Tim Travis @TimTravisValue

Nothing makes Bible-denying academics seethe more than a discovery which supports that Biblical legends of ‘GIANTS’ may have been actually real 📍It is a fact that bones recovered from Denisovans (including teeth, jaw, cranium, and leg bones), prove that they were significantly LARGER than ancient humans, (which stood at only 5’2”-5’7” on average) So not only were Denisovans 8” TALLER than ancient Humans on average, their Skulls were substantially larger than any other cranium of Human known to have walked the earth Were ‘Nephilim Giants’ cited in ancient scripture actually 10-15ft tall? (Which is puzzling considering we haven’t found any these bones…unless the Smithsonian is truly hiding them. Yet, that doesn’t explain why none of us have found bones of giants while digging backyard pools or at various construction projects) OR, is their “Gigantic” size simply a ‘lost in translation’ thing? Is it possible that their true size has been warped by story telling over several thousand years, and the Biblical giants mentioned are actually our long lost Denisovan ancestors!? 🤔 The image comparison below is an artistic comparison to show just how much larger the Denisovan skulls were compared to us, and Neanderthals. We are yet to find any fully intact Denisovan skulls or skeletons. However, based on fragments we have found, the evidence shows that they were indeed much larger compared to ancient humans Is it possible that Denisovans are the Giants referenced in the Bible? Anyone that can’t handle that simple question suffers from a closed, unscientific mind :/

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Daily Mail US @Daily_MailUS

4 days ago

Extinct human remains found on seafloor fuel claims of real-life biblical giants

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Here is an entire feature-length documentary that I filmed, edited & narrated myself, travelling across Peru, documenting historical anomalies. For free ✌️ All I ask in return is that if you enjoy original work like this, help it grow with a comment, a like and a repost.

$MSFT CEO @satyanadella took time on the earnings call to show an analyst what an enterprise-wide Copilot workflow can actually look like: “It’ll be fun for you, Adam. I think one of your colleagues put out an ROIC document. I took that document to Copilot, which is a PDF, and said, ‘Build me a new Power BI dashboard, essentially.’ But here is the thing: it built a rich semantic model that went into my Fabric with OneLake and brought all the data in from external sources. In fact, it was current with all the SEC filings of all the Mag 7. On top of that, the repo itself is in GitHub. The artifact is sitting in my Copilot as a site. That, to me, is a classic example of an enterprise-wide workflow. I, as a knowledge worker, can go create a dashboard. The data engineer can go to Fabric and find the artifact. The professional developer can go to the repo and find it in GitHub. And by the way, it’s all registered with Agent 365, right? That’s a little bit of what Amy is describing as the coming together of a new way to work, while at the same time bringing IT, security, and manageability to it.”

The growth in $META's off balance sheet purchase commitments grew from $237b to $349b in just 3 months. Off balance sheet lease obligations grew from $182b to $279b in that same 3 months. Screenshot shows the off balance sheet liabilities as of 3/31 and 6/30. To be clear, I'm not worried about META's credit, and it's an incredible business, but it just shows how massively capital intensive these businesses have become (I do worry a bit about the growing amount of AI related debt making its way into the banking system though)

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Meta's Reality Labs unit lost another $4.6 billion in Q2, bringing its cumulative losses since 2020 up to $87 billion. We've never seen a public company light money on fire to this extent. $META

BREAKING: More than 1.2 million leveraged retail trading accounts in South Korea triggered margin calls as ​of July 13th, with an estimated 320,000–360,000 accounts fully liquidated, per Goldman Sachs. This means around 3.4% of the adult ⁠population in South Korea has received margin calls. The KOSPI is currently down another ~18% since July 13th. We believe that the total number of fully liquidated accounts is now above 500,000.

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

3 weeks ago

Absolutely incredible. In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap. Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

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Absolutely incredible. In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap. Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market falls -8% as the global chip stock selloff continues. South Korea’s stock market is now down -35% this month.

