Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd
Founder, https://t.co/rjHtXEyEjy | $ZIG & $DEEP ETFs | Author, Acquirer's Multiple (https://t.co/84Cyi4YgrD) acquirersmultiple.com Los Angeles, CA 🇺🇲🇦🇺🦘 Joined February 2009-
Tweets24K
-
Followers71K
-
Following2K
-
Likes75K
"They track like six or seven different market level valuation metrics...every single one of them is, and collectively they're at their most overvalued in the dataset." "It's tempting to look at those market valuations and get scared out of the market. And that's a mistake." Tobias Carlisle on an extremely expensive market, and the danger of reacting to it in the wrong way.
Analysts collectively expect S&P 500 earnings to compound at ~24% annually for five years, roughly double their historical norm. The current spike is higher than any prior point in the 40-year series, including the Dot Com peak of ~19% around 2000–2001 and the 2020/21 Meme Stock peak ~24%. It's a sentiment indicator, not a forecast you should trust. Analysts are notoriously bad at five-year earnings projections, and the estimates tend to be most wrong precisely when they're most extreme. A 24% sustained growth rate for the entire index is historically very rare to actually deliver.
The large cap Russell 1000 Growth index relative to the small cap Russell 2000 Value index appears to have failed at both the 1999 and 2020 resistance levels and has suddenly found itself breaking below support that dates to 1980, 1991 and 1992.
Pure risk appetite inside the S&P 500. SPHBI is the S&P 500 High Beta Index—the 100 stocks in the S&P 500 most sensitive to market moves (they rise and fall harder than the index). SPLVI is the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index—the 100 most stable, defensive names. The market is unambiguously risk-on, and at an extreme. Investors are aggressively favoring the most volatile, highest-beta names over defensive ones, and they've been doing so for the better part of a year (+67% ROC). This is what a strong, momentum-driven bull market looks like under the hood: big risk appetite, defensives left behind. The extremity is double-edged. The two prior times this ROC spiked to similar heights (2010 and 2021) both marked moments where the high-beta leadership soon stalled or reversed. A ratio at all-time highs with a near-record one-year surge says the trade is crowded and stretched, not that it's about to end, but historically these readings are where the risk/reward of chasing high beta gets worse.
Relentless speculation in junk smalls. $IWM tracks the Russell 2000, the broadest US small-cap index. It includes essentially all small companies, profitable or not. $VIOO tracks the S&P SmallCap 600, which applies a quality screen. Companies generally need positive earnings to be admitted. That single difference is the whole story of this chart: IWM is the "everything" small-cap basket, VIOO is the "profitable-only" small-cap basket. Money is rotating away from the safety of profitable small caps and into the broader, lower-quality Russell 2000, chasing the more speculative, often unprofitable names. Historically this kind of "dash for trash" within small caps is a risk-on signal: it tends to appear in strong, late-stage bullish phases when investors are reaching for beta and risk appetite is high.
Energy and tech almost never win at the same time. There's a clean mechanical reason. Tech is a long-duration asset. It lives and dies by the discount rate. Low yields, cheap liquidity, that's the paradise where a rich software multiple expands. The 2010s were exactly that.
The US stock market is expensive by any metric.
🔴The US stock market has never been this expensive across so many metrics simultaneously: The Trailing P/E ratio stands at ~30x, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The Shiller P/E, or CAPE ratio, stands at ~40x, also the 2nd-highest on record behind only the 2000 peak
I like to think this is the sort of joke Greenspan would have appreciated.
Energy and commodity investor John Love on: * AI Needs Trillions In Infrastructure Spending * Is Natural Gas The Next AI Trade? * Is AI Creating A New Commodity Supercycle? * Will SpaceX Build AI Data Centres In Space? * The World Is Running Out Of Copper * Copper Could Face A 15-Year Supply Crisis * The Bamboo Lesson Every Investor Needs To Learn * The Biggest Investment Opportunity Nobody Is Talking About
VALUE: After Hours (S08 E21): Is Copper the New Oil? USCF's John Love on the Metal Fueling the EV and AI Revolutions. Here's the full episode: acquirersmultiple.com/?p=54682
Ha.
