Mark Davis @_TSDiaries

$IBRX just keeps adding fuel to the story. $50.7M Q2 product revenue. +92% YoY. $94.8M H1 revenue. +121% YoY. That is real commercial traction. Now add the pipeline: ANKTIVA expansion in bladder cancer Global regulatory expansion New oncology combinations And a potential radiation + immunotherapy trial The market may still be treating $IBRX like a speculative biotech. But the numbers are starting to tell a different story. Revenue is scaling. The addressable market is expanding. The pipeline is getting deeper. The next major catalyst? FDA + ANKTIVA expansion. $IBRX is getting interesting again.

🚨 $CAPR just got a BIG regulatory reset. FDA extended the Deramiocel PDUFA date to Nov. 22, 2026. Why? CAPR submitted: → 24-month HOPE-3 data → Additional robustness analyses → A refined indication focused on upper-limb function Then Oppenheimer upgraded $CAPR to Outperform with a $54 price target. The market is starting to ask a different question: What if Deramiocel doesn't need the original cardiomyopathy indication to become a major DMD therapy? November 22 is now the date. This biotech just got another shot.

🚨 $BBAI is quietly building a serious defense AI story. The latest move matters: Ret. U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Sean A. Gainey joined BigBear.ai’s board. Then look at the Q2 setup: → Revenue +13% YoY → 20+ new contract wins → Margins expanded → Full-year guidance reaffirmed → Defense + GenAI becoming the core growth engine This isn't just another “AI stock.” $BBAI is positioning itself at the intersection of: AI + Defense + National Security + Autonomous Warfare. At ~$3/share, the market is still debating whether this is a real turnaround. The next contract win could answer that question fast. $BBAI is one to watch.

$KEEL has a very different story today than it did a year ago. Bitcoin mining is being phased out. AI/HPC infrastructure is taking over. The company has: 2.2 GW power pipeline $819M liquidity $458M convertible financing 96 MW Sherbrooke AI/HPC project And now traders are watching for a potential new AI deal after KEEL jumped ~8% Tuesday. One more signal: CEO Benjamin Gagnon recently bought another 38,888 shares. The risk? Q2 revenue fell 50% YoY to $30.4M. So this is NOT a finished AI business yet. It's a bet on power + data centers + AI demand.

🚨 $ABVX is entering the most important phase of the story. The clinical thesis is no longer the only catalyst. → FDA gave positive Pre-NDA feedback → NDA filing still targeted for Q4 2026 → $920M public offering completed → Cash runway extended into 2029 → Obefazimod remains the core value driver Now the market is asking a much bigger question: Can obefazimod become a commercial blockbuster in ulcerative colitis? The science is compelling. The balance sheet is stronger. But at ~$117/share, expectations are already high. $ABVX isn’t waiting for a catalyst anymore. It IS the catalyst.

$ABCL just gave biotech investors a reason to pay attention. ABCL635 delivered statistically significant Phase 2 results in menopausal hot flashes — after a SINGLE dose. And the company isn't betting on one asset. Vertex + Jazz are now leveraging AbCellera's T-cell engager platform, bringing $100M+ in upfront payments from the two collaborations. Then comes the insider signal: A director reportedly bought roughly $570K of ABCL around $10.64. Clinical validation + Big Pharma partnerships + insider buying. That's a very different $ABCL than the market knew a few months ago.

The most noteworthy aspect of $OKLO recently isn't its stock price. It's that it's finally beginning to deliver on its nuclear power execution promises. Groves achieving first criticality means the project has moved from the design phase to the actual nuclear reactor stage. On the other hand: **$1.65 billion in cash** **Meta 1.2GW project** **Aurora continues to advance** **AI data centers are scrambling for electricity** This industry chain is becoming increasingly clear: **AI computing power ↑ → Electricity demand ↑ → Nuclear energy value ↑ → OKLO** The real catalyst is no longer whether "nuclear power will revive." It's: **Whether OKLO can actually build, run, and profit from Aurora.** Achieving this could completely rewrite the valuation logic.

For me, $ABVX is now more focused on its "next phase." Not on the efficacy of clinical data. But rather: **Phase 3 → NDA → FDA → Commercialization** Whether this entire chain can be completed. A 51% vs. 10.4% maintenance response rate is already impressive enough. Add to that approximately **$874 million in net financing**, extending the cash runway to 2029. The next major catalyst: **2026 Q4 NDA.** If safety remains stable and the FDA approval process goes smoothly, ABVX may transition from a highly volatile biotech stock to being repriced by the market as a potential blockbuster drug. The real drama may have just begun.

The most important thing to watch for $ONDS right now isn't the next order. It's the **profit inflection point**. $83.8M Q2 revenue $757M backlog $525M–$550M 2026 revenue guidance Meanwhile, the company is rapidly filling gaps through acquisitions: **Drones + Counter-Drone + ISR + AI Autonomous Combat** The problem is also clear: High growth is real, but so is the high valuation. If revenue materializes and EBITDA narrows rapidly, $ONDS may face a second valuation restructuring. **The story is there; now we wait for the results to prove it.**

$ONDS The most interesting thing about right now isn't just that "drones are hot." It’s the progression: $83.8M in quarterly revenue → $757M backlog → $525M–$550M full-year guidance → Q4 2026 profitability target. If these figures start materializing consistently, the market may gradually redefine ONDS from a mere "small-cap drone stock" into an integrated autonomous defense platform. However, I’m not ignoring the risks: Orders are the story. Revenue is the validation. Free cash flow is the ultimate answer. So, what I’m watching most closely next isn't the announcement of the next contract. It’s how much of that $757M backlog actually converts into real revenue over the coming quarters. That is what will determine whether the next leg of the $ONDS rally is driven by fundamentals or purely by sentiment.

