection process today may not reach full output until the last game of the world cup....the 2030 world cup. We don’t have a technology problem. We have a four-year delivery problem.
@MichaelAArouet Europe has the capital/customers/talent, what it lacks is American build speed. AI demand moves in quarters, Europe moves in decades. You can’t win a compute race with an economy designed to walk.
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