Tobias Carlisle @Greenbackd
Founder, https://t.co/rjHtXEyEjy | $ZIG & $DEEP ETFs | Author, Acquirer's Multiple (https://t.co/84Cyi4YgrD) acquirersmultiple.com Los Angeles, CA 🇺🇲🇦🇺🦘 Joined February 2009-
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"They track like six or seven different market level valuation metrics...every single one of them is, and collectively they're at their most overvalued in the dataset." "It's tempting to look at those market valuations and get scared out of the market. And that's a mistake." Tobias Carlisle on an extremely expensive market, and the danger of reacting to it in the wrong way.
Analysts collectively expect S&P 500 earnings to compound at ~24% annually for five years, roughly double their historical norm. The current spike is higher than any prior point in the 40-year series, including the Dot Com peak of ~19% around 2000–2001 and the 2020/21 Meme Stock peak ~24%. It's a sentiment indicator, not a forecast you should trust. Analysts are notoriously bad at five-year earnings projections, and the estimates tend to be most wrong precisely when they're most extreme. A 24% sustained growth rate for the entire index is historically very rare to actually deliver.
The large cap Russell 1000 Growth index relative to the small cap Russell 2000 Value index appears to have failed at both the 1999 and 2020 resistance levels and has suddenly found itself breaking below support that dates to 1980, 1991 and 1992.
Pure risk appetite inside the S&P 500. SPHBI is the S&P 500 High Beta Index—the 100 stocks in the S&P 500 most sensitive to market moves (they rise and fall harder than the index). SPLVI is the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index—the 100 most stable, defensive names. The market is unambiguously risk-on, and at an extreme. Investors are aggressively favoring the most volatile, highest-beta names over defensive ones, and they've been doing so for the better part of a year (+67% ROC). This is what a strong, momentum-driven bull market looks like under the hood: big risk appetite, defensives left behind. The extremity is double-edged. The two prior times this ROC spiked to similar heights (2010 and 2021) both marked moments where the high-beta leadership soon stalled or reversed. A ratio at all-time highs with a near-record one-year surge says the trade is crowded and stretched, not that it's about to end, but historically these readings are where the risk/reward of chasing high beta gets worse.
Relentless speculation in junk smalls. $IWM tracks the Russell 2000, the broadest US small-cap index. It includes essentially all small companies, profitable or not. $VIOO tracks the S&P SmallCap 600, which applies a quality screen. Companies generally need positive earnings to be admitted. That single difference is the whole story of this chart: IWM is the "everything" small-cap basket, VIOO is the "profitable-only" small-cap basket. Money is rotating away from the safety of profitable small caps and into the broader, lower-quality Russell 2000, chasing the more speculative, often unprofitable names. Historically this kind of "dash for trash" within small caps is a risk-on signal: it tends to appear in strong, late-stage bullish phases when investors are reaching for beta and risk appetite is high.
Energy and tech almost never win at the same time. There's a clean mechanical reason. Tech is a long-duration asset. It lives and dies by the discount rate. Low yields, cheap liquidity, that's the paradise where a rich software multiple expands. The 2010s were exactly that.
The US stock market is expensive by any metric.
🔴The US stock market has never been this expensive across so many metrics simultaneously: The Trailing P/E ratio stands at ~30x, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The Shiller P/E, or CAPE ratio, stands at ~40x, also the 2nd-highest on record behind only the 2000 peak
I like to think this is the sort of joke Greenspan would have appreciated.
Energy and commodity investor John Love on: * AI Needs Trillions In Infrastructure Spending * Is Natural Gas The Next AI Trade? * Is AI Creating A New Commodity Supercycle? * Will SpaceX Build AI Data Centres In Space? * The World Is Running Out Of Copper * Copper Could Face A 15-Year Supply Crisis * The Bamboo Lesson Every Investor Needs To Learn * The Biggest Investment Opportunity Nobody Is Talking About
VALUE: After Hours (S08 E21): Is Copper the New Oil? USCF's John Love on the Metal Fueling the EV and AI Revolutions. Here's the full episode: acquirersmultiple.com/?p=54682
Ha.
"Every single person who critiques this, including some super smart people, says, 'The risk isn't volatility. The risk is the permanent loss of capital.' To which I always respond, 'No sh*t. You swear to me that this loss of capital is not permanent? I agree, it's not risk. Can
Best S&P 500 earnings revisions in more than 5 years... but are we near peak-earnings? @WisdomTreeFunds
The S&P 500 is effectively half tech @WisdomTreeFunds
Wild.
This chart becomes even more insane once you realize the y-axis is on a log scale. These are exponentials.
Everyone thinks their overvalued growth stock is going to grow eternally exponentially. There's never not a reason...
@ReformedTrader Interesting. Possible.
Unusual.
Here's what's driving it. And it's the kind of number that only shows up at extremes. Momentum stocks just went full tilt. The spread between momentum and low-volatility names hit a 5-standard-deviation overshoot above trend. The largest in the history of the series. Five sigma
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