You were up more than 70% by June. You had done nothing clever. You bought what was going up because it kept going up, and for six months that was the smartest thing anyone in America could have done. Friends started asking what you owned. You told them. Goldman tracks a basket of the most crowded, fastest-moving stocks in the market. It topped above 850 in June. It sits at 503 today. Six weeks erased six months. You are back where you stood in early December. Here is the part that stings. There was no crash. On some of the worst days the S&P barely moved. No bank failed. No recession arrived. Nothing in the news was big enough to explain it. You just woke up one morning and the year was gone. That is what a crowded trade is. Not a bad idea. An idea so many people already had that when a few of them left, there was nobody left to sell to. Very few people rode the escalator. Almost everyone was in the elevator.

🚨 27 of the greatest investors who ever lived. One lesson from each (BOOKMARK THIS) 1. Charlie Munger. Invert. Solve every problem backward. Find how you'll fail, then don't do that. 2. Warren Buffett. A wonderful company at a fair price beats a fair company at a wonderful price. 3. Peter Lynch. Invest in what you already understand from daily life, before Wall Street notices. 4. Stan Druckenmiller. When you're right, bet enormous. Concentration, not diversification, builds fortunes. 5. George Soros. Reflexivity. Prices don't just reflect reality, they bend it. Find the feedback loop. 6. Terry Smith. Do nothing. Once you own the great business, inactivity is the strategy. 7. Julian Robertson. Long the best, short the worst. Let quality and junk pay you on both sides. 8. Joel Greenblatt. Rank the whole market by quality and cheapness, then buy the top mechanically. 9. Dan Loeb. When the business is good but management isn't, force the change yourself. 10. Jesse Livermore. The big money is in the sitting, not the trading. 11. Bernard Baruch. Nobody sells the top or buys the bottom except liars. Leave the last 10% alone. 12. Gerald M. Loeb. Markets are driven by crowd psychology, not arithmetic. Read the mood. 13. Nicolas Darvas. Buy stocks breaking into new-high ground. New highs precede bigger highs. 14. William O'Neill. Cut every loss at 7 to 8%, no exceptions, no opinions. 15. John Bogle. Don't hunt the needle. Buy the haystack, and never overpay in fees. 16. Mark Minervini. Define your exit before your entry. The trade starts with the risk, not the reward. 17. Ray Dalio. Uncorrelated bets are the holy grail. Diversify across regimes, not just stocks. 18. Bill Ackman. A dozen positions you'd defend publicly, held with total conviction. 19. Michael Burry. Do the work no one else will. Read the actual filings, to the last footnote. 20. Paul Tudor Jones. Defense wins. Preserve capital first, and never average down a loser. 21. Steve Cohen. Every edge decays. Adapt relentlessly or the market retires you. 22. Francois Rochon. Think like an owner across decades. Endure the drawdowns great businesses inflict. 23. Chris Hohn. A few dominant monopolies with pricing power beat a hundred clever trades. 24. Phil Fisher. Scuttlebutt. Talk to customers, rivals and suppliers. Find the rare growth compounder early. 25. Howard Marks. You can't predict, but you can prepare. Always know where you sit in the cycle. 26. Louis Moore Bacon. When your thesis and the tape disagree, respect the tape first. 27. David Tepper. Buy when others are paralyzed by fear. The best entries feel awful. Twenty-seven fortunes, twenty-seven edges. They split into two churches: those who buy wonderful businesses and wait, and those who follow price and cut fast. Both work. Drifting between them is what doesn't.

% Below All-Time High... JPMorgan: 0% Apple: -1% S&P 500: -3% Nvidia: -13% Amazon: -17% Google: -22% Meta: -25% Gold: -28% Microsoft: -31% Tesla: -37% Palantir: -42% Netflix: -48% SpaceX: -49% Bitcoin: -50% Silver: -52% MicroStrategy: -83% Trump Coin: -98% Melania Coin: -99%

“For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments.” — WB 🗣️ $ROL has gone nowhere in 6 years even though earnings have doubled. Don’t pay 70x for a mid-teens grower.

