Edge comes from data, not headlines | Data scientist breaking down earnings, setups & catalysts | Must-read in highlights 📌open.substack.com/pub/turynnotes New YorkJoined July 2025
I can't think of anything to analyze. $MU $SPY
The market is very resilient. As I said before, when a dip you expect doesn't happen, the market is highly likely to go the other way.
Yields are high, and even Bessent needs to announce buybacks to keep them under control. Intervention is a bad signal—it implies policies have failed to some extent.
Macro is just not bullish for tech stocks.
You already know higher yields affect tech valuations, so you shouldn't be surprised the market isn't continuing to surge. But it isn't dipping either.
So I'm just waiting and avoiding unnecessary trades.
I expected $MU to run hard after earnings. It didn't. It now needs a catalyst more bullish than earnings to push above $1150. A clean, sharp surge above $1150 would open the path to $1200 or ATH. On weekly chart, $MU is not showing that it will have a clean breakout in the next one or two weeks.
The Trump-Xi meeting, as expected, delivered nothing. If you've followed me long enough, you know any mass $NVDA chip shipments, including a China-specific version, are impossible. Don't fall for it. US-China relations won't get better or worse. That's just how it works. China is counting on Huawei, and the US needs to maintain a generation lead. I'm no politics expert, but I won't buy tech stocks based on the relationship between the two countries.
So, don’t get terrified about the consolidation here.
If you are not confident with the AI stocks, I don’t know what stocks you should be buying… $LULU , $LLY ?
$META & MICROSOFT ARE CUTTING INTERNAL CLAUDE USE AS THEY PUSH THEIR OWN AI TOOLS
Meta and $MSFT, two major Anthropic customers, are reducing employee use of Claude, according to The Information.
Microsoft had been on pace to spend at least $1B annually on internal Anthropic
$MU reports today. Someone will hear "slower price increases" on the call and declare the memory shortage over. Don't fall for it.
The guide is $50B revenue, 86% gross margin, $31 EPS. The Street is already sitting above the midpoint. The quarter will likely clear the bar. The FQ1 guide sets the stock.
Management already told us price increases will moderate. That's not the shortage ending. That's prices holding at record levels. Push them much higher and AI projects get cancelled. "Hold here" is the healthy scenario. Also remember FQ4 had 14 weeks, so sequential growth next quarter can look softer than it really is.
The real signal is the LTAs. 14 customers, about $100B of revenue locked in at floor prices, and around $10B in deposits expected this quarter. Nobody prepays $10B for something they think is about to get cheap.
And the demand side is a flywheel. $NVDA makes tokens cheaper. Cheaper tokens make AI bigger. Bigger AI needs more memory. Price per token goes down, tokens per task go way up. Inference is usually limited by memory bandwidth, not compute, which is why HBM per GPU went from 80GB on the H100 to 288GB on the B300.
The memory trio grows supply about 20% a year. AI demand is growing way faster than that. That gap doesn't close on an earnings call.
What matters on the call: December quarter DRAM pricing, HBM4 qualification progress, and any update on LTA deposits.
Short-term noise. Long-term trend. Thesis unchanged.
$MU Very rare to see a weekly chart squeezing like this…
Major movement is coming…
Earnings will have a great impact on its trend into year-end.
If the market is extremely satisfied with the earnings, $1600 should be very easy…
$MU $1080 has rejected every push this week. $1036 is the level that matters now.
I was expecting a bigger squeeze before Wednesday. But macro and institutions already placed their bets last week, and we are seeing profit taking before the open. Let's see where it closes today.
$SPY mortgage rates rising. Bond yields rising. The Fed is letting the market decide rates. And $SPY is still holding its 20MA.
People say macro drives everything now and technical analysis is useless. I don't fully agree.
As a retail trader, you can't beat the quants and the algos that trade the second the data hits. By the time you place your order, the move is already done. Your only other option is to adjust your position before the news drops, and that's pure gambling.
Look at Liberation Day in April 2025. If you waited for the news to trade, you were already too late. The algos had dumped the market before you could even react. And if you panic-sold ahead of it, you probably didn't have the guts to buy the dip, which is where the real money was made.
Macro matters. But the chart shows how the market is actually reacting to it. That's the foundation.
Right now, nobody really knows what comes next. I'm not ignoring the news, I'm watching the reaction. $SPY is still above the $756 and $746 support levels. $VIX is still below 20. No deep panic, even with bearish macro. Price is still holding the 20MA.
Next levels to watch are $760 and $756. A break below on heavy volume, with news that actually changes the long-term outlook, and it's time to rethink the trend.
Zoom out to the monthly chart on $SPY or $QQQ . In the last 30 years we've had some real crashes, and every single time it came back to new all-time highs. Trump said it best: if you're not selling, you're not losing money. Sounds funny, but it's true.
Until then, year-end target stays at $800, about 3.3% above the $775 resistance. Thesis unchanged.
$MU $1080 has rejected every push this week. $1036 is the level that matters now.
I was expecting a bigger squeeze before Wednesday. But macro and institutions already placed their bets last week, and we are seeing profit taking before the open. Let's see where it closes today.
If we don't get a reversal today and a sharp squeeze up before Tuesday's close, a huge gap up on Wednesday gets much harder.
$MU sold off hard overnight. Looks like market is not betting on a big Trump-Xi deal.
As I mentioned before, there is no official press conference on the agenda and very limited time for talks. Hard to expect a major agreement out of this.
Negotiations are still ongoing. This looks more like a courtesy meeting to set the tone for the next rounds on AI, trade, and tariffs.
Key support at $1,036. Hold it and this is just nerves. Lose it and the door opens to more downside.
Let's see how it goes today.
$NVDA $INTC
$AAPL just posted an ATH close on the weekly chart. Most people missed it.
Momentum is shifting. Target is $342.7, where $AAPL rejoins the $5T market cap club. That's only 1.95% from here.
Short term, money may rotate into semis early in the week. But $COST earnings could
$AMD Did you buy the dip?
$460 has proven to be a very strong support level again and again. Price bounced right off it and the structure remains intact.
Target is $616 by end of 2026, where $AMD hits $1T market cap. That's about 10% from here.
$MU here's a rule of thumb. When everyone expects a hard dip and it doesn't come, a surge is usually next.
$MU had a rough week but held the 50MA. Symmetric triangle usually implies a major move with no clear direction, but a sharp dip is not in the cards for Micron.
Bulls
$AAPL just posted an ATH close on the weekly chart. Most people missed it.
Momentum is shifting. Target is $342.7, where $AAPL rejoins the $5T market cap club. That's only 1.95% from here.
Short term, money may rotate into semis early in the week. But $COST earnings could confirm the consumer spending trend, and if it does, $AAPL benefits directly.
$NVDA two green candles after BOJ finally addressed the rate hike. The bleeding stopped, for now.
MACD is improving. The $212 to $224 consolidation range is still valid.
Trump-Xi meeting is coming up. From the weekend news, some agreements may be reached, but there is no formal
$MU here's a rule of thumb. When everyone expects a hard dip and it doesn't come, a surge is usually next.
$MU had a rough week but held the 50MA. Symmetric triangle usually implies a major move with no clear direction, but a sharp dip is not in the cards for Micron.
Bulls refused to let it dip. A squeeze before earnings should be expected.
Weekly close was very strong, preventing a bearish MACD cross from forming. But it is not out of the woods. Post-earnings volatility is real, and locking some short-term gains before the report is not a bad idea.
You don't have to make every penny out of one stock.
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