Steve Rattnerr_ @_SteveRatner
Former head of Obama Auto Task Force. Wall Street financier. Contributing Writer to NY Times Op-Ed. Morning Joe Economic Analyst.🌐 stevenrattner.com New York Joined April 2009-
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PCE inflation last month was 3.7% — still almost double the Fed target — in stark contrast to Trump's promises. It was down from May given the brief lapse in the Iran War, but it will likely bounce back up in the next reading after Trump shredded his proposed peace deal.
While Americans struggle with rising gas prices and inflation, big oil is making billions from the Iran War. Oil industry profits have more than doubled in just a year, reaching their third highest level in history.
Trump promised to lower mortgage rates, but the 30-year rate remains stuck near 7%. The situation may get worse this year for homebuyers as analysts predict persistent inflation could lead the Fed to tighten monetary policy.
I previously reported that the growth rate and composition of Trump's wealth gain in office are unprecedented in recent history. Upon request, here is the data on the relative size of Trump's presidential windfall. The extent of his self-enrichment is even more.
Since President Trump's re-election, the vast majority of job growth has been in health care and education. Despite promises to re-shore industry through tariffs, over 100,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost.
Wage growth is down compared to last year just as inflation is spiking. That means workers' real wages are shrinking. To restore purchasing power, Trump and the Fed must act to reign in the price spike caused by the Iran War.
Consumer confidence fell to 91.2 in June — the Conference Board's index has now sat below its 1985 benchmark of 100 for 16 straight months. Americans were far more optimistic at the 2024 election (113) and when Trump took office (105). The mood keeps sliding.
Workers are quitting at the lowest rate since the pandemic shutdown — just 1.9% in May, below even pre-COVID levels. When people stop job-hopping, it's a sign they're nervous about the labor market.
Musk is right that many problems can't be solved just by "throwing money" at them. But US aid to fight AIDS, child hunger & other global plagues has one of the highest ROIs in government. The data is clear: cutting this $ means millions will die. The question is how many.
Trump criticized Obama for “loading [a plane] with $1.7 billion in cash” for Iran – money the U.S. was legally obligated to pay. Trump is proposing a nearly $500 billion windfall for the Iranian regime – to be fundraised by us and financed by our allies.
Treasury lifted oil sanctions on Iran up front—before a final deal is even signed. This waiver will deliver about $6 billion of bonus revenue to Iran over the 60-day negotiating window. Plus another $30 billion per year thereafter if a deal is signed.
Last night's big wins for Mamdani-backed candidates were driven by young college grads, often at odds with the party's traditional working-class & minority base. In NY-13, the less Hispanic and more college-educated a district, the more likely it was to vote for the challenger.
NY-12 was another tight race. Alex Bores won the precincts with the most young residents and won more precincts overall. Yet Micah Lasher edged him out for the win, thanks to higher turnout in the precincts he won.
FACT: DOGE failed to reduce the federal deficit. The deficit under Trump has remained near its highest level in American history outside of COVID: almost $2 trillion.
The top 1% now hold as much wealth as the entire bottom 90% of Americans combined — about 32% each. This is what runaway inequality looks like, according to the Fed's most recent data released this month.
The Iran War has already eclipsed the supposed savings from DOGE's ill-considered cuts to USAID. And that's just considering the direct costs of the war. Cutting government waste takes time and discipline, not reckless dismantling of life-saving global health programs.
It's not just Trump who has made a fortune off the Presidency. After Trump was reelected, Jared Kushner became a billionaire. His estimated net worth is up roughly 1,440% since 2009—compared with ~160% for the average U.S. household.
Kevin Warsh just chaired his first Fed meeting — and the Fed made a major course correction. This morning on @Morning_Joe, I'll go over how inflation came roaring back after the war, and why the Fed flipped from planning rate cuts to expecting a hike.
The Fed believes heightened inflation is back to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. Headline CPI just hit 4.2% — the fastest in over a year. Core PCE, a gauge the Fed actually targets, is stuck at 3.3%. Both are far above the 2% Fed goal.
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