Max @_MaxMin_

GS oil tracker #oott #iran

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

I’m a little surprised to see the speculative flows into semiconductor ETFs be as sticky as they are. While the AUM of these ETFs is way down, the flows have not really reversed. I’m no expert on semis but I can spot a cycle when I see one. While the earnings momentum remains strong, we are “due” for a cycle peak relatively soon. Perhaps we are about to reach peak rate-of-change.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Institutional investors are dumping US tech equities: Hedge funds, asset managers, and other institutional investors sold -$21.6 billion of Nasdaq futures during the week ending August 4th, the largest weekly sale on record, according to Goldman Sachs. Short sales dominated the move, accounting for 72% of total sales. Hedge funds sold -$11.9 billion over this period while asset managers sold -$7.4 billion. As a result, combined institutional investor positioning in Nasdaq futures fell to -$5 billion, turning negative for the first time since May 2025. By comparison, this figure was as high as +$54 billion in October 2025. Institutional investors are selling into market strength.

Chinese investors are rotating back into gold: China's gold-backed ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive daily inflows ending Monday, the longest streak since March. Over this period, these funds have attracted +$1.2 billion. The largest single-day inflow during this streak totaled +$370 million. Before this rebound, China's gold-backed ETFs recorded outflows in 38 of 44 trading sessions. This comes as elevated volatility in China's stock market has renewed interest in alternative assets, particularly among institutional investors. Chinese investors are increasingly bullish on gold.

The economy is hardly “struggling.” Cyclical macro data is the strongest and broadest we’ve seen since 2021. And earnings are 🚀. Are we looking at the same economy?

Mark Zandi @Markzandi

a week ago

There’s no sugar coating the overarching message in the July jobs report – the economy is struggling. Job growth is at a virtual standstill, and concentrated in a few sectors. While unemployment is low, that’s only because those losing their jobs are leaving the workforce, too

266 642 2K 231K 240

Morgan Stanley mapped out the entire AI infrastructure supply chain and it reveals who actually gets paid at every layer of the trillion dollar buildout (Save this). This heatmap breaks the AI infrastructure value chain into two dimensions those who owns and operates the data centers at the top and what physical and technical components get built underneath to make those data centers function. At the top sit the owners/operators, the hyperscalers like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, alongside data center REITs, private equity giants like Blackstone and Brookfield, enterprises and neoclouds including CoreWeave and Nebius. These are the companies writing the massive capex checks that fund everything below them. Below that sits the actual build out, split into seven layers, semi production, processors, server components, servers, network, internal power/cooling and power supply. Semiconductor production is dominated by names your audience already knows well, Nvidia and AMD for GPUs, TSMC adjacent foundries, ASML and Applied Materials for capital equipment, and Micron and SK Hynix under memory/storage. But the less obvious money is in the physical infrastructure layers most retail investors never look at. Server components include passive parts from Yageo and Murata, thermal solutions from Sanyo Denki, and PCB substrates from companies like Unimicron. Network infrastructure includes InfiniBand and Ethernet gear from Nvidia and Arista, plus optical/DCI routing from Cisco and Ciena. Internal power and cooling is arguably the most underappreciated category here. It includes liquid cooling specialists like Vertiv and CoolIT, power electronics from Siemens and Eaton, and uninterruptible power supply makers like ABB and Legrand, all companies solving the literal heat and electricity problem created by cramming more GPUs into less space. So who benefits from all of this? Everyone in every box benefits in some way but the real insight is that value doesn't concentrate at just the GPU layer anymore. The hyperscalers at the top are distributing capex across seven distinct physical layers which means the picks and shovels opportunity set has expanded well beyond Nvidia into cooling, grid infrastructure, and power generation. Bullish on AI infrastructure, make sure to follow @MelvinInvests for more AI infrastructure insights, and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link below for more.

Investment demand through ETFs and COMEX speculators futures position in gold, silver, platinum and palladium

DB: Despite the recent pullback coming into the week CTA positioning in the US dollar was at the 93rd percentile to 2009.

New all time high on $AYA ... my top position in the silver mining sector. Whereas most miners are still down 30% from their all time highs, AYA is out performing because it is growing production organically. - Producing 6 million oz silver now at Zgounder, their first mine. - $250+ million in free cash flow - Building 2nd mine, Boumadine, which will produce 37 million oz silver equivalent (gold, silver, lead and zinc) in 2029 or 2030. - No stock dilution, 1st mine is so profitable that it funds the huge Boumadine project construction - Revenue and profits will increase by 6x or 7x, even if silver and gold prices stay at the current levels. If silver and gold go up from here, Aya has even more upside.