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$TSLA — Tesla is no longer just selling cars. Nevada just approved Tesla for up to 5,000 paid Robotaxis in Clark County. Tesla says ~2,500 vehicles within a year would already be a strong result. Now look at the spending: Q2 CapEx: $5.8B 2026 CapEx: >$25B expected Q2 FCF: -$1.1B That's the bet. Tesla is spending billions before the high-margin AI business has fully arrived. My view: If Robotaxi scales, today’s CapEx starts looking like infrastructure investment. If it doesn't— $25B+ starts looking like an expensive experiment. The next Tesla valuation won't be decided by Model Y deliveries. It will be decided by whether Tesla can turn autonomy into recurring revenue. $TSLA is becoming an AI infrastructure bet disguised as an automaker.

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$ABCL — Here's what the market may be missing. The Phase 2 headline is impressive. But Phase 2 is not the finish line. ABCL635 delivered: 🔥 8.8 fewer hot flashes/day vs. 3.5 for placebo 🔥 84% of patients reported being “much” or “moderately” better vs. 27% on placebo. 🔥 Severity reduction: 58% vs. 12%. That's why the stock reacted so violently after the data. But here's my view: The upside case is Phase 3 validation. The downside case is simple: If the effect size shrinks in a larger study, the market can take the “best-in-class” narrative apart just as quickly. So I'm not chasing the headline. I'm watching one thing: Can ABCL635 reproduce the Phase 2 signal at scale? If yes → another rerating. If no → today's optimism gets repriced. Biotech doesn't reward good stories. It rewards reproducible data. #ABCL #ABCL635 #Biotech #WallStreet

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$IBRX traded in the $7.59–$7.79 range today, with an intraday volume of approximately 2.7 million shares—below the average volume of about 6.83 million shares. The real focus remains on the commercialization of ANKTIVA and its overseas expansion: 💰 Q2 net product revenue was $50.7 million, up 92% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter. 📈 Net product revenue for the first half of 2026 was $94.8 million, a 121% year-over-year increase. 🔥 This marks the eighth consecutive quarter of quarter-over-quarter growth since ANKTIVA's commercial launch. 🌍 ANKTIVA recently secured market authorization in the UAE—covering indications such as BCG-unresponsive NMIBC—further expanding its international commercial footprint. 💵 As of June 30, the company held approximately $357.4 million in cash and marketable securities, reflecting a significant improvement in its short-term financial position compared to earlier stages. 🎯 Next key regulatory milestone: The FDA has accepted the supplemental BLA for ANKTIVA plus BCG for papillary disease, with a PDUFA date of January 6, 2027.

$BYND intraday volatility today is worth watching. As of now, the stock is trading around $14.47, having ranged from a high of $15.00 to a low of $14.09—showing a marked increase in volatility. The catalyst today is the official launch of Beyond Immerse™ at Erewhon locations in Southern California, marking the company's attempt to expand from traditional plant-based meat into functional beverages. However, the market's primary concern remains the fundamentals: Can the new product drive new growth? My take: $BYND doesn't lack a compelling story right now. What it lacks is sustained growth. If the new business line can gradually contribute to revenue, today’s volatility could mark the beginning of a re-rating; if it turns out to be merely marketing noise, any rebound is likely to be suppressed by selling pressure. Right now, the stock is trading on the question of whether the transformation can actually deliver results. #BYND #Stocks #WallStreet #PlantBasedFood

🚨 $OUST — The lidar story is getting harder to ignore. Q2 revenue hit $55M, up 56% YoY. GAAP gross margin jumped to 49%. Lidar + camera shipments topped 17,000 units. That’s 14 straight quarters of product-revenue growth. My take: OUST still has a profitability problem. But the growth trajectory is real. Physical AI needs eyes. Ouster is selling them. Now the question is whether growth can finally outrun the losses.

🔥 $AXTI is becoming one of the wildest AI semiconductor plays. Record Q2. $47.6M revenue. +164% YoY. $0.19 adjusted EPS vs. $0.07 expected. And InP revenue just hit a record $30.7M as AI data-center optical demand accelerates. Now Wall Street is paying attention: 🏦 Bank of America increased its AXTI position 112%. 📈 Zacks: Strong Buy. My view: AI needs more than GPUs. It needs faster optical connectivity. AXTI is sitting right in that bottleneck. The numbers are starting to prove the thesis.

🚨 $VKTX — The obesity drug race just got more interesting. VK2735’s Phase 3 VANQUISH-1 & 2 trials are fully enrolled. The oral version is also moving toward Phase 3, with initiation expected in Q4 2026. Viking ended Q2 with roughly $502M in cash. My take: The market isn’t paying for today’s revenue. It’s pricing the probability that VK2735 can become a serious challenger in the multi-billion-dollar obesity market. The next catalyst is clinical data

🚨 $KEEL — The Bitcoin era is officially getting smaller. The AI bet is getting bigger. Q2 revenue fell 50% YoY to ~$30.4M. Net loss widened to about $65M. But management has now shut down all U.S. Bitcoin mining operations and is pushing capital toward AI/HPC infrastructure. (The Block) Here’s the trade: Near-term numbers look ugly. Long-term optionality is getting interesting. The stock is still around $3.29 after another 3.2% drop today. (Simply Wall St) My view: KEEL doesn't need another AI headline. It needs one thing: A real AI customer contract. That announcement could matter more than the next earnings report. #KEEL #AI #DataCenters #Stocks