antisoftrug @antisoftrug

learning how to be a human-centric person Tokyo Joined January 2023

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molson 🧠⚙️ @Molson_Hart

2 days ago

Vietnam will be a rich country. I have been here long enough and known the people well enough. It will 100% guaranteed be a rich country. Zero doubt in my mind.

OK Then @okaythenfuture

2 days ago

@Molson_Hart It’s great to have a state sanctioned monopoly even though your products are remarkably shitty! 😂 But let’s see a decade from now if the quality improves. Big question for Vietnam.

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

3 days ago

@xiaomustock nok有底的

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

4 days ago

@diamondhandjs not reaching the unlock criteria, yet.

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

a week ago

@jukan05 japanese cant seize opportunity

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

a week ago

@ShanghaoJin @starryx9 @BabybusFL 全屍所以citadel可以賣一部分鎖定利潤分屍每人一点点那每個party不會輕易賣籌碼

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

a week ago

@Musingblue 日本人by default就長這人格

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

a week ago

@AntonLaVay 好比打牌知道自己的相對強弱比有強的手牌重要。

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我一直非常不看好meta，1. 用ai提高广告效率是边际效益递减的，而且low hanging fruit效应很明显（最开始的时候最容易，越来越难）2. meta赖以为生的上漏斗广告对白领可选消费支出非常敏感（顺周期），而美国经济K型分化白领消费遭到非常沉重的打击（非常讽刺是meta的consumer base就是扎克伯格搞ai想取代的人，包括meta自己的员工）3. meta收益公式里有一个参数是人类的注意力，也就是人们在meta上花了多少时间，这个在ai时代是会受到压力的，我从4chan到reddit都碰到过人问为什么活跃度减少了然后有人回复现在人们都去跟ai对话了。你要承认人类社交很多时候还比不上ai，这个人类的注意力很有可能已经见顶了。以上是meta收入端的问题。支出端如果再因为搞ai 膨胀（本来meta reality lab就是烧钱无底洞，现在再加一个三流ai模型，更看不到尽头），就跟正反物质碰撞一样要发生大爆炸

Don Johnson @DonMiami3

a week ago

Data center me harder Zuck

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Steve Hou @stevehou

a week ago

Am I the only person who doesn’t think it terribly matters whether the Fed hikes tmrw? Even if the Fed did hike by surprise, which I don’t know how much of a genuine surprise it’d really be at current pricing, does it hurtf stocks or for that matter slow down the real economy? 10y has risen since the start of the year and fluctuated since April. Equities are fairly uncorrelated to macro as this point. It’s all “AI fundamentals”, presently AI model economics and ROI, and sentiments/positioning. If AI fundamentals were strong, even if the Fed hiked, it’d be brushed off. if AI fundamentals weaken, even if the Fed cut, stocks will be sold off. That being said, I’d be pretty surprised if the Fed did hike tmrw. Like why? Oh and the first move is almost always wrong.

Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital

a week ago

I don’t think the Fed will hike tomorrow. However, it’s a real possibility. A surprise rate hike will raise Warsh’s credibility, while also marking the end of the forward guidance era where policy moves have been signaled well in advance. Markets won’t like the end of that era.

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

2 weeks ago

@Chiyorin0908 南北的sky lounge不排也有吃的

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

2 weeks ago

@Liberfach0 the new Gurkha

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antisoftrug @antisoftrug

2 weeks ago

@MutsuAnjin not purity but rather the speed of integrating foreigners.

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桜理 @MutsuAnjin

2 weeks ago

At some point we do need to confront the elephant in the room that what’s driving Japanese immigration policy is not economic calculus or concern for social cohesion, but rather a eugenic desire to maintain ethnic purity.