Is history repeating itself?

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Chips volatility

The best season for gold is coming.

x.com/i/article/2083…

“The next Warren Buffett” - 2020 “The next Warren Buffett” - 2022 “The next Warren Buffett” - 2026

The issue, for now, is that if you measure the “wordings” from a quantitative standpoint, they keep getting more hawkish (also today). It may all be a show (I am very tempted to think so), but we have the biggest disconnect between inflation expectations (and our nowcasts, btw) and the Fed rhetoric in the history of the time series. So by saying nothing, the Fed is currently a MAJOR TOLL on markets, as they allow real rates to fly up day in and day out. Warsh is the driver of the tech sell-off, even if he is trying to be the exact opposite of that.

Bitcoin vs. U.S. Midterm Elections🇺🇸 Bitcoin entered a bear market roughly one year before every U.S. midterm election. After the midterms, Bitcoin began a prolonged bull market. Every time a president won the election, Bitcoin rallied strongly. However, shortly after the presidential inauguration, the market was already approaching a major cycle top. Sometimes Bitcoin formed its price bottom just days before the U.S. midterm elections. Other times, the bottom came only days after them. But the craziest part is what happened with XRP. On the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election, XRP began a massive rally. Then, on his inauguration day, January 20, 2025, XRP reached its local top. 🤡 I am adding this crazy chart to @Alphractal! Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Incredible how this yield spread works well as a leading indicator. According solely to that, the ratio is set for a rebound, and then continuation of downward trend. Any rebound should be considered an interesting opportunity to go long value and short growth.

Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest

3 months ago

Ladies and gentlemen, That's the moment of truth for growth relative to value. Place your bets.

3 10 71 19K 32

Gold is due for an important mid-cycle low, as the half-period harmonic of its larger 13-1/2 month cycle. How gold does during the second half of the cycle will tell us about what lies ahead for 2027. Bulls will want to see right translation.

Don't ignore the Semiconductor (SOX) seasonal pattern. Following its June high, SOX historically enters a period of weakness that can last into October. The risk of SOX’s mean reversion accelerating is on the rise. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/823413482…

JPM chair of market and investment strategy Michael Cembalest, and strategist Jason Hunter see parallels in the markets to the late 1990's. If hyperscalers struggle to get past important technical resistance levels, “and come under renewed pressure for whatever reason over the near-term, while the semiconductor group is still trading below its key resistance, what started as a rotation within the AI-theme could feed into a more concerning unwind,” Hunter told clients on Wednesday. Comparing to the 1990's “you had this period in the market where the front end, which were the communications services stocks, started to flatline, but the infrastructure stocks kept going, and it was a bit of a head fake to the market,” Cembalest said. Currently, stocks of hyperscalers at the front end of the AI boom are stagnating with falls in free cash flow, while chips, infrastructure providers and optical networking gain. “There are some parallels here that I think we need to think about because you always want the caboose going fast, slower than the front of the engine, and that’s not what’s happening,” he said. The optimist view of this is that renewed support for those hyperscalers within those trading ranges “represents a rotation away from the crowded hardware segment of the market, which ultimately makes the broader AI theme more durable in the months and quarters ahead,” Hunter said. “The pessimists would highlight that a similar convergence occurred in the second quarter of 2000, which ultimately marked the top for the market cycle,” said the strategist. “From a technical perspective, both arguments have merit, which in our view makes the next few weeks of price action critical.” The SOX must clear short-term resistance of 12,769 to 13,333, following its pullback from a June high. If not, it could slide back to a zone of 9975-10554, meaning a bigger pullback of 28% to 32% from its June peak. That said, if the SOX lurches toward that lower support level in the next few weeks, they view that as “a tradable buying opportunity.” As for the hyperscalers, the strategists said breakouts through resistance zones “would represent an important bullish signal for that group after months of underperformance.” [more on that in the article]

MarketWatch @MarketWatch

3 weeks ago

AI stocks are echoing a 1990s market split. JPMorgan warns the next few weeks are critical. trib.al/tefkzoj

2 2 6 37K 4