Toma Savițki | Economics, Data & Tech @Varcolacus

@Teo_Sinamin The check worth running here is the mirror. Chinese exports going to zero for Dy/Tb to Japan does not mean zero arriving - re-export legs are one of the main reasons the two sides of a flow disagree. Does Japan import data show the same zero, or third-country origins?

@IGWTreport @Bruegel_org Same source I work from (CEPII BACI). Worth splitting those two China numbers: different chokepoints, often different countries. Cobalt is DRC 74% mined vs China 82% refined. Rare-earth magnets are China at both stages, 69% and 84% - the harder one to route around.

Dijet, a Japanese tungsten carbide producer revised it's FY27 forecast earnings, up 175% as compared to its previous forecast. The company has given the reason that although the purchase price of raw materials(Tungsten) has risen substantially, the cost assigned to materials consumed is calculated using the moving-average method, which includes raw-material inventory purchased before the price surge. Consequently, the effect of higher raw-material prices on costs remains limited at present, contributing to increases in profits. Although costs are expected to increase significantly in the future, the company has reviewed the current order environment and now expects each measure of profit for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027 to exceed the previously announced forecast. The full-year consolidated earnings forecast has therefore been revised. Seems to be aligned with that I was thinking. Many were beaten down, but their inventory bought prior to the price surge is now delivering monstrous profits.

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Method, all 32 materials, and the reconciliation engine behind it: varcolacus.github.io/critical-mater…

Each dot starts at what a country mines, then moves to what it exports. The distance is what customs data gets wrong about where critical materials come from. 18 of 32 materials: the top exporter is not the top miner. Kazakhstan exports 89% of world beryllium, and mines none.

⚗️🇺🇸 ReElement Technologies just proved its chromatography-based refining platform works at COMMERCIAL scale, first germanium column commissioned in Indiana. Rare earths are next in 2027. 🧵 x.com/roblun1/status… 🏭 The Milestone ReElement has successfully commissioned and operated its first commercial-scale germanium production column at its Marion, Indiana facility, validating that its demand-aligned, chromatography-based refining platform can move from lab and pilot scale straight to full commercial operations. 🔬 Why This Isn't Just a Tech Demo This is de-risking, not just proof-of-concept. The successful commissioning validates the largest chromatography columns ReElement intends to deploy across its own facilities and future partner locations, meaning the scale-up playbook is now proven, not theoretical. ⚙️ Platform: multi-element, chromatography-based separation 🎯 Model: modular, de-risked, aligned directly with partner/customer demand 📈 Status: moved from laboratory → pilot → commercial-scale validation 🔧 What Comes Next Focus now shifts to commissioning the remaining Phase I production lines at Marion, continuing the transition into dedicated commercial production. 🚀 Rare earths are next, ReElement has flagged rare earth element refining on this same platform for 2027 🌍 Why It Matters Germanium is itself a critical mineral choke point, heavily China-dominated and used in semiconductors, fiber optics, and infrared optics. Proving out commercial-scale chromatographic separation on germanium first gives ReElement a validated, replicable process architecture it can now point directly at the much bigger prize: high-purity individual rare earth oxides, without relying on traditional Chinese solvent extraction. 👀 @ReElementTech @Amerresources #ReElement #Germanium #RareEarths #CriticalMinerals #Chromatography #Refining #Indiana #Reshoring #SupplyChain #CriticalMaterials #AmericaFirst #Semiconductors #Manufacturing #EnergySecurity

⚗️ NdPr DyTb | Rare Earths ⛏️⚗️🔥🔬🧲 Analyst ⭐ @roblun1

a month ago

🧪 SEPARATION TECH SERIES #3: The Chromatography Breakthrough Ending China's Chokehold ⚛️ ⚗️ 3/6 | LIGAND-ASSISTED DISPLACEMENT (LAD) CHROMATOGRAPHY No kerosene. No VOCs. No organophosphorus extractants. EDTA chelating ligands on titania sorbent. A displacer molecule

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Visualization of the Maxwell–Boltzmann speed distribution. Showing how the same 300 argon atoms produce a finite-sample histogram while the smooth line gives the exact equilibrium distribution. f(v;T) = 4π(m/2πk_BT)^(3/2)v² exp(−mv²/2k_BT) Temperature does not give every atom the same speed. As the gas is heated, the distribution broadens and shifts toward higher speeds while its total area remains equal to one. The most probable, mean, and RMS speeds all increase in proportion to √T.

