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Despite a barrage of alarming headlines, State Street's Matthew Bartolini believes the multi-year rally in risk assets remains intact. As hyperscalers and technology companies invest billions in chips, data centers, and AI innovation, that spending is helping support corporate earnings across the ecosystem. While the costs of those investments are spread out over time, the companies supplying the infrastructure are recording that spending as revenue today. Do you think AI spending will continue to support markets through the second half of 2026?
What are you watching most in the PCE report?
This week’s key economic report: PCE inflation. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge comes out Thursday, and investors will be watching closely after last week’s FOMC update suggested a possible rate hike later this year. But with oil prices falling, inflation pressure could ease.
All eyes are on Micron $MU. The AI memory leader reports earnings Wednesday after the close, giving investors another look at demand across the AI ecosystem. With AI-related earnings helping fuel this year's rally, Micron's results could offer important insight into where the industry is headed next.
"While we are in the midst of an AI boom, we are also in the midst of a small-cap renaissance." — @KevinMatras The Russell 2000 is up 21.1% year to date and continues to make new all-time highs. Could small caps be the next major leadership group for this bull market?
Bull of the Day: Liquidia $LQDA • The commercial-stage biotech is seeing accelerating momentum, with current-year sales expected to surge 315% and EPS estimates up 98%. LQDA currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Bear of the Day: Goodyear $GT • Weak tire demand, declining sales, and steep earnings estimate cuts continue to pressure the stock. GT currently holds a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Do you think the Fed will end up raising rates this year?
The Fed left interest rates unchanged, but latest projections call for: • A possible 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026 • A rate cut in 2027 • Another rate cut in 2028 Meanwhile, lower oil prices and easing Middle East tensions could influence future inflation forecasts.
Retail sales came in stronger than expected. Latest data: • Retail Sales: +0.9% m/m vs. +0.5% expected • Ex-Vehicles: +0.8% vs. +0.5% expected • Pending Home Sales: +3.8% vs. +0.9% expected The data suggests consumer spending and housing activity remain more resilient than many expected.
The U.S.-Iran peace agreement continues to move forward. The official signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, while implementation details will be negotiated over the next 60 days. Meanwhile, ships have reportedly begun moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, and crude oil has fallen more than 35% from its April conflict high. Which market impact could be most significant?
Housing data came in weaker than expected. Latest numbers: • Housing Starts: 1.177M vs. 1.430M expected • Building Permits: 1.413M vs. 1.427M expected The housing market remains a key area to watch as higher rates continue to impact activity.
SpaceX $SPCX continues to make headlines. Since its IPO at $135/share, the stock has climbed nearly 50%, closing at $201.80 yesterday. Additional developments: • Underwriters fully exercised the Greenshoe option • SpaceX announced plans to acquire AI coding assistant Cursor • The company continues expanding its broader ecosystem alongside Starlink and xAI Is SpaceX a buy after its massive post-IPO run?
Do you expect the Fed's outlook to change this week?
This week's main event: the Federal Reserve. The Fed's two-day FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday and marks the first meeting led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Investors will be watching for: • Interest rate guidance • Updated economic projections (SEP) • Inflation outlook • Potential timing of future rate cuts
Latest data: • Consumer Sentiment Index: 48.9 vs. 44.8 prior • Expected: 46.0 • 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.6% vs. 4.8% prior The data suggests consumers are feeling slightly more optimistic while inflation expectations eased modestly.
Bear of the Day: $RH Tariff pressures, supply chain challenges, and a sluggish housing market continue to weigh on the luxury home furnishings retailer. RH currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Bull of the Day: $CAT The industrial giant is benefiting from AI-driven power demand, a record $63 billion backlog, and growing adoption of autonomous mining technology. CAT currently holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
SpaceX $SPCX made history in its public market debut. Key IPO highlights: • Opened at $150/share • Reached a high of $176.52 • Closed at $160.95 (+19.2%) • Valuation exceeded $2 trillion The largest IPO in history also made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. Today marks SpaceX's second trading day, with investors closely watching whether momentum continues.
While volatility has picked up, pullbacks are a normal part of every bull market. Historically, pullbacks occur several times per year and have typically been short-lived.
Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance
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