"Every single person who critiques this, including some super smart people, says, 'The risk isn't volatility. The risk is the permanent loss of capital.' To which I always respond, 'No sh*t. You swear to me that this loss of capital is not permanent? I agree, it's not risk. Can
Best S&P 500 earnings revisions in more than 5 years... but are we near peak-earnings? @WisdomTreeFunds
The S&P 500 is effectively half tech @WisdomTreeFunds
Wild.
This chart becomes even more insane once you realize the y-axis is on a log scale. These are exponentials.
Everyone thinks their overvalued growth stock is going to grow eternally exponentially. There's never not a reason...
@ReformedTrader Interesting. Possible.
Unusual.
Here's what's driving it. And it's the kind of number that only shows up at extremes. Momentum stocks just went full tilt. The spread between momentum and low-volatility names hit a 5-standard-deviation overshoot above trend. The largest in the history of the series. Five sigma
Ian Cassel @iancassel
291K Followers 659 Following Finding great companies early @MicroCapClub // @PlanetMicroCap // @IntelligentCM // Author of "Stock Picker" September 2026
Christopher Bloomstra... @ChrisBloomstran
128K Followers 1K Following Nothing here is advice. Drop the phone and slowly back away from the Twitter. Read a 10-K. It’s a profession, not a business.
Mohnish Pabrai @MohnishPabrai
265K Followers 975 Following Pabrai Funds, The Dakshana Foundation, @wagonsetf; author of The Dhandho Investor and Mosaic. Views are my own.
Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1
111K Followers 2K Following Writer | Investor | Listener || ~ There are no great businesses, only great bets. Nothing you read here is investment advice. Read 👉 https://t.co/rVOdJUnxQI
Bill Brewster @BillBrewsterTBB
52K Followers 2K Following “Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” Bueller, Ferris
Special Situation Inv... @SSI_invest
58K Followers 442 Following Event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts. Merger Arbitrage Tracker.
🥦 Jake Taylor 🎉 @farnamjake1
15K Followers 537 Following Value: After Hours. Founder @Journalytic. Author of The Rebel Allocator. Nature, adventure, books, family. Never investment advice.
Meb Faber @MebFaber
141K Followers 3K Following Founder:@cambriafunds,@theideafarm Pod: https://t.co/CvHIZ68yqU Free books: https://t.co/gm0ghOal8Q Youtube: https://t.co/linHiudqoc Email: mf@cambriainvestments
Lawrence Hamtil @lhamtil
39K Followers 2K Following Business collector🚬🏋️♂️🛩️. Tweets are not financial advice & should not be construed as solicitations. They are for informational purposes only.
Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1
55K Followers 1K Following Nothing I say/tweet/emoji is investment advice, and is solely for entertainment only. Always DYODD, I am not your fiduciary!
Andrew Kuhn @FocusedCompound
47K Followers 2K Following Markets, capital allocation & American energy
Guy Spier 🇮🇱 �... @GSpier
70K Followers 2K Following Father, Husband, Investor, Author & Optimist. My now: https://t.co/OD8KxFzTH9 #FreeTheHostages #slavaukraini #IStandWithIsrael #RejoinEU Investor in Care Rating
Alex Morris (TSOH Inv... @TSOH_Investing
65K Followers 4K Following Founder of TSOH Investment Research Author of "Buffett & Munger Unscripted" https://t.co/93ijcEjMcC https://t.co/vVDDujAyyn
Corey Hoffstein 🏴�... @choffstein
85K Followers 1K Following CEO & CIO, Newfound Research | 🥞 Return Stacked® ETFs | 🌊 Liquidity Cascades | 📆 Rebalance Timing Luck | ⚡️ Risk cannot be destroyed, only transformed.
William Green @WilliamGreen72
47K Followers 5K Following Author, "RICHER, WISER, HAPPIER: How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets & Life" (https://t.co/7842Q0Vv1B). Host of the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast.