🎙️ What has changed for gold over the last 20 years? Ed Coyne welcomes back Ronnie Stöferle to discuss the 20th anniversary edition of the In Gold We Trust report, Back to the Monetary Future. Together, they explore gold’s evolution as a monetary asset, the impact of central bank buying and how perspectives on gold’s role in modern portfolios have shifted over time. The conversation also examines why gold’s simplicity, liquidity and lack of counterparty risk may be increasingly relevant in today’s uncertain financial landscape. sprott.com/podcast/ep97/

BREAKING NEWS - #China MOFCOM released list of approved companies to export #Tungsten #Antimony & #Silver If you've read my recent posts, you'll know why this is a HUGE NEWS. Supply will be tighter than ever! The flood gates are opened! wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/…

Glass Capsule Anchor

𝗥𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘀 & 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: 𝖳𝗁𝗋𝖾𝖾 𝗌𝗂𝗀𝗇𝖺𝗅𝗌 𝗍𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗐𝖾𝖾𝗄: 𝖿𝗂𝗇𝖺𝗇𝖼𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗆𝗉𝗋𝗈𝗏𝗂𝗇𝗀, 𝖢𝗁𝗂𝗇𝖺 𝗂𝗌 𝗍𝗂𝗀𝗁𝗍𝖾𝗇𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝗍𝗋𝗈𝗅, 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗁𝖾𝖺𝗏𝗒 𝗋𝖺𝗋𝖾 𝖾𝖺𝗋𝗍𝗁 𝗋𝗂𝗌𝗄 𝗋𝖾𝗆𝖺𝗂𝗇𝗌 𝖾𝗅𝖾𝗏𝖺𝗍𝖾𝖽. 𝖶𝖾𝗌𝗍𝖾𝗋𝗇 𝖼𝖺𝗉𝖺𝖼𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗂𝗌 𝖻𝖾𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗆𝗈𝗋𝖾 𝗍𝖺𝗇𝗀𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾. 𝖢𝗁𝗂𝗇𝖺’𝗌 𝖺𝖽𝗏𝖺𝗇𝗍𝖺𝗀𝖾 𝗂𝗌 𝖻𝖾𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗆𝗈𝗋𝖾 𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗋𝖾𝗇𝖼𝗁𝖾𝖽. @USARareEarth #RareEarths #CriticalMinerals #NdFeB #Magnets #SupplyChain #IndustrialPolicy #Defense #EnergyTransition

A double pendulum riding a Spring Atwood machine 👇 Just a few extra terms in the Lagrangian take the motion from periodic to chaotic. AI agents + MATLAB sped up the workflow: derive, solve, animate, iterate.

Touché

Robert Friedland @robert_ivanhoe

a week ago

Why copper is so unique…

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China's rare earth exports to Japan plunge 51pc for first half: Nikkei Shipments of seven categories of controlled rare-earth materials from China to Japan plunged 51 percent year-on-year for the first six months of this year, higher than the 16 percent drop in overall exports to the global market, Nikkei reported, citing data from the General Administration of Customs of China. China's exports of rare earth to the US also fell 28 percent, the report said. For June alone, the decline of China's exports of seven controlled rare earths reached 81 percent from a year ago, with yttrium exports dropping to zero. China's rare earth exports to Japan have fallen for four consecutive months since March.  Notably, exports of dysprosium and terbium, which are used in the manufacture of electric vehicle motors, high-performance magnets, and defense equipment, have both recorded zero for Japan since the beginning of this year. This came as the Ministry of Commerce introduced a licensing system in April last year to regulate exports of seven rare earths, requiring exporters to declare the use and customer information. Chinese authorities still issue licenses on occasion, aiming to avoid completely cutting supply sources for Japanese companies, according to the report. However, the measure of controlling supply may also prompt the Japanese business community to push their government to place greater importance on relations with China.

The latest $UAMY earnings highlight a much larger… and frankly frightening issue for the United States: How are domestic companies specializing in critical minerals supposed to survive when prices are this volatile and China holds enormous influence over the global market? Antimony Prices: 08/26 — ~$27,000/ton 02/26 — ~$40,000/ton 08/25 — ~$58,000/ton 02/25 — ~$45,000/ton 08/24 — ~$23,000/ton In only two years, Western antimony prices exploded from approximately $23,000 per tonne to nearly $60,000… then crashed back to around $27,000. Meanwhile, antimony didn’t suddenly become less strategically important. This isn’t a children’s toy. Antimony is essential for ammunition primers, tracer rounds, explosives, military-grade flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and specialized infrared and semiconductor technologies. $UAMY operates the only significant antimony smelter in the United States and remains the country’s only significant domestic producer. If the company fails, America risks losing the only meaningful antimony production and processing capability it currently has at home. The national-security implications could be massive. I’m not selling or panicking over one bad quarter. $UAMY remains one of my smallest holdings, and I wouldn’t mind having additional time to build the position. But the earnings raise a legitimate question: Can $UAMY survive another major decline in antimony prices without additional government intervention? If antimony is truly critical to national security, the government cannot expect one small public company to maintain America’s domestic capability while being completely exposed to a market that China can heavily influence. Long-term government purchase commitments, strategic-stockpile contracts, price floors, grants, or direct investment may not simply be incentives… they may be necessary to ensure the United States doesn’t lose this capability altogether. These are interesting times folks. We are watching history unfold in real time.

