Mike Holden @binaryfootball

Football Decision Architecture — better decisions through pattern recognition, cultural psychology and probability thinking. World Cup 2026 research now live. foxpunter.thrivecart.com/world-cup-2026… Valencia, Spain Joined April 2014

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

5 hours ago

@Doyley1208 I think Porto v Monaco in 2003 was the final that changed everything. They were never going to let that happen again.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

6 hours ago

Again, another decision that lends itself towards control and keeping the tournament on a preferred path. It will be someone’s job to stay aware of all the permutations that guide us towards the best knockout bracket from action to action through these final group games over the next four days. Many good punters routinely do these calculations alone now (for the sake of a grand here or there), so it would be naive to think FIFA don’t.

Miguel Delaney @MiguelDelaney

8 hours ago

Fifa’s shift from goal difference to head-to-head to decide groups is an inexplicably terrible decision that has needlessly killed or muted loads of final-round group games USA-Turkey would have tonnes on it, for one Now it’s a needless dead rubber independent.co.uk/sport/football…

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

5 hours ago

Makes total sense. These aren’t traditional stadiums either—bonkers designs some of them. The surroundings could be very distracting for anyone who plays on intuition and finds new or different sensory input draining. Especially that indoor gaff with the massive 360 screen that alters the lighting of the whole venue.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

2 days ago

Joe Hart's summary of the World Cup ball just then and its effect on goalkeepers was superb.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

6 hours ago

@DeanGarratt3 @TheJobber I’m trying not to think about permutations just yet, it’s hard enough trying to pick out match bets when there’s so little jeopardy… But if FIFA could quietly engineer an epic climax to the Messi v Ronaldo narrative, I’m sure they would!

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

7 hours ago

I don’t trust VAR one bit. It does what it’s supposed to do 99 times out of 100 — but who gets to decide the one iteration that keeps a tournament on the preferred track? Are these always mistakes? Or is it officials — competing for status and big call ups — knowing which side their bread is buttered and throwing in a dubious interpretation when it suits? As an Englishman, I feel like I can say this now when it has favoured England. But I think this all the time, it’s an unsettling feeling that’s with me in every match I watch. Punters know that one wrong call in 100 is an edge, especially when you’re able to play that edge in great volume at scale. Remember: we’re not only counting the wrong decisions made, there’s also the silent evidence — moments when VAR could intervene if it wanted to, but chooses not to. The game doesn’t need this. The spectacle is no better for it. So I’m left to conclude that the over-riding reason for its continued existence is the certainty and security it provides in avoiding outcomes that ultimately cost money in advertising and sponsorship.

Federico Manfredo @FedeManfredo

16 hours ago

En un mundo con tanta injusticia, necesitamos que el fútbol — el deporte del pueblo — nos de confianza en que la humanidad puede cambiar. No que vuelva a recordarnos el acoso de los poderosos sobre el resto del mundo. ¡Vergonzoso no cobrar este penal contando también con el VAR!

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

3 days ago

It’s been a joy to discover that a 48-team tournament with AI is much easier to navigate than a 24- or 32-team tournament without it.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

@GaryJMatthews Just in my own world doing my own thing. Don't worry about it.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

Rooney being really weird about Poch's clobber. This is funny demon behaviour — he literally couldn't stop talking about it. Rooney is self above tribe and goes by his own values of how to dress, 99.9% of the time. Poch is tribe above self and chooses clothes by paying close attention to fashion trends, knowing what's acceptable for a guy his age and respecting the opinions of others. Then one day, Rooney wakes up from not giving a fuck what anyone else thinks about how he dresses and sees a guy he respects wearing clothes that encapsulate this form of tribe acceptance behaviour. He's literally dressed the same — overshirt with a t-shirt underneath — but he knows that Poch does it better because Poch has more tribe data. And in this moment he can't hide the fact he wants to be like Poch. Meanwhile, we all cringe at home and wonder why he's being so weird about it. Sorry Wazza, but it's going to take more than a phone number and a few fashion tips to solve this problem in your life.

Match of the Day @BBCMOTD

5 days ago

"I love his look." ❤️ Wayne Rooney's a big fan of Mauricio Pochettino's style! 😄

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

He did bring it up about 3-4 times when it only needed to be said once. Watching it live, it started to get uncomfortable. I do personality profiling and this maps to a behaviour pattern I've seen many times before, so I chatted shit about it! I'm actually quite amused by how much it has triggered people.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

That Ref Cam might just be the catalyst for a new wave of youngsters wanting to become referees.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

@DanBean Haha. Classic. Poch would never ever dare go out like this!

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

I’m with you, Dan. Low stakes demon behaviour is to be encouraged — little and often. And I’m all for blokes respecting each other this way. It just hits as weird or awkward when you’re not ready for it. The more you exercise these sides of your personality, the more natural it becomes and less weird it looks. By the same token, it’s only right that Rooney’s mates hammer him about it next time they see him. Looking at some of the comments here, some people are taking this post — and themselves — a bit too seriously.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

@TMLowe00 😂 Nowt wrong with being a bit weird sometimes

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

@jackm00ney Who said Rooney’s weird?

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

@ronnabe All good mate. You?

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

Yesterday: three winners from four. Seven from eight in second round group games. 31 bets in. +11.62 units. ROI +37.5%. Same architecture every day. Cultural regions, climate, geography, conditions, historical patterns. The four cases below. Service still open.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

5 days ago

Four matches yesterday. Four bets. Four winners. 18 wins from 27 bets since June 11th. +9.72 units. ROI +36%. None of it built on narrative or gut feel. All of it built on a pre-tournament architecture — cultural regions, climate/geography, match conditions, historical patterns across forty years of World Cup data. Images attached show the rationale for each of yesterday's four selections. This is what the World Cup Intelligence service looks like from the inside. £195 for the rest of the tournament. Daily audio. Full reasoning. Link in bio.

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Mike Holden @binaryfootball

4 days ago

Is there anywhere to track the number of VAR interventions per match at this World Cup? I suspect it could be a key metric that tells us a lot about shifting priorities as the tournament progresses.