Mostly Borrowed Ideas @borrowed_ideas
149K Followers 3K Following Equity analyst sharing my investing journal. Daily Dose emails + monthly Deep Dive on one public company. Subscribe: https://t.co/bBHyta1Omy
mohamstock @mohamstock
26 Followers 276 Following
mitch @mitch1767550
3 Followers 14 Following
Zahaad xx @Zahaadxx
0 Followers 4K Following
美股哥斯拉 @HdPudin
42 Followers 187 Following
Bobby McCleery @maribelmoorings
120 Followers 221 Following
JimBobJoe @JimBobJoeO
17 Followers 130 Following
OptionsTradingWizard @OptionsTradeWiz
518 Followers 293 Following Options Trading | 25 Years Wall St |Hedge Fund Insider Real-Time Option Trades & Setups | Consistent Bangers Always Free | Turn on Notifications
TheAutopsy_ @TheAutopsy_
2 Followers 75 Following Cutting open businesses one story at a time. Revenue. Strategy. Collapse. Moats. No fluff. Just the truth.
* @czvvcz
5 Followers 1K Following
usuallyeven @usuallyeven
87 Followers 1K Following
sequences @sequences224511
26 Followers 75 Following
Gains Capital @GainsCapitalLLC
109 Followers 353 Following Here to talk equities, commodities, and more. Not financial or investment advice
Michael Petry @MikePetryOff
742 Followers 4K Following Ex Big4 Director — Deloitte. PwC. EY. KPMG. Building NobodyToldMike from scratch. Finance. Psychology. Philosophy. Figuring out money... and everything else.
WAVY MCFLY @WaveGodMcFly
2K Followers 8K Following RETIRED AT 34 🧠 23 YEAR TRADER & INVESTOR 📈📉 18 HOURS A DAY OF FINANCIAL & POLITICAL MEDIA👨🏿💻🤳🏿📺READ AT LEAST 100 ARTICLES A DAY & 2 BOOKS A WEEK
Leo-Lu @sufingeveryday
61 Followers 302 Following
Stephan Stansfield @peregrinepoise
91 Followers 222 Following Writer, researcher, educator. Fighting ignorance, finding balance, and exploring the human potential. Changing myself first, so I can change the world.
ben @run262Boston
73 Followers 834 Following
Mark Uretsky @markuretsky
281 Followers 1K Following PNL Collector 🏦 I post ideas that can make you money Options, cheap stocks, income ideas Follow before the good ones get crowded 👇
FGHHWQ @FGHHWQ129738
2 Followers 518 Following
. @levberg
251 Followers 4K Following
Daro daro @mkonta222
2 Followers 38 Following
Bull Market @ChieuVinaconex6
112 Followers 106 Following
Shepdog69 @Shepdog69138782
96 Followers 358 Following
Utopia @noquants
75 Followers 363 Following Curiosity professional. Not financial advice. For info only. Complete your own due diligence.
tradingstar9 @tradingstar9
111 Followers 622 Following Passionate trader and like to share economy , stocks , commodities and real estate analysis. my YouTube channel https://t.co/KlwiklbZa5
mermaid2e @mermaid2e
78 Followers 1K Following
Mariusz Bidelski @MBidelski
198 Followers 700 Following
Scott Crepeau @scottcrepe
154 Followers 929 Following
Steven Zheng @stevenzhengzx
4 Followers 83 Following
محمد @IThepoints
19 Followers 646 Following Every man has two lives, and the second starts when he realizes he has just one” — Confucius.
David Emanuel Cabezas... @Perseo95ec
1 Followers 56 Following
Judas Pig @PigJudas42047
28 Followers 388 Following
Jason @Jason6854221762
36 Followers 256 Following
Dimitri Ferrara @FerraraDimitri
113 Followers 4K Following
ramy nepal @jaded_nepali
18 Followers 2K Following
Crowd Wisdom @TheLonelyTrade1
63 Followers 388 Following The crowd is smarter than any single analyst 6,000+ pro traders → 1 clear edge. Beat the noise! 20 free insights - no card needed! Don't trade blind
LotsOfWine @KindWineSnob
163 Followers 1K Following I know some things about finance. “Jesus is the way, the truth, and the life.”
iceman @icemanpls
5K Followers 3K Following founder https://t.co/zgsrFN4leS HEX distributed to holders of 5,555 $pSSH. Nothing I say should be construed as financial advice.