Montana Magnet @USAC_Bull

18 hours ago

🚨 UPDATE: $UAMY CUTS FY26 GUIDANCE $60M - $75M, down from $125. 40%-52% reduction after reiterating $125M guidance not once, but TWICE. No sugarcoating this. Absolutely inexcusable execution. Complete failure to scale.

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The F-35 just had its biggest year ever, 191 jets delivered in 2025. Every one of them flies on rare earth magnets. And from 1 January 2027, those magnets can't touch China anywhere in the supply chain. That deadline is barely four months away. 🧵👇 ✈️ Lockheed Martin confirmed 2025 as the F-35 program's record year: 191 aircraft delivered, smashing the previous record of 142 set in 2021 and nearly doubling 2024's 110. Production is now running five times faster than any other allied fighter in production. The fleet passed one million flight hours in March 2025, stands at roughly 1,300 jets across 12 countries, and Lockheed booked a $24.3 billion contract for 296 more aircraft in Lots 18 and 19. 🧲 Rare earth magnets are everywhere in this jet. Samarium-cobalt (SmCo) magnets, prized for holding their magnetism at extreme temperatures, sit in the engine starter-generator and turbomachine permanent magnet generator. Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, doped with dysprosium and terbium for heat resistance, drive the electric flight-control actuators moving the rudders, flaperons and horizontal tails. ✈️ 📡More again in the AN/APG-81 AESA radar, electronic warfare systems and helmet-mounted display electronics.🖥️ ⚖️ Now the number everyone quotes, and gets wrong. For over a decade, congressional testimony and even DoD publications have cited "920 pounds (417 kg) of rare earths per F-35." An Adamas Intelligence engineering audit published in April 2026 took that figure apart: the only repeatedly corroborated number is ~23 kg (50 lb) of SmCo magnet alloy per aircraft, roughly 5.3–6.5 kg of pure samarium, plus an estimated 8–20 kg of NdFeB alloy across dozens of smaller units. 👇 x.com/roblun1/status… 🧲Realistic total: 40–70 kg of finished magnet material and 11–20 kg of pure rare earth elements per jet. That's 3–4% of the meme number, and it changes nothing strategically, because the grades involved (high-temperature SmCo and heavy-rare-earth-doped NdFeB) are precisely the ones the West can barely make. ⏰ Which brings us to the clock. Under 10 U.S.C. 4872 and DFARS 252.225-7052, defence contractors are already barred from delivering SmCo or NdFeB magnets melted or produced in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. 📅From 1 January 2027, the restriction extends to the entire supply chain, mined, refined, separated, melted or produced, from the ore (recycled feedstock included) all the way to the finished magnet. 🇺🇸👨‍💼And President Trump's July 20 executive order closed the "non-availability waiver" loophole primes have leaned on for years, while mandating full supply-chain mapping from raw material to end product. 🇺🇸🏭 Multiply 191 jets a year by even the honest magnet numbers, add every missile, ship, drone and radar drawing on the same materials, and you see why Washington is suddenly writing cheques for mines, separation plants and magnet factories. ♻️🧲Note the detail most people miss: recycled material counts as feedstock under the rule, so even recyclers have to prove where every gram originated. Provenance is now a weapons-grade requirement. 🧲 #RareEarths #F35 #CriticalMinerals #SmCo #NdFeB #Magnets #Defense #SupplyChain #LockheedMartin

⚗️ NdPr DyTb | Rare Earths ⛏️⚗️🔥🔬🧲 Analyst ⭐ @roblun1

3 months ago

🛡️ The F-35's "920-lb rare earth" myth refuses to die — and it's distorting the entire defence supply chain debate. Thread 🧵I find this very interesting For over a decade the same number has circulated in Congressional reports, DoD briefings and investor decks: ≈920 lbs (418

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Lynas’ commitment to sustainable production & to supporting the development of a vibrant outside China RE supply chain features in this @WSJ video. Great to see our CEO @AmandaLacaze & members of the Mt Weld team feature on.wsj.com/2Rp4RiM

Today, we announced a significant milestone in our Texas Round Top mine project! USA Rare Earth has successfully produced a sample of dysprosium oxide (Dy₂O₃) with a purity of 99.1 wt.%. Learn why this matters in the link below.⬇️ globenewswire.com/news-release/2… #cleantech

"MP also announced a new agreement with an undisclosed large aerospace and defense contractor worth hundreds of millions to provide it with gadolinium. That’s a so-called heavier rare-earth metal that ends up in high-performance alloys for jet engines and lasers, among other applications." 👇 barrons.com/articles/mp-ma…

Space can curve so triangles no longer sum to 180°. Spherical (Ω₀ > 1): positive curvature, closed universe; a + b + c > 180°. Geodesics converge. Flat (Ω₀ = 1): zero curvature; a + b + c = 180°. Parallels stay parallel. Hyperbolic (Ω₀ < 1): negative curvature, open universe; a + b + c < 180°. Geodesics diverge. Ω₀ = actual density / critical density alone fixes the geometry and cosmic fate. CMB measurements already constrain it; the answer decides whether the universe will expand forever or recollapse.