The Breakdown @TheBreakdownBW
How crypto really works. Podcast by @dcanellis | Newsletter by @bgilliam1982 Built by @Blockworks the-breakdown.carrd.co Subscribe to The Breakdown → Joined April 2020-
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Every major Ethereum upturn had a new primitive. DAOs. DeFi. NFTs. Prediction markets should have been next, but they went elsewhere. "There needs to be some new primitive." @post_polar_ @dcanellis
Pure ossification may never happen. But Ethereum is probably about a decade away from something close. "A lot of the more ambitious ideas will either migrate somewhere else or just run out of steam." @post_polar_ @dcanellis
Now that the dust has settled, it's clear that the EF has become a Cypherpunk organization. "It's clearly some kind of reassertion of the hard-line Cypherpunk position by the Ethereum Foundation." @post_polar_ @dcanellis
ETH Labs could be looked back on as one of the most consequential moments in Ethereum history. "I do see ETH Labs as the culmination of that populist revolt." @post_polar_ @dcanellis
@dcanellis @post_polar_ Apple🔊: bit.ly/3Mhkpln Spotify🔊: link.blockworks.co/4reKZel YouTube📺: youtu.be/JjBUipssoeY
NEW EP: Ethereum has been strengthened by a populist revolt. @dcanellis with @post_polar_ on the motivations behind the EF restructure and the launch of ETH Labs. We cover: 🔹 The EF's Silviculture: what it is and why it's now almost redundant 🔹 ETH Labs as a list of everyone on “the other side.” 🔹 Governance forums, issuance debates, all-core devs: where the clash will come 🔹 How far away Ethereum is from ossifaction.
Zuck is building the Zynga of prediction markets. Is he onto something? "It is definitely a gateway into real money betting at some point." @dcanellis
We are effectively now in a draconian regime when it comes to AI development. "We're just going to have this watered-down intelligence suite that is going to be permanently monitored by the US government." @dcanellis
Binance has $132B on the platform. It lost $1B over the past month amid the EU fallout. Maybe the big fish on Binance aren't in the EU. "Whether this truly impacts Binance at a material level, at least right now in the interim, I'm not too sure." @dcanellis
AI is going through exactly what crypto went through. Freedom technology, until it wasn't. "It is pushing the coolness factor out into the edges." @dcanellis
@dcanellis Apple🔊: bit.ly/3Mhkpln Spotify🔊: link.blockworks.co/4reKZel YouTube📺: youtu.be/7z2wzOW41O8
NEW EP: Binance is out of the EU. The US government is now approving AI model releases. And Zuck is building a Polymarket clone. @dcanellis with the data on all three. We cover: 🔹Binance's MICA failure and who gains from it 🔹Mythos 5 whitelist, Fable 5 still blocked, GPT-5.Sol same story 🔹Meta's Arena app and what Polymarket/Kalshi look like right now
Strategy insiders actually bought MSTR as it was falling earlier in the year. Average price: $92. Current price: $85. One is down 45%. "Those confidence bets in Strategy have not exactly paid off yet." @dcanellis
Strategy insiders have been selling since 2021. Saylor alone accounts for 99% of that big spike. "The big burst of sales, those options exercised, the 400K shares sold by Saylor — he generated $411 million almost by selling those shares." @dcanellis
There's a clear gap between the pain the market is feeling and the pain Strategy insiders are feeling. "They've effectively been able to insulate themselves with a ton of stock sales throughout the bull run." @dcanellis
@dcanellis Apple🔊: bit.ly/3Mhkpln Spotify🔊: link.blockworks.co/4reKZel YouTube📺: youtu.be/rKG81t8-6W4
NEW EP: Strategy insiders have been selling for years. @dcanellis maps five years of SEC disclosures to show who cashed out, who bought the dip, and what that tells us about the current pain. We cover: 🔹 Saylor's $411M options exercise in the early bull run. 🔹 Every major insider selldown at Strategy since 2021 🔹 The insiders who bought the dip, and how they're doing now 🔹 Coinbase and Circle for comparison
A small, focused Ethereum Foundation that goes all-in on cypherpunk is more powerful than a bloated one. "I think it is the healthiest thing possible that we do have a small Ethereum Foundation, at least one that is able to weaponize its treasury for the pursuit of cypherpunk goals." @dcanellis
The narrative that EF staff left because they were disgruntled might not be the full picture. "Maybe the EF is advising people to move on, or at least giving them the option to." @dcanellis
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