John Stockdale @chedaorlaomer
139 Followers 704 Following
Luna Lowry @lowry_luna
32 Followers 193 Following
Ian Cassel @iancassel
291K Followers 659 Following Finding great companies early @MicroCapClub // @PlanetMicroCap // @IntelligentCM // Author of "Stock Picker" September 2026
Christopher Bloomstra... @ChrisBloomstran
128K Followers 1K Following Nothing here is advice. Drop the phone and slowly back away from the Twitter. Read a 10-K. It’s a profession, not a business.
Mohnish Pabrai @MohnishPabrai
265K Followers 975 Following Pabrai Funds, The Dakshana Foundation, @wagonsetf; author of The Dhandho Investor and Mosaic. Views are my own.
Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1
111K Followers 2K Following Writer | Investor | Listener || ~ There are no great businesses, only great bets. Nothing you read here is investment advice. Read 👉 https://t.co/rVOdJUnxQI
Bill Brewster @BillBrewsterTBB
52K Followers 2K Following “Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” Bueller, Ferris
Special Situation Inv... @SSI_invest
58K Followers 442 Following Event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts. Merger Arbitrage Tracker.
🥦 Jake Taylor 🎉 @farnamjake1
15K Followers 537 Following Value: After Hours. Founder @Journalytic. Author of The Rebel Allocator. Nature, adventure, books, family. Never investment advice.
Meb Faber @MebFaber
141K Followers 3K Following Founder:@cambriafunds,@theideafarm Pod: https://t.co/CvHIZ68yqU Free books: https://t.co/gm0ghOal8Q Youtube: https://t.co/linHiudqoc Email: mf@cambriainvestments
Lawrence Hamtil @lhamtil
39K Followers 2K Following Business collector🚬🏋️♂️🛩️. Tweets are not financial advice & should not be construed as solicitations. They are for informational purposes only.
Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1
55K Followers 1K Following Nothing I say/tweet/emoji is investment advice, and is solely for entertainment only. Always DYODD, I am not your fiduciary!
Andrew Kuhn @FocusedCompound
47K Followers 2K Following Markets, capital allocation & American energy
Guy Spier 🇮🇱 �... @GSpier
70K Followers 2K Following Father, Husband, Investor, Author & Optimist. My now: https://t.co/OD8KxFzTH9 #FreeTheHostages #slavaukraini #IStandWithIsrael #RejoinEU Investor in Care Rating
Alex Morris (TSOH Inv... @TSOH_Investing
65K Followers 4K Following Founder of TSOH Investment Research Author of "Buffett & Munger Unscripted" https://t.co/93ijcEjMcC https://t.co/vVDDujAyyn
Corey Hoffstein 🏴�... @choffstein
85K Followers 1K Following CEO & CIO, Newfound Research | 🥞 Return Stacked® ETFs | 🌊 Liquidity Cascades | 📆 Rebalance Timing Luck | ⚡️ Risk cannot be destroyed, only transformed.
William Green @WilliamGreen72
47K Followers 5K Following Author, "RICHER, WISER, HAPPIER: How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets & Life" (https://t.co/7842Q0Vv1B). Host of the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast.