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Li Lu's investment philosophy "For the most part, you don't have to do a thing other than be amused. Once in a while, you will find a 'fat pitch' that is slow, straight, and right in the middle of your sweet spot. Then you swing hard."

$GOOGL Alphabet CEO: Near-term Cloud margin dilution reflects deliberate: "So are you willing to take upfront six-month deal to be able to serve that customer in what is a multi-year opportunity where the margins and the returns are very, very attractive over that multi-year horizon?” customer capture rather than deteriorating long-term deal economics...While a short-term cost over a few months may be very high—in the lifetime of the deal, as we bring more capacity on, is highly ROI positive.

The Transcript @TheTranscript_

4 weeks ago

Alphabet CEO says they accept elevated short-term capacity costs when they secure strategically important, multi-year Cloud customer relationships. “There are, on the margin, very, very large customers of ours on cloud whom we are trying to support through this extraordinary

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Whenever I see the question on whether a product is going to increase or decrease margins, I want to ask: would you rather make more money or less money? What matters isn’t profit margin, it’s profit dollars per unit of capital. I don’t have a view on whether Google should be selling TPU’s or whether they should be renting 3rd party capacity, but if you are an owner, i think you’d ask if those deals would make you more money (profit dollars) and if so, you’d want to know how much additional capital you’d have to put up to make those profits. Margin wouldn’t really even matter to you

Gene Munster @munster_gene

4 weeks ago

$GOOG dips slightly more. Now down 4% on CFOs comment that Cloud margins they will go down in the back half of this year because they need to go to third parties, aka $SPCX , to meet the demand. $GOOG As for TPU's would not answer the question about margins on TPU vs Cloud, now

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This is what deferring profit looks like when it's deliberate MercadoLibre $MELI revenue: from $28 million in 2005 to $28.9 billion in 2025, a 39.8% CAGR over two decades. Operating margin: peaked at 15%, then walked down to 11% while the company poured everything into fulfillment and free shipping. The market read falling margins and sold. Sleep would have read the same statement and asked one question: what is this business becoming?

Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat

4 weeks ago

20.8% a year for 13 years. Then he gave the money back and kept three stocks Amazon $AMZN. Costco $COST. Berkshire $BRK.NE. The Nomad terminal portfolio. The question we spent 10,000 words answering: does a fourth pass the test? $MELI thierryvonarvy.substack.com/p/nick-sleep-n…

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In 2014, at the height of his powers, this man gave the money back Nick Sleep compounded at 20.8% a year for thirteen years. 921% versus 117% for the index. No leverage, no shorting, no derivatives. Billions under management. Then he wound down the fund, kept three stocks, and walked away. Amazon. Costco. Berkshire. Today's deep dive is the full anatomy of his thinking: the Costco study in its numerical glory, the letters, the psychology, the whiteboard. And the position where we believe the same playbook is running today, two decades earlier in its arc, with our own capital committed.

Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat

4 weeks ago

20.8% a year for 13 years. Then he gave the money back and kept three stocks Amazon $AMZN. Costco $COST. Berkshire $BRK.NE. The Nomad terminal portfolio. The question we spent 10,000 words answering: does a fourth pass the test? $MELI thierryvonarvy.substack.com/p/nick-sleep-n…

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Apple's P/E Ratio: 40x 10-year average: 26x Apple's EV/EBITDA Ratio: 31x 10-year average: 19x Apple's Price to Sales Ratio: 11x 10-year average: 6x $AAPL

Here's a letter Buffett sent to the Chairman of Interpublic in Feb 1974. EPS 1973: $2.74 Avg stock price 1974: $10.38 EPS 1983: $8.75 Avg stock price 1984: $108.68

From Horizon Kinetics in June: This is something I hadn't really appreciated. The megacap tech companies benefited from free riding the capex spending of the Verizons & ATTs of the world for years; now they have to pay up. horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Un…