Bob's Payment Stock Substack @bobspaysubstack

Paul McGinley and Brandel Chamblee insufferable on the @GolfChannel holier than thou attitude is tiresome

Bob's Payment Stock Substack @bobspaysubstack

12 hours ago

I think golf loses a lot of credibility with this Bryson DeChambeau penalty. Legacy institutions do not like him and that comes through clearly in their ruling. Selective enforcement, different thresholds, arbitrary decisions.

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I think golf loses a lot of credibility with this Bryson DeChambeau penalty. Legacy institutions do not like him and that comes through clearly in their ruling. Selective enforcement, different thresholds, arbitrary decisions.

Indefensible. People should prepare for what’s coming from the left if Trump keeps this up.

*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

16 hours ago

TRUMP MEDIA PITCHED $100,000 MONTHLY FEE FOR FAST FEED OF PRESIDENT’S POSTS - FT

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$META: moving from a pure play, cash-gushing ads juggernaut to a capital intensive cloud business with formidable competitors, selling to customers that have an overpriced solution being increasingly commoditized. Doesn’t seem great. And yes, I’m long $META but selling into strength.

@George_Dubs_ Regulators may not allow Stripe to own half of Braintree so in that scenario Advent would buy Braintree and Stripe would get rest like PayPal’s consumer ecosystem (i.e. Venmo). Article implies regulatory approval is a concern so this is an option to get past that IF it happens

From this article, hard to tell how motivated $PYPL and Stripe are to actually make deal. Next bid will tell a lot. Other tidbits: Advent could take Braintree if $PYPL forced to breakup and $XYZ was part of initial consortium. finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks…

Nice round today. Starting my prep for the Champions Tour early

@Dr_Crossroads I make it a point to ask people about AI. Among non-investors, almost universal neutral-to-negative sentiment with power and water consumption cited as top concerns. It will absolutely be a political football.

Don't look now...but $ADP and $PAYX have traded back to 21x and 19x NTM EPS, respectively. While that's below historical averages (which were quite high), it seems more reasonable/fair in a post-AI world. What I'd say isn't reasonable is $INTU trading at <14x (SBC burdened), a big discount to $ADP and $PAYX despite $INTU's superior growth profile and ownership of QuickBooks, which, to me, is the most valuable property in SMB-land. I'm long $PAYX and $INTU.

Stocks are rotating today so may be wise to take w/grain of salt but very early read is payment stocks may be taking ‘half glass full’ approach to $PYPL bid - i.e., $$$ on sidelines to put floor under beaten down group???Would be welcome development. $GPN $FOUR $FISV

If you give $GPN and $FISV the same multiple Advent and Stripe are lowballing for $PYPL then you have $175 (+125%) and $95 (+90%) stocks, respectively. Is it wishful thinking? Maybe. But in many ways, volume streams for $GPN & $FISV are more durable than $PYPL IMO…I’m long $GPN

@stripe and advent int’l offering to go ‘halfsies’ on $PYPL for $53b or about 10.5x 2027 EPS. Deal won’t get done at that price imo but seems like someone wants to get ball rolling w/a formal response/counter. How this ends depends on how high @stripe and advent are willing to go. I don’t know the answer to that question. $PYPL is trading at 10% discount to offer price pre-market. Double-edged sword for payments companies: offer shows an underlying bid for this group, however weak it may be, is it better than nothing? vs. the potential competitive disruption of a combined $PYPL and @stripe… could be bad or good if it diverts stripe’s focus. $Adyen up a couple % in early trade, $XYZ and $FISV also indicated up a little pre-market. But it is way early.

Son asked to see my baseball card collection…now we’re talking

@nachunja Excellent!

$ACN down 8% on $IBM pre-announce (presumably) even though $IBM consulting revenue was up 1% cc, same as last quarter, and $IBM specifically called out strength in GenAI driving growth in consulting signings. Gotta love the indiscriminate selling this market delivers.

Last 3 Qs of credit card volume growth: $JPM 7.3%--8.7%--9.7% $BAC 3.8%--5.4%--7.4% $V $MA $AXP

Last 3 Qs of debit card volume growth: $JPM 7.2%--8.6%--10.5% $BAC 7.0%--8.4%--10.0% $WFC 4.8%--6.6%--8.4% Higher gas prices likely contributed some upside, but still a favorable trend. Have to think this bodes well for $CHYM and $XYZ Cash App plus $V and $MA

It’s really unfortunate what’s happened to youth sports. It’s way too serious, way too early. Big push for ‘select’ club teams at a young age hurts a lot of feelings (both kids and adults) and stunts potential of future superstars b/c they weren’t good enough when they were…7. Silly.

@rodrigoaan @tlaubers Don’t agree with that. Market is very much focused on the go forward business and what it can produce in terms of organic growth. Everything in the base that will drive future growth has been paid for and is accounted for in EV.

$ADYEN and $XYZ still trade at meaningful discounts to $TOST despite top-line growth profiles that are similar. $SHOP maintains the most premium multiple in payments and fintech.

@marc_slans Maybe a leverage play by the banks for next round of network fee negotiations

$V $MA Additional math/thoughts. $JPM $WFC $BAC generated >$1.7T of debit volume in 2025. All are exclusive or near-exclusive $V issuers. That's half of $V U.S. debit PV. Moving from capped (47bps) to uncapped (121bps) interchange would create an additional $12.7B of revenue for $JPM $WFC $BAC which would come directly/indirectly from the pockets of merchants. That would probably be a tough pill to swallow for politicians advocating for lower interchange.

Bob's Payment Stock Substack @bobspaysubstack

2 weeks ago

WSJ is reporting $BAC $JPM and $WFC are considering an acquisition of one of $FISV’s debit networks in order to generate higher interchange revenue—owning the network exempts an issuer from the cap on debit interchange reserved for large banks under the Durbin amendment. The

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