Mostly Borrowed Ideas @borrowed_ideas
149K Followers 3K Following Equity analyst sharing my investing journal. Daily Dose emails + monthly Deep Dive on one public company. Subscribe: https://t.co/bBHyta1Omy
QuantifiedStrategies.... @QuantifiedStrat
18K Followers 140 Following Daily rule-based strategies (Backtested) on Stocks/ETFs/Futures. 1000+ algo trading strategies tested since 2012. | By Oddmund Groette And Håkan Samuelsson
Michael Dell 🇺🇸 @MichaelDell
4.4M Followers 4K Following Husband, Father, Grandfather, Brother, Founder, Chairman and CEO Dell Technologies Grateful 🇺🇸 #PlayNiceButWin https://t.co/3JiGiLQq1C
IMPERATOR @IMPERATORAUS
102K Followers 456 Following Roman Catholic • Thomistic Theologian • Biblical Scholar • Classical Historian • Stoic Philosopher
Special Situations Di... @specsitsdigest
2K Followers 514 Following A structured weekly digest of activist campaigns, strategic reviews, spin-offs, restructurings, divestitures, and M&A across 30+ markets. By @clarksquarecap
Elliott Wave Internat... @elliottwaveintl
52K Followers 378 Following EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm providing forecasts of every major financial market in the world. https://t.co/emSJdPTBzi
Chris Pavese @ChrisPavese
5K Followers 3K Following
Pernas Research @pernasresearch
15K Followers 404 Following Ex investment officer of a 3.5B firm | USAF 🇺🇸 | Add your email to https://t.co/0QX5aQAA3E to receive our research | Stock Ideas & Investing
waterboy @waterboystocks
3K Followers 670 Following Notes and portfolio updates -- https://t.co/iYGeMSiyvA
Cooper Stainbrook @cooperstainbroo
17 Followers 25 Following Denver-based, fundamental long only investor. Opinions are my own and nothing tweeted is investment advice nor a solicitation for investment advisory services.
Milei in English - Of... @jmilei_english
174K Followers 87 Following Javier Milei's official English account. All about Milei, his ideas, and latest news. The world needs freedom. Long Live Freedom, damn it...!!!
Schrodinger’s Oil T... @SchrodingersAlt
5K Followers 983 Following My trades exist in a state of superposition of both losses and profits. It's only when I put them on twitter that they all become winners Trade phys gasoline
Mike "Mish" Shedlock @MishGEA
33K Followers 2K Following https://t.co/bwBAtHj9nn On my “MishTalk” blog, I write about global economy. Topics include interest rates, central bank policy, gold, and stocks.
DDavydoff @d_davydoff
108 Followers 2K Following Investment advisor to select family offices. All posts are for my personal use only and not intended to influence or prompt conclusions by others on X.
Nick Colas & Jessica ... @DataTrekMB
17K Followers 883 Following Your daily guide to markets, data and disruption. Start a 2-week FREE trial on our site to receive one of Wall Street's most followed daily market commentaries!
Zeke Ashton @ZAshtonCap
37 Followers 89 Following
Paper Chaser @InvesterinGurun
20K Followers 501 Following Colosseum Global Alpha - Twittrar i egenskap av privatperson, inga åsikter eller påståenden ska förknippas med min arbetsgivare ISEC Services AB
SixSigmaCapital @SixSigmaCapital
54K Followers 757 Following Stock Market Participant | Emergency Doctor Live portfolio updates, actionable ideas and market memos posted at https://t.co/3G8H0mf4x1
Jim Paulsen @jimwpaulsen
6K Followers 990 Following PhD economist by training. 40 years as a Chief Investment Strategist still following the economy & financial markets at https://t.co/XFuESv9MaD
Balaji @balajis
1.8M Followers 4K Following Author of the Network State. Founder of the Network School.
Steve Hilton @SteveHiltonx
441K Followers 296 Following Candidate for California governor. Fighting for working people and small business. $3.00 gas/A home you can afford/End insane bureaucracy! Change is Coming ☀️
Phil Magness @PhilWMagness
49K Followers 3K Following Economic historian @independentinst. Opinions = my own. Co-author of the most comprehensive study ever done on the question of "what is neoliberalism?"
Pixel Research @Pixelresearch_
925 Followers 495 Following Finance student in my 20s, I provide coverage of the sub-$2B small-caps. High-conviction stock research, Macro Analysis and Interviews! My DMs are always open!
VolSignals @VolSignals
40K Followers 1K Following Career SPX market maker. See how options move markets with VS3D™ by VolSignals— the only dealer hedging flows platform built entirely by market makers.
Aziz Sunderji @AzizSunderji
4K Followers 2K Following Analyzing housing & the economy at https://t.co/N9hbHKtBJv Formerly Strategy Research at Barclays Investment Bank (credit/macro/EM); reporting @WSJ
Q-Cap @qcapital2020
69K Followers 1K Following • Art of Satire • Grift Detective • No Investment Advice • Nothing to Sell • Personal Views Only • Best Tweets are Deleted • Personal Diary sometimes Diarrhea
Quality Equities @qualityequities
10K Followers 1K Following Investing in a concentrated portfolio of the highest quality companies in the world. All opinions my own. Not financial advice.
Trep @treppei
564 Followers 926 Following Curious, Read, Hike, Investor, brutally honest, fix things & easily annoyed!
JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1
5K Followers 187 Following Founder of @7thkeyfinancial • Market Technician • Securities Licensed since 1998 • Husband • Father of 6 • Follower of Christ • Proverbs 3: 5-6
LifeisGood Capital @LIGCapital_
435 Followers 1K Following SP, Brazil. Research Analyst, Partner at Global LO Fund
Morgan Barrett @MorganBarrettX
8K Followers 2K Following VC Lawyer/Angel Investing/Running Tech Breakfast Club in NYC/SF/El Segundo
Price to Tangible Bru... @Tangible_Bruce
308 Followers 329 Following I'm Bruce, a deep value investor. Buying what most investors don't like across global public markets.
Adam Singer @AdamSinger
89K Followers 2K Following VP marketing @AdQuick. Philosophy/culture blogger. Music composer
Peter St Onge, Ph.D. @profstonge
307K Followers 13K Following Daily Videos on Economics and Freedom. Ex-professor, ex-bartender. Austrian economics. Weekly articles at https://t.co/kD3fDmtXws
Value Options Letter @ValueOptionsLtr
29 Followers 141 Following Weekly options-income research for serious self-directed investors. Value-lens, live track record, real trades. Free primer → https://t.co/hudn0gQmz7
Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters
82K Followers 995 Following unapologetic believer in American exceptionalism 🇺🇸 founder @legionhealth prev @mckinsey @princeton
Rose Celine Investmen... @realroseceline
23K Followers 5K Following Equity investor sharing wisdom. I am not your advisor.🌹
Roman Helmet Guy @romanhelmetguy
121K Followers 1K Following Tribune of the Plebs. Do not click, dangerous history 👇
George Hadjia @GHadjia
11K Followers 2K Following Founder & Chief Investment Officer - Bristlemoon Capital Global L/S equities Subscribe https://t.co/qMdR4HXhka Views not investment advice
Jack Raines @Jack_Raines
73K Followers 3K Following Wrote a book about status games, opportunity costs and the stage-specificity of life. Pre-order your copy here: https://t.co/gvhMr8mxPL
Thierry from arvy �... @ThierryBorgeat
28K Followers 697 Following CFA | Quality stocks | Deep dives on compounders, market cycles & investor psychology | 12k+ readers | #IBDPartner
Wealth M&A Insider @wealthMAinsider
3K Followers 314 Following Current: M&A at PE backed Wealth & Retirement Aggregator | Prior: Inst Allocator + Asset Mgmt (DFA) | Focused on PE trends, Markets, and some fun.
Joe Lonsdale @JTLonsdale
296K Followers 511 Following I'm an entrepreneur, investor, & philanthropist. I founded @PalantirTech @Addepar @UAustinOrg @8VC & other mission-driven orgs. Bold policy @InstituteCicero
Build Australia @build_aus
6K Followers 1 Following On a mission to reignite Australian industry, creativity, and ambition. Join us - It’s time to #BuildAustralia
Denison Mines Corp. @DenisonMinesCo
14K Followers 2K Following On the path to becoming the next Canadian uranium producer. TSX: DML | NYSE American: DNNYou might like
